R. Valley braces for new power balance

The inclusion of William Ruto and Henry Kosgey on the list of suspected perpetrators of post-election violence is likely to have major repercussions on the political leadership in the Rift Valley, particularly in the Kalenjin community.

The two may be free to carry on with political business, but should the pre-trial chamber judges find they have a case to answer, they will be consumed by the International Criminal Court process.

So who takes over Kalenjin leadership should the two find themselves out of the political arena?

Being floated

A number of names are being floated, including that of Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto, Information minister Samuel Poghisio and Kanu vice-chairman Gideon Moi.

Those still in ODM like Roads minister Franklin Bett and his Agriculture counterpart Sally Kosgei seem to be disadvantaged as they have failed to consistently side with Mr Ruto.

Former minister Nicholas Biwott is considered a behind-the-scenes schemer with little capacity to inspire. Furthermore, despite his wealth and experience in Kalenjin politics, Mr Biwott belongs to the old order and has not been able to relate to the youth.

Mr Isaac Ruto has worked with Mr William Ruto since they started the campaign against the relocation of Mau Forest dwellers, against the new Constitution and, lately, in demonising the ICC.

A former Cabinet minister, he has been in Parliament for more than a decade and has distinguished himself as a fierce defender of his community. However, he does not have the resources and eloquence that the suspended Higher Education minister commands.

When contacted by the Sunday Nation, the Chepalungu MP was hesitant to discuss the issue of Rift Valley leadership, saying he is not the type to seek to benefit from the misfortune of others.

“Right now, there is nothing that has happened to warrant that kind of thinking. We are busy doing all we can to make sure that our brother does not suffer unnecessarily,” he said.

Make inroads

However, his influence is currently only felt in the South Rift. To make a go at Kalenjin leadership, he has to make inroads in other Kalenjin areas in the Rift Valley.

The other leader with potential for wide acceptance in the region is Mr Poghisio. Although considered an “outsider” in terms of mainstream Kalenjin politics, he has been close to Mr William Ruto since the referendum campaigns.

Mr Poghisio has been in Parliament since 1997. His main issue is that, like Mr Biwott, he works behind the scenes and avoids controversy.
But the main focus will be on Mr Moi who lost the Baringo Central seat in 2007 to Mr Sammy Mwaita.

After his retirement in 2002, former president Daniel arap Moi anointed Gideon to take over his seat in Baringo Central and expected him to carry on his legacy in Kanu and the Rift Valley.

The younger Moi has been trying to wrestle the Kanu leadership from Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta ostensibly to revive the fortunes of the party. But his influence in the region has not been as widespread as hoped, as he is viewed as elitist and unable to engage with voters at the grassroots level.

With the inclusion of Mr Kenyatta among The Hague Six, however, Mr Moi now seems to have the chance to ascend to the leadership of Kanu and revive the party that joined the PNU coalition as it was swept aside by the ODM wave in 2007.

Secondly, the rise of William Ruto soon after the former president retired slowed Mr Moi’s progress.

KKK alliance

Then enter the so-called KKK alliance between Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto. Some analysts see Ocampo’s move to target both Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta as a big blow to the KKK dream.

NGO official Ken Wafula says Mr Musyoka will have an uphill task winning countrywide support without the support of the two.

“The VP has not been steadfast in winning the electorate but has been leaning on other people’s shoulders. He may now be forced to think outside the box as opposed to kupitia katikati (going through the middle),” said Mr Wafula in reference to Mr Musyoka’s position as a beneficiary of the rivalry between President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga in the 2007 elections.

According to Baringo Central politician Yatich arap Namba, it will be difficult deciding who will be the long-term leader for the Kalenjin, particularly because the community often puts their hopes in only one person.

“We might end up having occasional leaders who only rise to the occasion whenever a major issue faces the community,” he said.

Mr Wafula welcomed Mr Ocampo’s move, saying it will put an end to the culture of political impunity in Kenya.

“Time has come for people to be held personally responsible for their actions. At least victims of the poll chaos will see justice being done,” said Mr Wafula.

Big impact

Eldoret-based Narc-Kenya official Kipkorir Menjo said Mr Ocampo’s move will have a big impact on Kalenjin politics.

“We may have a new political realignment altogether with a new crop of leaders. I foresee parties perceived to be small benefiting a lot. We should expect new faces for president,” said the politician.

“I fear the cases against the six may not be concluded before 2012 and this will therefore make the suspects ineligible to run for any public office.”

Baringo Central MP Sammy Mwaita, a close ally of Eldoret North MP William Ruto, termed Mr Ocampo’s list “incredible” and proposed more “independent and impartial investigations be conducted into the flare-ups that rocked the country”.