Raila seeks Nyachae support

Prime Minister Raila Odinga is reaching out to influential former Cabinet minister Simeon Nyachae as he continues to rebuild bridges ahead of the 2012 elections.

The Sunday Nation has established that Mr Odinga has met Mr Nyachae at least three times this year as he seeks to get support from the larger Kisii region.

Residents of the region voted for both President Kibaki and the PM in the 2007 election, but Mr Odinga is keen to bag the PNU supporters with the aim of ensuring that the Nyanza region votes as a bloc in the next election.

Mr Nyachae, a kingpin of Kisii politics, announced his retirement from politics in 2008 but his counsel holds considerable influence among the Kisii.
The Sunday Nation could not reach Mr Nyachae for comment but a source in Mr Odinga’s office who did not wish to be named discussing the PM’s delicate charm offensive said: “Mzee met Nyachae at a mutual friend’s house in February. They have held other meetings since.”

Although the region is thought to widely support ODM since five of the 10 MPs from there are members of the party, the presidential vote in the 2007 General Election was almost evenly split between Mr Odinga and President Kibaki.

Support for ODM in the region has been lukewarm since the 2008 post-election violence in which members of the community were evicted from parts of the country where ODM enjoyed massive support.

It has also emerged that Mr Odinga has lately developed a close working relationship with South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya of Ford People. Mr Nyamweya defeated former ODM treasurer Omingo Magara in a by-election last year. Mr Magara, who had bitterly fallen out with Mr Odinga, was widely tipped as Mr Nyachae’s successor as the Kisii political kingpin.

Notably, when House Speaker Kenneth Marende ordered the coalition partners to come up with a team to vet candidates for top jobs in the judiciary, joint chief whip Jakoyo Midiwo included Mr Nyamweya’s name on the ODM list. The Sunday Nation could not reach him for comment.
Currently, the PM’s campaign in the region is led by Ms Janet Ong’era, the director of the ODM secretariat, and Public Works minister Chris Obure.
This development marks political progress for Mr Odinga who has been struggling to hold his party together amidst an unprecedented rebellion by party MPs led by Eldoret North MP Mr William Ruto.
In a recent interview with the Sunday Nation, Mr Odinga said the party was aggressively broadening its base to regions such as Central and Eastern provinces particularly in Meru and Ukambani, Kisii and the Coast.

For the past one week, the PM has toured Meru where he issued 3,500 title deeds, Mombasa where he is said to have wooed Tourism minister Najib Balala back to the ODM fold and attended what was dubbed as reconciliation meeting in Uasin Gishu addressed by Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei last Friday.

Although he has stated that he no longer has any political interests, Mr Nyachae remains a powerful figure in Kisii politics, which he dominated for more than two decades. Nationally, his name is back in the news headlines through his son Charles Ayako, who was appointed by President Kibaki and Mr Odinga to head the powerful Commission on Implementation of the Constitution.

But no one among Kisii politicians has emerged to fill Mr Nyachae’s boots, the way Mr Ruto did among the Kalenjin after the retirement of President Moi.

Consequently, politicians from the region still seek Mr Nyachae’s advice on matters concerning the political destiny of the community. Besides that, Mr Nyachae is a wealthy man whose influence cuts across many communities.

Mr Odinga and Mr Nyachae are not known to be political friends. They have been at the opposing sides most of the time in their political careers. Thus, it remains to be seen whether Mr Nyachae will offer his support and whether that support will translate into votes next year.

Mr Odinga is a wily politician well known for his dramatic comebacks when everyone thought he was out. Lately, the tide seems to have turned in his favour with former rebels turning back to his fold. Dr Kosgei hinted last Friday that she might be ditching Mr Ruto’s side.

“I don’t want to say much but when you see me here with Raila, you know what it means. I am a leader who does not believe in lying,” said the Aldai MP, who hosted Mr Odinga in Uasin Gishu County – the backyard of his political rival Mr Ruto.

In Coast, Mr Balala, a member of the ODM Pentagon, was one of the first politicians to endorse Mr Odinga’s candidature in 2007. But soon after being appointed to the Cabinet, they fell out over what he termed dictatorial tendencies in the party. The fighting among Mombasa MPs – Mr Balala, Hassan Joho (Kisauni), Ramadhan Kajembe (Changamwe) and Masoud Mwahima (Likoni) – was threatening to cut ODM’s fortunes in the Coast region. While the reconciliation was praised, opinion is still divided on whether the truce will last.

Last week, while touring Meru, Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi said he would consider supporting Mr Odinga’s presidential campaign. In the meeting, also attended by Higher Education assistant minister Kilemi Mwiria, former Ntonyiri MP Maoka Maore also announced that he had defected to ODM.

Although his main point person in Ukambani remains Water minister Charity Ngilu, Mr Odinga has bolstered his efforts by wooing other influential personalities from the region. They include former MPs Kalembe Ndile (Kibwezi), Peter Maundu (Makueni) and Kilome politician Joseph Kimau.

Mr Ndile announced his defection to ODM during the PM’s tour of Ukambani last year. He received a standing ovation when he said he had decided to work with Mr Odinga, accusing PNU leaders of using and dumping him after the 2007 elections.

Others who accompanied the PM were Yatta MP Charles Kilonzo and former MPs Daudi Mwanzia, Agnes Ndetei, Francis Nyenze, Alphonce Musyoki and Grace Mwewa.

The PM is also said to have sent emissaries to one-time Makueni MP and former High Court judge Kassanga Mulwa and Mr Sam Muumbi, the chairman of the Kamba Council of Elders.

“We have broadened our base beyond our traditional strongholds. Opinion polls show that ODM now has presence in regions such as Central and Eastern provinces,” the PM told the Sunday Nation in an earlier interview.
Dr Kosgei’s “return” has been cited by Mr Odinga’s supporters as proof that their captain has not lost all support among the Kalenjin as it is widely thought.

Moi University lecturer and political analyst Kipchumba Murkommen points out three factors that might have influenced what he perceives to be Mr Odinga’s change of fortunes.

First, he says the PM’s critics have not had anything lately about which to attack him. “Raila’s support among the Kalenjin was arguably at its lowest when the Ocampo Six were going to The Hague. But, after that, there has been nothing else,” he said.

Mr Odinga has been blamed for the inclusion of Mr Ruto, Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey and radio presenter Joshua Sang on the list of six suspects wanted by the International Criminal Court over allegations of crimes against humanity.
But, while in Nandi, Mr Odinga absolved himself from blame.

“I was equally shocked at the composition of the list whose compilation I did not have a hand in,” he said.
Second, doubts emerged among the Kalenjin about the political union between Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta, which is thought to pose the greatest challenge to Mr Odinga’s presidential ambitions. This followed displeasure by Mr Ruto’s supporters that he was playing second fiddle to Mr Kenyatta in the arrangement. This prompted Mr Ruto to announce he would run for president.

Conciliatory tone

True to his nature of taking the fight to the opponent, Mr Odinga had earlier resorted to answering his critics. This approach raised temperatures considerably and gave his opponents more weapons to use against him. But he has since avoided confrontation and struck a conciliatory tone.

“This is the approach that the PM and ODM as a party should take,” said Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, who had been critical of Mr Odinga’s handling of the rebellion.

It remains to be seen whether Mr Odinga will win back the feverish support he enjoyed among the Kalenjin in the run up to the 2007 General Election or whether his new plan will yield solid gains.

Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto says it will not be easy for Mr Odinga to reclaim the support he enjoyed before. “The ground had already shifted, and those who are telling the PM otherwise are either lying to him or to themselves,” he said.