Raila’s ratings fall but still ahead of the pack

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s approval ratings have declined by 10 percentage points in the past six months.

However, the findings released by Synovate, a research firm, indicates the PM is still the most preferred presidential candidate with 38 per cent of Kenyans saying they would vote for him if elections were held today.

Mr Odinga’s rating stood at 48 per cent in October.

The PM is followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at 18 per cent, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka (13 per cent) and William Ruto (eight per cent).

Others are Gichugu MP Martha Karua (six per cent) and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa (three per cent). Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth garnered one per cent each.

The poll also shows the Uhuru-Ruto-Kalonzo alliance and the Raila-Mudavadi team would get almost equal votes.

Unfortunately for the two political camps, the votes would not be enough to win the elections as they will be below the 50+1 threshold required by the Constitution for a win.

The opposing teams will also be required to get at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the 47 counties.

According to the latest opinion poll released by Synovate, the two opposing camps would get around 42 per cent of the votes cast with the rest going to other candidates expected to vie for the presidency.

“We are staring at a presidential run-off. Unless something dramatic happens that changes the whole political landscape chances of a run-off in the next General Election are very high,” said Synovate’s analyst Tom Wolf.

However, Dr Wolf cautioned it was too early to predict how the political landscape would shape up given the impending ICC cases and the constitutional requirement that all presidential candidates must declare their running mate in advance.

“I don’t think any of the potential candidates are in a position to control history. All are held hostage to the coming events, one of them being the International Criminal Court.”

Dr Wolf said if the ICC confirmed charges against Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto in September, paving the way for a full trial,  VP Kalonzo might be the potential benefactor.

“However, if Uhuru and Ruto are cleared of the charges the three might face a difficult time deciding who will be the presidential candidate and who will be the running mate. There is a potential of a break-up if they do not agree among themselves.”

According to the study, Mr Odinga will also have tough decisions to make, which can either boost his political profile or dent his presidential ambition. “If Mr Odinga is seen as celebrating his political foes predicament at the ICC, then this could hurt him,” Dr Wolf said.

The PM has been in the spotlight, with the Uhuru-Ruto-Kalonzo alliance criticising him for all manner of ills facing them and Kenya in general.
Apart from the ICC cases, Dr Wolf said another factor that would influence  Mr Odinga’s candidacy would be choice of a  running mate.

The PM also has the challenge of putting his ODM party in order, as it is currently considered the least united party by 67 per cent of Kenyans.

However, Mr Odinga still enjoys the lion’s share of the support among  ODM supporters at 83 per cent compared to Mr Ruto’s 15, while the rest do not support either of the camps.

According to  the poll, despite the problems bedevilling  ODM, it is still the most popular party with 41 per cent of Kenyans identifying themselves with it, followed by PNU at 21 per cent, ODM Kenya (seven per cent), Kanu (four per cent) and Narc-Kenya (three per cent).

Others are New Ford Kenya (three per cent), UDM (two per cent), Shirikisho (two per cent), Narc (one per cent), Ford Kenya (one per cent)  and none (14 per cent).

The media’s performance has been rated as the best in the country. National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende comes second in the March 27 and April 1 poll.