Third force to rival Raila, Uhuru in poll

What you need to know:

  • It is not clear whether presidential aspirants Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Peter Kenneth (Kenya National Congress) and James Ole Kiyiapi (Restore and Build Kenya) will enter into coalitions ahead of the elections.
  • UDF and Wiper leaders and the technical teams around them are coming to the realisation that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are unlikely to change their arrangement for Mr Kenyatta to run for President with Mr Ruto as his running mate, an aide of Mr Mudavadi told the Daily Nation.
  • Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi have therefore been thrown together by necessity and are working to craft a coalition agreement.

After meetings and deal making, the fight to succeed President Kibaki appears to be shaping up into a contest between three big alliances and many independent parties.

Presidential aspirants William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta were on Wednesday on course to seal a final agreement to run under a coalition of their parties, The National Alliance and the United Republican Party.

Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi of the United Democratic Forum (UDF) and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Democratic Party) are gravitating towards an alliance and were on Wednesday meeting at the Serena Hotel with teams of advisors to craft an agreement. It was their third meeting in two weeks.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is set to re-launch his campaign strategy, is said to have slowed down on seeking alliances with other presidential candidates after some key leaders in the G7 Alliance declined his offers.

So far, Mr Odinga appears to have successfully pulled Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula to his side.

It is not clear whether presidential aspirants Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Peter Kenneth (Kenya National Congress), and James Ole Kiyiapi (Restore and Build Kenya) will enter into coalitions ahead of the elections.

UDF and Wiper leaders and the technical teams around them are coming to the realisation that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are unlikely to change their arrangement for Mr Kenyatta to run for President with Mr Ruto as his running mate, an aide of Mr Mudavadi told the Daily Nation. (READ: Ruto, Uhuru in fresh G7 push to beat Raila)

Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi have therefore been thrown together by necessity and are working to craft a coalition agreement. (READ: Kalonzo caught between a rock and hard place)

On Wednesday morning, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto met to discuss, what sources said was, the draft agreement that will guide their coalition. They also met in the afternoon, at an undisclosed location, immediately after Mr Ruto received Bomet MP Beatrice Kones to his URP party. (READ: ODM's Kones decamps to URP)

Mr Ruto refused to be drawn into the matter only saying: “I think that is a matter that we can discuss on another day.”

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are said to be concerned that the move by Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi to form their own alliance is likely to deny the G7 grouping a first round win in the elections.

Sources said on Wednesday that the two, even as they met to fine-tune their deal, are still trying to rope in either Mr Mudavadi or Mr Musyoka to ensure that they have the numbers to have a first-round win.

Mr Ruto has spoken to Mr Mudavadi and Wiper’s David Musila and Johnstone Muthama.

A team led by Belgut MP Charles Keter was in the afternoon expected to meet a team from Mr Musyoka’s Wiper to discuss the VP’s inclusion in the deal between Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta.

“As you know, we do not want to leave anyone out of the strategy to win the elections in the first round. The VP has been part of us and we do not want to keep him out,” a source who was unwilling to be quoted revealing the strategy said.

With the position of president and deputy president off the table, it is unclear what role in a Kenyatta-Ruto government Mr Musyoka would be offered that he and his allies would find acceptable.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have on their side presidential aspirants Eugene Wamalwa (New Ford Kenya), Charity Ngilu (Narc) and Mvita MP Najib Balala of the Republican Congress Party who is vying for the Mombasa senator’s seat.

At the Serena Hotel, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Musyoka held a two-hour meeting to discuss the draft coalition which was prepared by a six-member team in Mombasa last week.

The draft deals with the structure of government they would form if they win the next elections, the approach to campaigns and the agenda of their presidential campaign.