Uhuru opts for continuity at Treasury

By picking Mr Henry Rotich, an insider in the Treasury as the first Cabinet Secretary to the National Treasury, President Uhuru Kenyatta went for continuity in policy direction rather than change.

This was expected, given President Kenyatta’s tenure at the Treasury as Finance Minister under the Kibaki regime.

“We remain confident that the most likely outcome is minor tweaking of policy rather than a fundamental change of policy direction,” analysts at Citibank say in a report released three weeks ago.

However, despite his current position as the deputy director of economic affairs, Mr Rotich faces the daunting task of delivering the first budget under new constitutional provisions.

In this, Mr Rotich will find that he neither has the luxury of time nor options. By the end of this month, he will be required “to submit the budget estimates, the Appropriation Bill and any other Bills required to implement the National Government budget to the National Assembly” to the parliamentary budget committee.

The April 30 deadline is a requirement under Article 221 of the Constitution, one that Mr Rotich and his team must adhered to, but one he will find impossible to beat given that even Parliament is yet to constitute the all-powerful budget committee.

The timelines notwithstanding, the making of the budget will be the most difficult task ahead.

For a start, it is this budget that Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee government will rely on to finance campaign promises. Top on the list includes free solar laptops to all children joining class one in public schools by 2014, free maternity services, a free milk programme, and Sh6 billion to be set aside for loans to the youth.

In his inaugural speech, Mr Kenyatta set a deadline of 100 days within which his government will detail how to meet the agendas. The budget presents the most ideal place to release the details.

Mr Rotich will also be advised to have in mind that his tenure as the first Cabinet Secretary to the National Treasury will not be remembered by how well he steered the Jubilee government to meet its manifesto, but by how well he manages devolution of finances and setting up of the County Treasury.

The Treasury has, many times, succeeded in defending the status quo by opposing various initiatives proposed to change the management of the finance in line with the principles of devolution.

Mr Rotich’s biggest headache will thus be coming up with a budget that will entrench devolution and developing policy guidelines that support both levels of government.

“The budgetary allocations should be in line with the expenditure priorities of the country as per the Constitution, distribution of functions between the two levels of government and Vision 2030,” the Parliamentary Budget Office says in a report released last month.

He will also not forget that the country is set to become a middle income state by 2030.

His policies must thus be aimed at spurring economic growth with a focus on uplifting Kenyans from poverty.

He will seek to ensure the government raises enough tax revenue to finance operations, borrow to meet any deficit while inflation and the shilling are well taken care of.