What ails Uhuru-Ruto union?

It had been billed as a formidable alliance that could easily sweep its way to power in next year’s General Election.

But the alliance spearheaded by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto, and which includes five other regional kingpins, has run into early problems, with Mr Ruto hinting last week he may go it alone.

Political observers have for some time suggested that all was not well in the alliance, which also includes Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Tourism minister Najib Balala, Dujis MP Aden Duale, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa and former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara, and Mr Ruto seemed to confirm their suspicions.

Last Monday, Mr Ruto told Kass FM, which broadcasts in Kalenjin, that he would consider going it alone and later merge with the Uhuru camp in a run-off.

The move is said to have been prompted by callers and local civic leaders who told the MP that his dalliance with the DPM was headed nowhere.

The alliance

An MP allied to Mr Ruto who did not wish to be identified being negative about the alliance likened the Uhuru-Ruto alliance to that of retired President Moi and founding President Jomo Kenyatta when the former crossed over from Kaddu to join Kanu in 1964.

“The coming together of the two paved the way for the settling of the Kikuyu in Molo without the resettlement of members of the Kalenjin who had been earlier displaced to set up multi-national tea plantations in Kericho,” said the MP.

He said that, as a result, there was a feeling among Mr Ruto’s supporters that he was being used to penetrate the region and that the community would get nothing in return.

Members of the community have also expressed their concern that whereas Mr Ruto has long complained about Prime Minister Raila Odinga neglecting Mau Forest evictees, he has done little to help them.

“True, there was talk that President Kibaki had committed to resettling Mau evictees, but what has he done beyond that?

“Even as the government struggles to resettle post-election IDPs, there has been little attempt to resettle the Mau ones,” said Konoin ODM chairman Ronald Ng’eny.

The sensitivity of the land question in the Rift Valley can be traced back to the colonial days, says land expert Ibrahim Mwathane.

“Many peasants who had lost land to white settlers in Central Kenya moved to the Rift Valley as labourers.

“At the height of the struggle for independence, President Kenyatta’a government facilitated the sale of land previously owned by the fleeing settlers,” he said.

He added that most of the beneficiaries were individuals from Central, Nyanza and Western provinces.

“Years of stay in the Rift Valley by such people would later create a melting pot of diverse ethnic communities, a situation which has been exploited by politicians to create a senseless cycle of tribal violence seen in 1992, 1997 and 2007,” he writes in a conference paper titled “The contribution of land to the recent violence in Kenya: Implications for the ongoing land policy dialogue”, presented at a World Bank forum on land policy and administration.

Souring relationship

The reportedly souring relationship between Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta comes at a time when it is becoming clearer they are headed for a confirmation hearing at the International Criminal Court in September after the government lost its inadmissibility case.

University of Nairobi political scientist Dr Adams Oloo says the relationship between the two has become strained because their alliance was not based on any shared ideology but on a common problem and a common enemy.

“Both found themselves in the same boat after ICC prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo named them as suspects of the post-election violence.

Both hate Mr Odinga and they joined forces to try and stop him from ascending to the country’s presidency,” he said.

Another analyst, Mr Kipchumba Murkomen, said those in the grassroots in the Rift Valley were getting tired of the repeated anti-Raila messages and had started asking for a discussion of tangible issues.

And then there are those in the Uhuru camp who are suspicious of Mr Ruto’s intentions.

“There is a feeling in the Uhuru camp that the people bandied about in the G7 alliance as regional kingpins and equal competitors were really Ruto stooges, and would be his supporting cast when primaries are conducted,” said an MP allied to Mr Kenyatta who asked not to be named.

“Mr Ruto has consistently told Kalenjin supporters that he is not a fool and that he has the majority of supporters in the alliance.

“It is no secret that Mr Duale, Mr Balala and Mr Magara are Mr Ruto’s supporters rather than competitors,” said the MP.

Moi University don Prof Peter Simatei, however, cautioned that even though Mr Ruto may have managed to pull supporters from ODM, the harder part would be coming up with a common agenda that everyone in the alliance can support.

“Uhuru has proved a difficult sale given that the ethnicised discourse surrounding the purging of Kalenjin professionals after retired President Daniel Moi left State House in 2002 is still very strong in the grassroots,” said Prof Simatei.

He added that a common belief among Rift Valley voters is that Central Province politicians are only using Mr Ruto to recapture the presidency and will dump him thereafter.

Opportunistic moves

“If Ruto wants to go it alone, then this calculation is premised on the opportunistic moves made by Kalonzo in 2007.

“He will likely sponsor many Kalenjin MPs on the UDM outfit and negotiate for power with the frontrunner after the elections,” he said.

Prof Simatei, however, warned that such an arrangement has been complicated by the requirements of the new Constitution that a presidential contender identify his running mate beforehand.

But Mr Duale on Friday rubbished claims that there was a division in the alliance, saying it was a creation of the media and politicians engaged in wishful thinking.

“We have decided to change the approach and we have tasked each key principal to consolidate his position in his party first before coming out to merge with us,” said Mr Duale before adding that he and Mr Balala were in UDM and that their candidate was the Eldoret North MP.

“We are all members of a party.  Nobody should read any ill-motive, but anybody who fails to deliver his region has no business in the alliance,” he said.

“Mr Musyoka will consolidate Lower Eastern, Mr Kenyatta Mount Kenya region, Mr Ruto the Rift Valley, Mr Balala the coastal region, Mr Magara Gusii Nyanza while I am in charge of North Eastern and Upper Eastern,” said Mr Duale.

He said they had the options of forming an alliance after or before the primaries and that they had three key positions to share out.

“We have the president, the deputy president and the majority leader in Parliament. These should accommodate three top leaders.”

Mr Duale said the alliance was in the process of forming a technical committee comprising the top leaders’ representatives that will be tasked with organising joint rallies.

“We shall begin with Kapkatet in Kericho before we go to Eldoret, Mombasa and Garissa,” he said.

Resettlement

However, the resettlement of IDPs seems to have exposed the soft underbelly of the alliance.

While denying reports that their alliance was troubled, outspoken Cherang’any MP Joshua Kutuny admitted there was disquiet over the manner in which IDP resettlement had been conducted.

This, he said, prompted Rift Valley MPs to meet Mr Kenyatta, the Finance minister, and Special Programmes minister Esther Murugi twice last week.

He said it was wrong and insensitive for the government to resettle IDPs in areas where there were landless people.

“We sought to secure – and this was granted – that only those evicted from Mau and Embobut (mainly Kalenjins) would be settled in North Rift, while the Central and South Rift resettlement areas could be shared out on a 50-50 basis,” Mr Kutuny said.

Responding to reports the Uhuru-Ruto alliance was souring, Kipkelion MP Magerer Lang’at said he had warned that the country should not bank on peace built on political undertones.

“The new Constitution has well laid down ways of dispensing peace and justice, and the route to genuine peace lies in its faithful implementation and not alliances built on quicksand,” said Mr Lang’at.

Mr Kenyatta would not discuss the goings-on. “Mr Kenyatta doesn’t want to engage in speculation. Right now, he is engaged in serious work regarding the budget,” his spokesman, Mr Munyori Buku, said.