Will this be Raila’s Waterloo?

What you need to know:

  • Prime Minister’s opponents have proclaimed endgame for the man they acknowledge, albeit grudgingly, as a lion of political mass movements

For more than a decade, Kenya’s political field has been his for the playing and Prime Minister Raila Odinga has played it like a maestro.

In the process, he has aroused great mania and phobia in equal measure amongst his supporters and opponents respectively.

And now his opponents have proclaimed endgame for the man they also acknowledge, albeit grudgingly, as a lion of political mass movements in the country.

But his supporters caution that a rained-on lion should not be mistaken for a cat.

It is the continuing story of one of the most enigmatic men in Kenya’s politics. The Prime Minister has been the force behind the events that have shaped Kenya’s political landscape over the past decade.

His famous walkout from Kanu in the run-up to the 2002 General Election denied former President Moi’s handpicked successor Uhuru Kenyatta the presidency and gifted it to Mr Mwai Kibaki.

Two years later, he led a rebellion within the ruling Narc party in rejecting the proposed constitution in 2005, handing the government side, which supported the new law, a resounding defeat.

Following his sacking from the Cabinet as a result of the fallout, he launched a massive campaign against President Kibaki, and his supporters believe that it was only fraud in the 2007 General Election that denied him the top seat.

Well, the premiership was just supposed to be a holding ground as he awaited next year’s General Election in which everyone thought he would be the front runner for the presidency.

But Mr Odinga today finds himself in an unfamiliar position. He is in the eye of an unusual opposition storm fronted by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto that seems to have caught him flatfooted.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, one of his fiercest critics, said it is a case of the hunter turning the hunted.

“The same tactics he used to win power are the same we are employing to cut him down. The politics of this country used to revolve around him, but not anymore,” Mr Kutuny said.

For a man who has forged his political career by taking the fight to his opponents, it must be surprising to be on the receiving end of political machinations.

Mr Odinga’s ally turned fierce opponent William Ruto has even stated rather boldly that “I don’t know who will be Kenya’s next President, but I know who will not be”.

Although the latest opinion polls indicate that he remains favourite for the presidency next year, his ratings have been falling amidst the onslaught against him by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

Yet, for a man fabled as having an answer to every challenge thrown at him, it is surprising that Mr Odinga has not responded to the war being waged against him with an aggressive counter strategy as he has done in the past.

Consequently, some of his opponents believe that the political intricacies this time round are too complex and have left him without a plan.

Down, not out

But his foot soldiers say their general has nothing to fear. Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo says that although the PM appears to be down, he is not out yet.

“Just look at his past; he has always come out stronger when everyone thought he was done. He will bounce back and that rebound will land him in State House next year,” he said.

However, he said it was the wrong strategy for Mr Odinga to have engaged in the mudslinging with his opponents.

“I can say that is where he went wrong. He gave them the arsenal to hit him,” he said.

After slugging it out with his opponents for a while, an approach that momentarily raised the political temperatures considerably, he went quiet and has since taken a conciliatory tone.

“The fact that he has kept quiet does not mean he does not have a strategy,” said Rangwe MP Martin Ogindo. “In war a retreat does not mean a surrender, it means you are going to re-evaluate your strategies and that is what Raila is doing.”

This is a fact that even his harshest critics acknowledge. They know it would be foolhardy to conclude at this point that he is down and out.

Mr Odinga is a famed wily politician. Mr Gumbo likened him to a magician with a bagful of tricks and “you never quite know what trick he will pull next”.

So what is his strategy? No one knows exactly. Some say he does not have any, some say he is keeping it close to his chest, just watching the political game unfold.

But, true to his character as master of political strategy, Mr Odinga caused a buzz last week by suggesting he could support anyone else in ODM for the presidency.

Political observers say that Mr Odinga would most likely back Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. This would throw the spanner into the works for the budding alliance between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

Second fiddle

Salient tensions have been reported within the Uhuru-Ruto alliance with supporters of the latter saying they are unhappy with their man playing second fiddle to Mr Kenyatta.

It is interesting to note that a number of Kalenjin MPs said they would consider backing Mr Mudavadi’s candidature if he was to stand. Emuhaya’s Wilbur Otichillo says it is too early to pass judgement on his captain’s 2012 chances.

“Kenya’s politics is very fluid and changes like a tidal wave,” he said. “Those who have started campaigns this early will wear themselves out.”
But he said the first step the PM should take towards a comeback is to reach out to the rebels within ODM.

“I still believe we can be part of the same team if we sit down (and talk) because we have a lot in common with them,” he said. Whether this will be possible remains to be seen.

All this politicking would have made good politics were it not for the sad fact that, in their zeal to vanquish him, the anti-Raila campaigners have peppered their talk with unsavoury comments about him, which the National Cohesion and Integration and Commission warns could cause ethnic tensions.

Mr Odinga’s opponents have sought to reassure the public that the attacks are aimed solely at the PM and not his Luo community, as Mr Kenyatta explained in a political rally in Kiambu recently.

But in Kenya’s ethnic-based politics, that argument does not hold water, according to Mr Onesmus Murkommen, a law lecturer at Moi University and a political observer.

“In Kenya certain leaders embody the ideals of their respective communities and that is why they are kingpins where they come from. Therefore, an attack on these individuals is construed to be an attack on the larger community,” he said.

Post-election violence

The upshot of this mudslinging is that it is likely to result in one ethnic group, in this case the Luo, being a target of hate as were the Kikuyu in the run-up to the 2007 General Election. This is one of the factors that fanned the post-election violence.

And this would defeat the whole purpose of the power-sharing agreement, whose broad perspectives, engendered in Agenda Four articles, were supposed to forge a less tribal and a more united, cohesive nation.