Food crisis warning as rains ‘misbehave’

• Farmers anxious as crops in North Rift and Central wither due to poor rainfall

The food crisis in Kenya is set to worsen because of poor rains this season, and some relief agencies have expressed fears that half the country’s population could face starvation after the rains failed in the North Rift, the country’s bread basket.

ActionAid International, an anti-poverty agency, predicts that about 17 million people in Kenya are in danger of starvation due to drought and rising food prices.

But the government has disputed the figure. Special Programmes permanent secretary Ali Dawood has put the number of hungry Kenyans at not more than 10 million of which the government is feeding 2.6 million, up from 1.4 million.

Mr Dawood said the government, in recognition of the rising demand for food, has also increased the strategic grain reserve from 3 million bags of maize to 5 million bags.

On average, Kenyans consume 3 million 90kg bags of maize a month. The North Rift produces an average of 16 million bags annually. According to a report by Parliament’s Departmental Committee on Agriculture, current maize stocks in the country stand at 13.2 million bags.

The projected harvest is 1.2 million bags. A further 2 million bags is expected to be imported. Going by the monthly consumption of 3 million bags, the 14.4 million bags are projected to last until the end of August.

The Meteorological Department says Central Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley which the country depends for food have not received adequate rainfall to sustain crop production.

“As things stand now, the only places that have received normal amounts of rainfall are Western and Coast provinces. Everywhere else, the rainfall has been inadequate,” said the department’s deputy director Peter Ambenje.

The onset

According to another report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the onset of the long rains was late following a drier-than-normal January to March period.  

Due to the erratic rainfall, the Kenya Red Cross estimates that the next major crop harvest in the marginal agricultural districts that have been hardest hit by the current food shortage may be in March next year.

“Things will get more desperate with time. The dry spell we saw and the hunger that came with it might just be the beginning of what may turn out to be a severe drought,” Mr Ambenje warned.

Coupled with the global recession, massive job cuts and rising inflation, a food shortage will pose tremendous challenges for Kenya.

Dr Paul Guthiga, a researcher with Environment for Development Initiative, a subsidiary of Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (Kippra), sasya that these factors combined could result in a national security issue.

Angela Wauye, a food security coordinator at ActionAid International (Kenya), noted that at nearly Sh100 per 2kg packet, maize flour – Kenya’s staple food – is well out of reach of the majority of Kenyans.