Food crisis warning as rains ‘misbehave’

• Farmers anxious as crops in North Rift and Central wither due to poor rainfall

The food crisis in Kenya is set to worsen because of poor rains this season, and some relief agencies have expressed fears that half the country’s population could face starvation after the rains failed in the North Rift, the country’s bread basket.

ActionAid International, an anti-poverty agency, predicts that about 17 million people in Kenya are in danger of starvation due to drought and rising food prices.

But the government has disputed the figure. Special Programmes permanent secretary Ali Dawood has put the number of hungry Kenyans at not more than 10 million of which the government is feeding 2.6 million, up from 1.4 million.

Mr Dawood said the government, in recognition of the rising demand for food, has also increased the strategic grain reserve from 3 million bags of maize to 5 million bags.

On average, Kenyans consume 3 million 90kg bags of maize a month. The North Rift produces an average of 16 million bags annually. According to a report by Parliament’s Departmental Committee on Agriculture, current maize stocks in the country stand at 13.2 million bags.

The projected harvest is 1.2 million bags. A further 2 million bags is expected to be imported. Going by the monthly consumption of 3 million bags, the 14.4 million bags are projected to last until the end of August.

The Meteorological Department says Central Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley which the country depends for food have not received adequate rainfall to sustain crop production.

“As things stand now, the only places that have received normal amounts of rainfall are Western and Coast provinces. Everywhere else, the rainfall has been inadequate,” said the department’s deputy director Peter Ambenje.

The onset

According to another report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the onset of the long rains was late following a drier-than-normal January to March period.  

Due to the erratic rainfall, the Kenya Red Cross estimates that the next major crop harvest in the marginal agricultural districts that have been hardest hit by the current food shortage may be in March next year.

“Things will get more desperate with time. The dry spell we saw and the hunger that came with it might just be the beginning of what may turn out to be a severe drought,” Mr Ambenje warned.

Coupled with the global recession, massive job cuts and rising inflation, a food shortage will pose tremendous challenges for Kenya.

Dr Paul Guthiga, a researcher with Environment for Development Initiative, a subsidiary of Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (Kippra), sasya that these factors combined could result in a national security issue.

Angela Wauye, a food security coordinator at ActionAid International (Kenya), noted that at nearly Sh100 per 2kg packet, maize flour – Kenya’s staple food – is well out of reach of the majority of Kenyans.

“This means even with $2 a day very many Kenyans are struggling to put food on the table,” she said.

As withering crops proliferate in normally agriculturally productive areas, other places are receiving much more rain than expected. In Voi, for instance, the normal rainfall during the March-May rainy season is 153mm. So far, the area has received 137mm.

Mr Ambenje said the erratic nature of the rain makes it difficult for farmers to plan their farming activities.

“The rains may have been delayed, but in most cases, the end of the wet season is always on time. Their only hope lies in the oncoming short rains,” he said.

Scientists attribute this “disorganised” rain cycle to human activity that has resulted in climate change.

“The ecological system is not what it used to be. Annual average temperatures are increasing countrywide. We have more prolonged dry spells and more intense short rainfall. These extremes can only mean one thing – the balance of nature is not where it ought to be,” Mr Ambenje said.

The Meteorological Department has issued recommendations to rain-dependent industries.

“Farmers in areas that are receiving sufficient rainfall should be encouraged to maximise on crop production through appropriate and timely land-use management,” he said.

Even in areas where there might be a successful crop at the end of the planting season, experts warn that there is the danger of “greed drought.” This happens where there is enough rainfall to support crop production, but as soon as the crops mature, farmers sell them all to middlemen, only to suffer during the oncoming dry season.

“But in areas where deficient rainfall is expected farmers should make use of fast- maturing and drought-resistant crop varieties. Only this can salvage the situation next year,” he added.

Meanwhile, the government will continue to feed some 1.6 million children under the school feeding programme as well as the majority of the 2.5 million HIV-infected people. 

According to the Special Programmes PS, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui and Mwingi districts are now on relief supplies following crop failure. The ministry is also covering nearly 70 per cent of the larger Turkana district.

“We are paying particular attention to institutions like primary and secondary schools, especially in dry lands. More than 1.6 million students are benefiting from the school feeding programme,” Mr Dawood told the Sunday Nation.

Kenyans are also bracing for power and water rationing as water levels fall in the dams.

“The water heights in our dams are way below the optimum levels due to the failed rains,” said Mike Njeru of Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen).

KenGen has to look for other power sources that are more expensive than hydroelectricity. And the energy provider says it is hard-pressed to offer cheaper electricity.

“There is little we can do, but consumers can cushion themselves against a drastic rise in power bills by limiting their electricity use,” Mr Njeru said.

“Eventually, we will have to turn to geothermal power to help meet the country’s electricity demand.” More than 60 per cent of the company’s electricity is hydro-generated .

The Nairobi Water Company is revising rationing schedules because the dams do not have enough water, according to spokesman Mbaruku Vyakweli.

Ndakaini dam, the largest water reservoir for the city, is operating at 60 per cent capacity. Water levels in other dams supplying water to Nairobi are below 50 per cent.

– Additional reporting by Samwel Kumba