The Osama succession

The terrorist credited with planning the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Nairobi and Tanzania tops the list of likely successors to al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian eye surgeon and bin Laden’s trusted deputy for many years is tipped by the FBI as the most likely candidate to take over as leader of the most dreaded terrorist organisation in the world.

Immediately after the killing of bin Laden on Sunday night, a red banner declaring “Deceased” was splashed across the mugshot of the al Qaeda leader FBI’s ‘10 Most Wanted’ list.

The worlds most wanted man has been on the FBI list since October 2001, but his dramatic killing after one of the most intensive manhunts in history does not leave al Qaeda leaderless or rob it of the capacity to carry out deadly revenge attacks.

“The mastermind of the attacks on September 11, 2001 that killed thousands of innocent men, women and children has been killed,” the FBI said on its website.

It was unclear what would happen to the $27 million bounty — up to $25 million from the State Department and an additional $2 million from the Air Line Pilots Association and the Air Transport Association — on offer.

Bin Laden’s death leaves an opening on the fugitives list, but Paul Bresson, a spokesman for the FBI, said a replacement might not be named for some time.

“Any time one of the 10 Most Wanted fugitives comes off the list, there’s a lot of careful consideration of who would replace that individual,” Bresson said. “I don’t expect it will be filled immediately.”

One person who top the list of people likely to replace Osama bin Laden as the head of al Qaeda is his loyal right-hand man of many years.

Al Zawahiri, the group’s chief ideologue and believed by intelligence agencies to have been the operational brain behind the September 11 attacks, also carries on his head an FBI bounty of US$ 25 million for information leading to his capture or killing.

The Egyptian, who helped found the Islamic jihad militant group in his country, has twice escaped missile attacks by US drones.

Revise locations

He was thought to be hiding in the mountainous region along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but Sunday’s killing of bin Laden in Abbottabad, a city deep inside Pakistan, has forced US spy agencies to revise likely locations.

While the FBI hunts down likely bin Laden successors, Kenya and other East African countries must also be on the lookout for local terror operatives still at large.

The notorious head of al Qaeda’s local cell, Abdalla Fazul, blamed for the 1998 bombings in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam and the 2002 attack against the Paradise Hotel outside Mombasa, is believed to be based in lawless Somalia.

Omar Awadh Omar aka Abu Sahal has been named as second in command in the al Shabaab hierarchy.

Bilal El Berjawi, who was born in Lebanon and carries a British passport is named as Fazul’s principal assistant and Badrudin as his head of intelligence in Nairobi.

A Mr Jabil and Mohamed Ali are named as key missing persons who, in the al Shabaab network, report directly to Omar Awadh Omar.

Terror suspects arrested in connection with last year’s terrorist attacks in Uganda coordinated by the al Shabaab group were trained in Somalia.

Just before the Easter holidays Kenya police released the picture of a suspect identified only as “Abdullahi from Central Kenya” said to have sneaked into the country from Somalia to carry out terrorist attacks.

Other suspects in the police bulletin include Abass Hussein Nderitu who lives in California, Nairobi, Ibrahim Ruta alias Musyoki Kyondi, Abdulrahma Mutua Daud, Jeremiah Okumu alias Duda Black, Abaa Mohamed Mwai, and Juma Ayub Otit Were.

Al Qaeda leaders on the FBI’s most wanted list include Abu Yahya al-Libi, who started off with the Libyan Islamic fighting group; and Khalid al-Habib, thought to be either Egyptian or Moroccan and now believed to be al Qaeda’s chief of operations in Afghanistan.

The list also includes bin Laden’s son Saad bin Laden, who crossed over to Iran after US forces entered Kabul in 2001.

He is reported to be in northern Pakistan. Also in the top hierarchy of potential bin Laden successors are Midhat Mursi, an Egyptian chemist who oversees al Qaeda’s efforts to develop chemical and biological weapons, and Adam Gadahn, a US national said to be one of its leading operatives. 

There is also Nasser Abdul Karim Al-Wuhayshi, a former aide who fought alongside bin Laden in Tora Bora in 2001.

The two others are Fahd Mohammed al-Quso, believed to be holed up in North Waziristan, and who issued threats of revenge attacks following the killing of bin Laden, and Hamza al-Jawfi.

If the price on a fugitive’s head is any indication, a leading candidate for the al Qaeda succession might be al-Zawahiri, second only to bin Laden in the reward money offered for his capture or killing.