Poll: Support for new Kenya law drops to 57pc

Fifty seven per cent of Kenyans will vote to approve the proposed constitution at the referendum, an opinion poll shows.

A further 20pc will reject the proposed law, while 19pc are yet to make up their minds.

Only four per cent of Kenyans indicated that they will not vote during the August 4 referendum on a new constitution, according to the latest Synovate survey released Friday.

The poll carried out between May 22-28 showed that the issues of abortion (55pc), kadhi courts (37pc) and land (32pc) were the major reasons that the No respondents cited for opposing the new law. A total of 6,017 respondents represented the sample size.

"The Yes have the lead, but this gives the No team the opportunity to make their case," said Synovate managing director George Waititu during the release of the poll results at Laico Regency Hotel, Nairobi Friday.

Drop in Yes numbers

Interestingly, the results reflect a drop in the Yes numbers by seven points, which stood at 64pc in the previous Synovate poll in April. At the time, the No vote stood at 17 pc, representing a three point increase.

However, Mr Waititu said that while the April poll had drawn a sample from the entire Kenya population, the May was limited to only registered voters.

Last week, research firm Infotrak Harris released a poll that showed 63pc of Kenyans backing the proposed constitution and 21pc opposing it.

In the Synovate survey, however, about two thirds of those polled said they had made up their minds how they will vote on August 4. A majority of these (74pc) said they will support the document while 26pc will oppose it.

Mr Waititu attributed the drop to media coverage and heightened political activities.

"The amount of media coverage has increased. We have also seen politicians and religious leaders engaging Kenyans," he said.

North Eastern province has the most constitution backers, relative to the rest, at 88pc followed by Nyanza province at 76pc. Rift Valley (33pc) and Eastern (29pc) has the most No proponents.

The majority of those polled, 77pc, reported having already made up their minds on which way to cast their ballot with 19 pc being indecisive, while four percent said they will not vote.

Kenyans said the radio (58pc) was their most preferred medium of information on the constitution followed by television (43pc), friends and, or relatives (32pc) and print media (31pc). 17 pc of the respondents said they relied on politicians and religious leaders for information.

On the question: How much do you know about the draft constitution? only 10 pc said they knew 'a lot', 51pc said 'a little', 25 pc 'something', while 13pc reported having no knowledge on the document.

Some 48pc of Kenyan men said they either knew a lot or something about the proposed constitution as opposed to only 28pc of the women polled. Those living in urban areas (41pc) reported the same as opposed to those in rural areas (33pc).

Minor amendments

50pc of respondents aid the proposed constitution was a good document that required only minor amendments, while 27pc said it was a good constitution that did not need any amendment. Only 6 pc said it was a bad document that should be rejected altogether.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga remains the most preferred presidential candidate with 41pc of Kenyans reporting they would vote for him if elections were held today.

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (13pc), President Kibaki (12pc), Higher Education minister William Ruto (9c), Gichugu MP Martha Karua (7pc), Finance minister (3pc), Water minister Charity Ngilu (1pc) and Saboti legislator (1pc) were the next preferred candidates.

Kenyans said religious leaders should remain neutral in the constitutional debate at 40pc while 24pc said they should back the proposed constitution and 17pc saying they should oppose it.

Campaigns for or against the new law have intensified in recent weeks and pit the government, led by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, against the Church and politicians, largely drawn from the Rift Valley.

The two principals are leading the 'Yes' vote and have said Kenyans are ready for a new constitution after more than a two decade wait.

Higher Education minister and former president Moi are the most visible leaders in the 'No' camp and are mostly opposed to provision on land, while the Church has raised the red flag over abortion and the kadhi courts.

Intrigues

Intrigues have surrounded the August 4 vote with a constitutional court ruling that the inclusion of the kadhi courts in the constitution is illegal since it amounts favouring one religion over others.

However, the three-judge bench reserved their decision on their inclusion in the proposed constitution. Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo has said the controversial ruling will not affect the referendum process saying the vote will go on.

The Committee of Experts (CoE), which is mandated to carry out civic education, has been involved in a war of words with Treasury over release of funds to facilitate the process. It had requested Sh330 million, but only 100 million was made available.

The CoE accused Treasury of attempting to sabotage civic education by withholding funds, but Prime Minister Raila Odinga laid the matter to rest by announcing the release of Sh553m to the body on Thursday.