Move may shift political alliances ahead of the 2012 elections

The moment the International Criminal Court made its decision to Summon the six suspected authors of Kenya’s post election violence, a question that sprang to mind was the impact on the political careers of some key individuals.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are jointly the de-facto leaders of a political alliance partly born out of the ICC issue and dedicated to blocking Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s prospects of clinching the presidency in 2012.

Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey — the third member of Ocampo Six — is a former key Odinga ally who defected to the rebellious Ruto wing of the ODM party once he faced the double blow of being fingered by ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo and, like his Rift Valley colleague, being suspended from the Cabinet on corruption indictments.

An early response to the summonses yesterday came from Mr Odinga, whose general drift was that the ICC had acted and it was now time to put aside the prevailing political wrangles and allow the wheel of justice to take its course.

Almost as if in reaction to Mr Odinga, came what might be taken as the “official” government position — the decision announced by Attorney-General Amos Wako, Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo and Internal Security minister George Saitoti to file an application at the ICC challenging the summonses.

It was also made clear that the ongoing diplomatic offensive led by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka seeking United Nations Security Council deferral of the Kenya case would not be abandoned.

The Ocampo Six, themselves, promised to honour the summonses even as they pleaded innocence.

They would not have been surprised, however, that at the moment the ICC decision was announced, civil society groups were calling for suspension of any of the six still holding public office — a reference to Mr Kenyatta, Public Service head Francis Muthaura and Postmaster-General and former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali.

The other member of the six, and the only private citizen of the lot, is Kass FM presenter Joshua arap Sang.

Suspension by itself would be quite a blow, but may be only to the ego, for the bigger worry for Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, particularly, is a long judicial process at The Hague that limits their capacity for political activity in the run-up to the 2012 elections.

The two are declared presidential candidates targeting the Kikuyu and Kalenjin vote. The third member of their so-called KKK Alliance is the Vice-President, who is presumed to have the Kamba vote sewn up.

In the present scenario, the big question is what would happen if Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto were put away. Would they retain the capacity and influence to direct trends by remote control?

Their opponents, principally the Raila Odinga camp, might operate on the assumption that some major headaches have been removed opening the bloc votes to any takers.

But imprisonment or other forms of tribulations often lead to a persecution complex or martyrdom that sometimes strengthens, rather than weakens, politicians.

In Central Kenya and the race to inherit President Kibaki’s Kikuyu bloc, Mr Kenyatta seems to stand head and shoulder above putative challengers such as former Justice minister Martha Karua and Planning assistant minister Peter Kenneth; and a growing siege mentality might strengthen his hand even more.

Mr Ruto also seems unchallenged among the Kalenjin. Potential challengers such as former President Moi’s son, Gideon, have been reduced to irrelevance.

Some key Kalenjin ODM leaders who initially stood firmly with Mr Odinga, such as Mr Kosgey and Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei, have defected to Mr Ruto’s side, or like Roads minister Franklin Bett, become very guarded in their utterances.

Outside the individual ethnic blocs there is the KKK alliance. If he turns out to be the “last man standing” Mr Musyoka will make a strong pitch. It’s a prospect that seems to appall Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

If the two are shut out by the ICC process and they do not relish Mr Musyoka carrying the flag, then they might look for another standard-bearer. This is where prospects seem to be very thin, presenting the spectre of a leaderless and rudderless alliance.