Kenya to revise growth figures by September

Kenya is set to join Nigeria in releasing revised economic growth data by September.

Nigeria rebased its gross domestic product (GDP) figures last Sunday overtaking South Africa as the continent’s economic power house.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics acting director-general, Mr Zachary Mwangi, the country is revising its GDP figures to take into account fast growing segments like the information and communication technology, financial services industry and the telecoms.

“The revised series (2006 to 2013) annual and quarterly national accounts statistics are scheduled to be released in September,” Mr Mwangi said in a report to newsrooms.

The revision is meant to bring on board industries that have not been captured by the current data, which expected to result to the economy expanding by at least 20 per cent.

Nigeria rebasing resulted in a 89 per cent change.

A detailed analysis of the economy will be provided to explain the changes especially in the economic structure.

It was estimated in 2009, new base year in which Kenya’s GDP was to be revised that the country’s economy then was actually higher by a fifth of what had previously been stated. Initial results for the period between 2006 and 2011 showed revised GDPs rising by between 15 per cent and 25 per cent.

The international best practice stipulates that countries GDP should be revised after every five years. This is to take into account new development in their economies.

Improve per-capita

“The outcome of the revision will include improved coverage in some of the key growing sectors like communication (inclusion of mobile money and Internet services),” Mr Mwangi noted.

Among other things, the rebasing is likely to improve the average per-capita income which has trailed sub-Saharan African peers.

It is also set to improve fiscal and current account deficits when measured as a percentage of GDP, as well as Kenya’s public debt ratios.

Effect on citizens

Other African countries including Ghana, Zambia and South Africa have been overhauling their GDP data by deploying more accurate statistical methods and factoring in new sectors that have come on stream.

Analysts say that more countries on the continent would follow suit soon.

Analysts, however, argue that rebasing of GDP figures has no noticeable effect on citizens. However, the practice could potentially mean that inequalities are much wider than initially thought.

Even after the revision, Kenya’s economy still trails that of its peers like South Africa and Nigeria although the noticeable inequality may change with the exploitation of Kenya’s petroleum, coal, gas and titanium.