Opposition unity bid to shape 2017 poll outcome, says Citi

A last-minute attempt to build a broad-based coalition has increased the risk of a fallout among opposition parties and raised chances of the ruling Jubilee to retain power, global financial advisory firm Citi says.

The firm says in a report that the process of determining a joint opposition candidate is likely to undermine unity of the proposed super alliance.

“Our central scenario is that with the ruling Jubilee Party continuing to maintain a united front, while the opposition alliance remains subject to internal divisions, this is probably an election that is Jubilee’s to lose,” says the report titled, ‘‘Elections loom large: What to think about in East Africa as Kenya heads to the polls in August 2017’’.

The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) led by former prime minister Raila Odinga, former vice-president Kalonzo Musyoka and Senator Moses Wetang’ula has been working to build a super alliance bringing together other opposition figures, among them, former vice-president Musalia Mudavadi.

Jubilee has, on the other hand, dissolved most of its affiliates to operate as a formal party with President Uhuru Kenyatta as the presidential candidate and Deputy President William Ruto his running mate.

“We expect Mr Odinga to be the presidential candidate, but we see a three-way contest between Mr Mudavadi, Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetang’ula to be the vice-presidential candidate”, states the report.

Recent victory by opposition parties in a number of sub-Saharan Africa have, however, provided lessons that Cord could easily use to win the August 8 elections, the report says.

Opposition parties have recently won polls in Ghana, Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Senegal.

“If 2016 has taught us one political lesson, it may be that we should not discount the possibility of a surprise outcome,” David Cowan, Citi’s Africa economist, writes in the report.

“In the case of Kenya, a last minute defection of one of the parties in one of the two main election alliances to the other side or to a new alliance.”

The analysts see the shadow of the 2008 violence still looming large as politicians continue to stoke ethnic tensions in the ongoing voter registration drive.

“But we are still of the view that the most likely outcome is that violence would be limited, sporadic, and associated mostly with poor urban youths.” says the report.
“We think that this (violence) could be relatively easily contained.”

The report, however, foresees high chances of widespread unrest at county level triggered by close outcomes among rivals from same political coalitions with Kajiado, Marsabit, Meru, Mombasa, Narok and Kwale being cited as hotspots.

The report concludes: “Thinking about Kenyan politics, there are some concerns, but they should not be overstated.”