Tourism upbeat despite gloom

Kenya's tourism industry is donning an optimistic cap, projecting “steady growth” in 2010 in spite of possible setbacks highlighted in a new global report that gives a not-so-rosy outlook for travel business.

Despite forecasting a growth in international tourist arrivals of 3 to 4 per cent this year, the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), a specialised agency of the United Nations, said on Monday this “year of transformation” provides opportunities and serious risks to tourism.

The report says employment and economic growth in major source markets in Europe and the USA remain fragile, stimulus measures may be phased out due to increasing public deficits and increased taxation could put extra pressure on household and company budgets.

“This is year is going to be challenging but not as 2009,” said Jake Grieves-Cook, the chairman of the Kenya Tourist Board (KTB), the government-run organisation that markets tourism. “We expect a steady growth that may see us matching our best year, 2007.”

Others risks cited in the UNWTO report are volatile oil prices, influenza A (H1N1) virus and insecurity, which could slow international travel. “We are optimistic because we survived the recession in most of the markets last year and we have been dealing with the other risks such as the security issue for some time now,” said Mr Grieves-Cook.

The industry’s optimism stems from the 2009 performance, which earned the country Sh44.63 billion in the first eight months of the year. In November, total international arrivals by air and sea amounted to 83,344 compared to 65,503 recorded in November 2008, a 28.8 per cent increase.

It was also better than in November 2007 when arrivals closed at 79,085, making it the first time the industry’s visits exceeded 2007 arrivals in any month during the year. Tourism is one of Kenya’s biggest foreign exchange earners after tea and horticulture and was badly hit by the 2008 post-election violence and the global economic recession which reduced arrivals to a trickle.

“This is a year of stability and we expect the industry to grow to within 8-9 per cent of 2007,” said Mr Adam Jillo, the chairman of the Kenya Association of Tour Operators (KATO), a trade association of tour operators. In 2007, 1.8 million tourists arrived in the country earning it an estimated Sh65.4 billion in foreign currency.