Africa in growth mix in 2010

The African continent will see some of its economies rebound robustly while others shrink considerably in 2010, as the global economic crisis continues to take a toll, economists said on Wednesday.

However, a handful of African economies are expected to grow, in spite of the ongoing global recession.

Others are likely to see their economies shrink, Abebe Shimeles, principal research economist at the African Development Bank said in a speech.

“We project that in 2010, about 10 fast growing countries like Uganda, Ghana, Ethiopia, Liberia will do very well,” he said.

Southern Africa, which was hit hard by the global downturn in 2009, will rebound more slowly than other African countries.

The region will see an average growth rate of nearly 4 per cent in 2010 and 2011, according to the 2010 African Economic Outlook, a report published annually by the African Development Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

East Africa, which best withstood the recession, is forecast to achieve the continent’s highest growth, at a rate of more than 6 per cent this year and next year.

North and West Africa are expected to grow around 5 per cent and Central Africa should see about 4 per cent growth, the report said.

However, the economies of Namibia and Gabon are predicted to contract this year and next year, Mr Shimeles said.

The 2010 African Economic Outlook said Africa’s GDP growth dropped from around 6 per cent between 2006 and 2008 to 2.5 per cent in 2009. However, growth is expected to bounce back to 4.5 per cent in 2010 and 5.2 per cent in 2011.

“The financial crisis led many countries to experience contraction in GDP growth. Very much hit were the ones well integrated in the global economy, like the southern Africa region,” he said.

Mr Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte, head of the Europe, Africa and Middle East Desk at the OECD Development Center, said in the report that “the good news is the continent has proved resilient to the crisis.

Rebounding

The bad news is that, despite rebounding growth next year, the downturn could make it more difficult for some African countries to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving the number of people living in poverty by 2015”.

One thing that could cause the continent’s economy to sputter is a double dip recession — a second economic downturn that interrupts the current recovery — in the United States, which could pose a danger for Africa.

“Most African countries rely on exports to Europe and the United States. Now if the US recovery is not coming and sees a recession coming back, then the African countries definitely suffer,” he said in an interview with Xinhua after his speech.

The United States conducts a significant amount of trade with Africa, he noted.

“The US buys all of our coffee, most of our tea and most of our garments,” he said.