Rise in urban population a good sign, say experts

The number of Kenyans living in urban areas has increased by 26 per cent from 9.9 million in 1999 to 12.5 million in 2009, a trend economists say is inevitable but not ominous.

Although the number of people living in urban areas has gone up, the urban population as a percentage of the country total has declined from 34.5 per cent a decade ago to 32.4 per cent in 2009.

There were 38.6 million people counted in last year’s Population and Housing Census, representing a 35 per cent increase from (28.7 million) in the 1999 census.

Although the urban population of the capital Nairobi and Mombasa, the second largest town, has been on the decline over the last three decades, the numbers rose over the last decade.

While both cities accounted for 70 per cent of the entire urban population in 1969, their combined proportionate share dropped to 29 per cent in 1999 but rose to 32 per cent in 2009.

Granted that urbanisation is inevitable, the main challenge at present is not to slow the in-migration down but to learn how to deal with rapid growth, according to UN-Habitat.

The lead World Bank economist in Nairobi Wolfgang Fengler said that population growth and urbanisation go together, noting that economic development is closely correlated to urbanisation.

“No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanisation,” said Mr Fengler. “Population growth increases density and, together with rural-urban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration.”

And this is critical to achieving sustained growth because large urban centres allow for innovation and increased economies of scale. Companies can produce goods in larger numbers and more cheaply, serving a larger number of low-income customers, he said.

Bottom of the pyramid

Mr Fengler said there are companies in Kenya that have been benefiting from increasing population growth and density by targeting the large numbers of lower and lower-middle income groups - the “bottom of the pyramid”.

“Their business model is viable because they can serve a multi-million customer base which has increased by 25 per cent over the last 10 years and which continues to grow rapidly,” he said.

University of Nairobi economics lecturer Gerishon Ikiara said physical growth of urban areas is good for the economy because it could resolve concerns such as subdivision of agricultural land and large family sizes.

“Even the issue of land subdivision we are so much concerned about would be solved by urbanisation,” he told Sunday Nation.

“In Europe, with urbanisation people moved away from agriculture, and their shambas became bigger. Even for us the shamba size will start increasing if we grow manufacturing and service sectors.”

Mr Fengler said the last few decades have shown that larger populations and increased population density are no guarantee of success.

“However, it seems that the current pattern of population growth is not the main constraint to Africa’s development anymore and can even be a positive force,” he wrote in his blog.

There is need to invest in education

When releasing 2009 census results last week, Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 minister Wycliffe Oparanya said Kenya is adding a million people yearly to its already high population.

This high rate of population growth, he said, has adverse effects on spending on infrastructure, health, education, environment, water and other social and economic sectors.

“In order for the government to achieve Vision 2030 goals, there is need to invest in education to meet the demands of the growing school age population and the demand for future manpower,” said the minister.

Improve Kenya’s welfare

“In addition, critical investment will be required in family planning services, health and other social and economic sectors to improve the welfare of Kenyans.”

The total population aged five years and above is 32.7 million with males accounting for 50 per cent. Of these, the economically active population is 18 million (15.8 million employed and 2.2 million seeking work).

The inactive population is 12.8 million of which 7.2 million are females. About 1.9 million are in the last category of “undetermined” and comprise those who for some unspecified reasons never reported their activity status.

Proportion of the active population aged five years and above declined to 58 per cent in 2009 compared to 66 per cent in 1999. Males account for 53 per cent of the active population.

Similarly, the proportion of employed declined to 88 per cent in 2009 compared to 92 per cent in 1999. The proportion of the inactive population within the same period has risen from 34 per cent to 42 per cent with the largest proportion being full time students.

Females account for 56 per cent of the officially inactive population. The urban population accounts for 33 per cent of people aged five years and above. Of the active population, about three in 10 are in the urban areas. About one of every three persons in urban areas is active.