Mathare: Tribe and turnout key to win

Voter turnout in coalitions’ strongholds and splitting of votes in the Cord areas could determine who becomes the new MP for Mathare Constituency next week.

The has one of the most complex voting patterns in the city due to an almost even number of supporters for either the Jubilee and Cord coalitions.

Statistics in the last elections give Cord an advantage, leaving TNA’s candidate George Wanjohi who is enjoying a solid Jubilee block, praying for a split of votes by other fringe candidates from communities that ideally support the Cord Coalition.

Candidatures of former Kasarani MP William Omondi, former UDF candidate Sammy Mudanya (now on a Progressive Party of Kenya ticket), former student leader Fwamba C Fwamba (Maendeleo Party) and Billian Okoth Ojiwa (Labour Party of Kenya) is unsettling Cord campaign because their combined votes could work towards TNA’s advantage.

ODM’s Steven Kariuki, declared by Cord leader Raila Odinga as the “official candidate of the Cord coalition” is enjoying support from Wiper and Ford Kenya parties.

Wiper votes can be said to be in Mr Kariuki’s basket. The 2013 Wiper candidate Joseph Mbai is one of his key campaigners as well as Ngei MCA Daniel Mutiso, the only MCA from the Kamba community in Eastlands.

THREE PRONGED

The battle for Mathare’s numbers is three pronged. ODM enjoys dominance in three wards — Ngei (18,545 voters), Mabatini (14,298 voters) and Hospital (7, 498 voters) and where all MCAs are in ODM. The combined registered votes here are 40,343.

TNA is fully banking on Mlango Kubwa ward (18,676 voters) and Kiamaiko ward (15,919 voters), held by TNA MCAs. Here, there are 44,595 votes.

However, even if Huruma is held by an ODM MCA, the battle for its 15,919 votes could produce the swing votes. In the 2013 elections, Cord- allied MCA candidates had 7,709 combined votes while those with Jubilee parties (TNA, Narc, and URP) had a total of 5,766 votes.

“Whoever gets most votes in Huruma will carry the day,” says political scientist Njuiri Kimaru adding, Instructively, Mr Odinga trounced Mr Kenyatta in the presidential vote last year, garnering 37, 678 votes against the President’s 30,013 votes.

Mr Kimaru says the on-going acrimony between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga could work against Mr Kariuki. “There were disgruntled TNA supporters who would have chosen Mr Kariuki as they say he is also one of their own. But now, they have been incited against anything Cord,” says Mr Kimaru.

One of Jubilee’s biggest setbacks has been the absence of Nairobi Senator Mike Mbuvi Sonko from the race.