COUNTY POLITICS: Stage is set for major poll battle as rivals get party nod for Mombasa County's top seat

With all the three big parties – Orange Democratic Movement, Jubilee, Wiper — having named their candidates in race for Mombasa County governor’s seat, the stage is now set for big political battles in the county.

Governor Hassan Joho, will fly the ODM flag, after getting direct nomination for the ticket last month, while Wiper and Jubilee handed their candidates — secretary-general Hassan Omar and Suleiman Shahbal, direct tickets in the absence of challengers.

Nyali MP Hezron Awiti, got the nod from his party, the Vibrant Democratic Party, to go for the top seat, after decamping from Wiper, which he accused of favouring Mr Omar.

He accused Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka of betraying him by showing preference for Mr Omar and hatching a plot to rig him out in the nominations.

Though he is clearly one of the front-runners in the race, Governor Joho however still has the small matter of his academic credentials to contend with.

HIGHEST CHANCE

The High Court will rule on April 26 whether or not to stop police from arresting, charging and prosecuting him over his Form Four certificates.

According to Prof Morris Mbondenyi, a law expert, the Mombasa Governor stands the highest chance of being re-elected because of several factors working for him.

“Joho is the man to beat in Mombasa,” says Mbondenyi adding that political theatrics in the past few months and his “mastery of political schemes” have propelled Joho to an unprecedented popularity that is unbeatable in Mombasa for now.

“Mombasa County is home to populist politics, not development based. Joho has mastered this and taken advantage of it.

“He usually whips up the emotions of the crowds and tells them what they want to hear,” says the don. “His politics has nothing to do with building roads, provision of water, security, jobs or anything like that.

BELIEVES IN HANDOUTS

This is because the common voter is ignorant and believes in handouts; he values who gives what now,” adds the professor, who is deputy director Kenya School of Law in Nairobi.

“The intrigues and theatrics with the government have given Joho unprecedented popularity and prominence,” he goes on.

Prof Frank Matanga, a political scientist at Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology agrees with Prof Mbondenyi, but adds that the Governor has a development record to boot.

“If he is cleared, Joho’s development record will boost him. Also, like all incumbent leaders in Africa, Joho has a head start in the race. His performance and development record will also propel him,” says the law professor.

UNMATCHED BRAVERY

He adds that Joho’s “unmatched bravery” that saw him confront President Uhuru Kenyatta over alleged State projects in his county, had endeared him to the voters making him a front runner.

Another analyst Prof Rocha Chimera of Pwani University says Joho’s chances have been bolstered by the split in Wiper, which would have provided a formidable challenge to him.

“If Senator Omar and Mr Awiti stuck together and approached the race on a joint candidature, the force would be one to reckon with. But they blew the chance by going separate ways,” says Prof Chimera.

He says Kenyan politics remains tribal adding that Mr Awiti would have shared the Luo community votes with Mr Joho “even though members of the community in the region have ‘slightly been di-tribalised unlike their Nyanza relatives.’ 

“Mr Joho has realised the tribal factor and in fact, nominated a Mijikenda running mate in 2013. Even with the departure of Ms Hazel Katana, he is likely to pick another Mijikenda,” said Prof Chimera, adding that this factor puts the governor way ahead of the pack.

TELEVISION CAMPAIGNER
The analyst further views the Jubilee candidate Suleiman Shahbal as being “too elitist and business-minded.”

“Mr Shahbal has little touch with the grassroots and he is viewed by the masses as being on the other side of the fence,” says Prof Chimera.

Even with his Mijikenda running mate, Mr Ananiah Mwaboza, Mr Shahbal is viewed as “an outsider” who cannot mingle with the voters the way Mr Joho can because “he does not have the capacity to go down to the people and mobilise them.”

As for Senator Omar, the analysts argue that he has been too much of a social media/television campaigner.

“Like Shahbal, Omar might have problems. Both do not seem to hunt votes among the voters but from a distance; either in social media or the TV.

That’s where Joho beats them unless they change tact,” he said.

CLOSE FAMILY TIES

Both Joho and Omar have close family ties in Kwale County, with both their fathers said to be Digo, but with Arab and Bajuni mothers respectively.

“Although the two have tended to identify more with their mother’s sides, Mr Joho has seen the weight of being allied to his father’s side for the sake of the vote,” said Mr Chimera.

Mr Awiti on the other hand, the analysts argue, “is a hustler, really outgoing and a good and abrasive vote hunter.”

However, he does not have ODM leader Raila Odinga’s blessing, just like it was in 2013, they argue, a factor that has made it hard to marshal the Luo block vote in the county.

“Mr Awiti has worked hard to gain the Mijikenda votes by picking Mr Hassan Mwamtoa of the Digo community from Shikaadabu in Likoni constituency. This is a good strategy,” said Prof Chimera.