COUNTY POLITICS: Jubilee or Nasa? Big dilemma for Governor Ruto

A recent Nation cartoon that showed Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto making several rounds at a roundabout, undecided on whether to take the Jubilee Party or Nasa route, hit the nail on the head.

The outspoken governor is wearing a brave face but has a tough decision to make that could spur or break his political career.

Mr Ruto finds it difficult to openly work with Jubilee because of his heavy criticism and rebellion against it as an administration.

Joining the Opposition’s National Super Alliance (Nasa) would be suicidal for him considering that the electorate in the South Rift, where the governor claims huge stake, are largely Jubilee supporters based on the 2013 voting patterns.

YOUR CHOICE
The debate has grown louder as Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) aspirants demand that Mr Ruto declares a firm direction to be taken by the party to end the current state of confusion that has engulfed it.

Addressing party supporters in Sigowet/Soin Constituency in Kericho County early last month, Mr Ruto hinted that he would not force any presidential candidate on the people of the South Rift and told aspirants in CCM that they could campaign for any presidential candidate they fancy.

“We are strongly thinking of allowing aspirants to support the presidential candidate who is more popular in the areas in which they are seeking the seats,” the combative governor said.

But he later changed his mind and summoned Kipsigis elders and CCM aspirants to Bomet IAAF Stadium to discuss the thorny issue in an effort to reach a solution.

The meeting ended with those in attendance granting Mr Ruto the power to hold talks with all the presidential candidates and choose one who he believed means well for the country, especially on issues to do with devolution.

COUNTIES' FUNDS
The governor has often stated that he would give his backing to any of the presidential candidates who will offer to allocate at least 45 per cent of the annual budget to county governments.

Mr Ruto termed his former political ally, now arch-nemesis, Deputy President William Ruto, as a mere “political broker” in Rift Valley who is being used by President Uhuru Kenyatta to get re-elected in this year’s General Election.

Speaking in Kaborok, Belgut Constituency in Kericho County, during a ceremony to popularise CCM, Governor Ruto said he was also looking forward to broker the election of any presidential candidate who pledged to support devolution after the elections.

“William Ruto is campaigning for President Kenyatta. Just like me, the DP is a mere political broker. I am yet to decide who I will campaign for, but I will back a presidential aspirant who will pledge to allocate the highest amount of resources to devolution after being elected,” Mr Ruto added.

The governor however said the people of Rift Valley will finally have their say by voting for someone whom they believe will have their best interests at heart.

“Nobody can claim to have our votes automatically because we will not just vote haphazardly. People will vote for a president who will give them something in return by supporting devolution fully and not paying us mere lip-service,” he added.

DISSOLUTION OF URP
The former Chepalungu MP had in 2013 led an onslaught against Cord co-principal Raila Odinga and mobilised the mass exit of the Kalenjin from ODM saying it no longer served their interests.

After a spirited campaign that brought the Kalenjins together, the former Council of Governors’ chairman fell out with the Deputy President soon after the 2013 elections due to a raft of issues, one being what he termed as DP’s dictatorial tendencies in the United Republican Party (URP).

The governor was also against folding up of URP party, which they both started.

READ: Ruto and Moi supremacy wars intensify - VIDEO

The party was absorbed into Jubilee Party, which prompted the governor to form CCM.

The chest thumping governor has been on record saying he did not regret defying the DP, explaining that it was because of failure to resolve issues that were too serious to assume.

“And when we demanded neutrality, they thought it’s a supremacy war. I decided to form CCM and disentangle myself from certain party owners who have been threatening me with impeachment each time I spoke my mind,” he said.

CASTING RAILA OUT
In the first week of February, Mr Ruto hosted Nasa co-principals at Bomet Green Stadium, a move that many took to be his endearment to the Opposition.

Just before that, he hosted ODM leader Raila Odinga in his Tumoi home.

“Mr Odinga is my friend. We share similar ideologies and we would not mind working together if we agree."

But he would lack words to convince the Kalenjins to back Mr Odinga, who he spoke ill of in 2013 when he literally mobilised them out of ODM claiming that Mr Odinga, (who had been named Arap Mibei by elders in the run-up to the 2007 elections), was not the good person they thought he was.

“We are sorry to the Kalenjin that we led you to support Arap Mibei. We are really sorry, we have since ascertained that he is not Arap Mibei but Amollo,” he said.

In constant jabs against Mr Odinga and his team that led the governor to be named “Plogop” (gumboot), he kept dramatising how he would step into the sufuria and spoil the soup. He was referring to ODM.

KALENJINS SUPPORT JUBILEE
If he joins Nasa, Mr Ruto would yet make another apology to the Kalenjins and explain to them why Mr Odinga has suddenly become good and worth their support.

Pundits argue that for Mr Ruto to retain his image, he would better go it alone.

Former ODM Executive Director Magerer Langat said that the governor could be the reason the rebels keep hiding in the narrative that they only support President Kenyatta and not his deputy.

Mr Magerer, who is now a Jubilee die-hard, foresees doom for Mr Ruto.

He warned that the governor could end up in the cold just like him when he stuck with ODM in 2013, only to realise that the tide had changed in favour of URP.

“I am formerly a strong Opposition member and I went round saying we had an option. Basically, what Isaac is doing is what I did, but in terms of returning votes, it will not happen,” he said.

Mr Magerer, who is a Kipkelion West parliamentary aspirant, downplays the influence of Mr Ruto’s CCM and Kanu in the South Rift politics, saying that the Kalenjin votes were still intact in Jubilee.

“CCM is overrated while Kanu is dead in the South Rift. CCM tends to catch the headlines because it is an opposing camp. But the ground is fully in Jubilee. What is not felt completely is Kanu,” the aspirant said.

“CCM represents the people who have disagreed with either Jubilee leadership or a particular leader or fear being defeated in the Jubilee nominations. Otherwise, the Kalenjins are still intact."

VOICE OF PROTEST
The reason CCM is stronger than Kanu in the region, he advanced, is because the proponent (Governor Ruto) is a son of the region and a sitting governor, who is conveniently using his position to influence the people.

But Governor Ruto believes that his party guarantees him a second term in office, considering his win in Nyongores ward by-election and the spirited campaign they pulled with Kanu that sent jitters amongst Jubilee supporters in the Kericho by-elections.

He said CCM was registered and enjoyed equal rights like other political parties.

He refuted claims that the party was meant to divide the Kalenjin.

Maasai Mara University Political Science lecturer Joel Soi says Governor Ruto would play a major role in this election and will most likely succeed in denying the Jubilee Party some votes.

Mr Soi notes that the CCM had started off as the voice of protest by the Kipsigis who inhabit the South Rift and felt that the Jubilee government had ignored them.

“Governor Ruto has played his cards very well and made the Kipsigis people feel abandoned by Jubilee and provided CCM as an alternative home. It would be wrong for Jubilee to undermine his ability in shifting the ground,” Mr Soi posited.

2022 PRESIDENTIAL CHASE
The lecturer warns that unless DP Ruto acted fast and reached out to the Bomet County boss to recruit him back into his camp, the path towards his 2022 presidential ambitions could become more unsteady as Governor Ruto’s influence continues to grow in the South Rift.

With his popularity extending beyond Bomet County, the governor has been able to net more than 80 aspirants in Kericho, Nakuru and Narok Counties running for various seats.

But it remains to be seen whether they will give Jubilee a run for its money across the region as he has promised in his campaigns.