COUNTY POLITICS: Why Mbadi is scaling a tight rope in third re-election bid as Suba South MP

ODM National Chairman John Mbadi is walking a tight rope in his third attempt for re-election as Suba MP – now Suba South constituency.

Mr Mbadi, who is eyeing the governor’s seat in 2022, has to do all he can against all odds to win this election so as to enhance his chances for the gubernatorial seat.

The party could be in a dilemma following a contest pitting two ODM leader Raila Odinga’s key allies, Mr Mbadi against former Chief of Staff in the former Prime Minister’s office, Caroli Omondi.

Ms Jackline Nyandeje is also seeking to unseat Mr Mbadi, but the contest is viewed as a two-horse race between Mr Mbadi and Mr Omondi.

CAROLI'S WORRY
Despite being the party’s national chairman, Mr Mbadi, according to political players, has to contend with the rising popularity and the financial clout of Mr Omondi in the run-up to the ODM primaries slated for April 21.

Mr Omondi – who is said to be one of the party’s financiers and the landlord of the ODM headquarters – The Orange House – believes that in a free and fair contest, Mr Mbadi has no chance of re-election.

Mr Omondi had petitioned the National Elections Board (NEB) to set the record straight on four issues: whether the party had a preferred candidate, whether the board would conduct free and fair nominations, whether the certificate would be handed to the winner irrespective of party status and whether all the polling stations in the constituency would be used in the primaries.

It is believed that it is the board’s “positive response” to Mr Omondi that influenced his decision to run for the seat.

But Mr Mbadi downplayed Mr Omondi’s popularity terming him an underdog whom he had trounced in past election.

“Caroli is being overrated for no apparent reason. I beat him during past ODM primaries ahead of the 2013 elections...and I am confident of beating him again,” Mr Mbadi said.

He went on: “I am just working on the margin. I want to increase that margin for my guaranteed win.”

OGINGA A HURDLE
But Mr Omondi accuses Mr Mbadi of trying to solicit the support of senior ODM leaders to clinch the ticket.

“I can assure you in a free and fair contest I am confident of clinching the ODM ticket. What we are appealing for is fairness,” Mr Omondi said.

Mr Mbadi’s launch for a third bid at Magunga in his Constituency on March 20, attended by ODM director of political affairs Opiyo Wandayi, Mr Odinga’s elder brother and nominated MP Oburu Oginga, and Homa Bay ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, among other MPs, appeared to cause jitters among Suba elders.

During the launch, Dr Oginga publicly endorsed Mr Mbadi, arguing that the ODM leader wanted him back in Parliament, a move that did not go down well with some local elders.

Dr Oginga said: “I want to request you, people of Suba, to give our national chairman another term as we need him in the next Parliament.”

But some Suba elders accused Dr Oginga of being a stumbling block to ODM leader Raila Odinga’s quest for the presidency.

MBADI RUBBISHES ELDERS
Led by Simon Kayako, Clement Akondo and Jacob Mang’ira, the elders accused Dr Oginga of using his family’s influence to campaign for Mr Mbadi.

Mr Kayako said: “Dr Oginga’s words are perceived in this region as emanating from Raila hence the statement was aimed at influencing the Orange party to take sides in the race for Suba seat.”

But Mr Mbadi dismissed the elders and defended Dr Oginga, terming him “my personal friend and that cannot change because someone doesn’t like it”.

He said the elders were Mr Omondi’s sympathisers and not genuine members of the council.

“Let them go to the ground and campaign for Caroli instead of being preoccupied with boardroom meetings to discuss individuals,” Mr Mbadi said.

POLITICAL FACTORS
But aside from Mr Mbadi and Mr Omondi’s closeness to Mr Odinga, there are other political factors in Homa Bay County that could influence the parliamentary results.

Mr Omondi and the steady rise of gubernatorial aspirant Sam Wakiaga, who hails from Suba North constituency – formerly Mbita – are among factors bedevilling Mr Mbadi’s political path.

Being from Suba gives Mr Wakiaga an edge over his opponents – incumbent Governor Cyprian Awiti and Kasipul Kabondo MP Oyugi Magwanga – in the entire Suba-land.

Mr Mbadi’s outright campaign for Governor Awiti’s re-election pits him against Mr Wakiaga’s wave.

Mr Omondi is said to be leaning towards Mr Wakiaga in a bid to benefit from his influence in Suba-land.

Mr Mbadi is said not to be comfortable with Mr Wakiaga’s candidature for governor because he is equally eyeing the seat in 2022 and believes Mr Wakiaga’s win in this year’s election would automatically block his 2022 ambitions.