COUNTY POLITICS: Senator Sonko win dims Kenneth’s return

Mr Peter Kenneth losing to Mr Mike Sonko in the race for the Jubilee gubernatorial nomination in Nairobi presents an intriguing scenario beyond the fates of the two main contenders.

The cosmopolitan and polished Kenneth retreats to lick his wounds and contemplates a well-plotted political comeback nipped in the bud; while the controversial, flamboyant and rough-hewn Mike Sonko savours the prospects of occupying the number one seat in the capital city, if only he can get past incumbent Governor Evans Kidero of ODM.

OUTCOME REJECTED

With Mr Kenneth having rejected the outcome and demand a repeat even before the count was complete, his next move remains to be seen.

He could swallow the humiliation and retreat into political hibernation for the next five years.

Another option, especially if he truly believes he lost only because of a rigged process, will be to do what many other nomination losers are doing, that is seek the seat as an Independent candidate.

That would present an intriguing three-way race, but for the moment attention is on the shape of a battle between Mr Sonko and Dr Kidero, where all projections based on past voting patterns and party loyalties would have to be thrown out of the window.

SUCCESSION POLITICS
This is because of the intensely strong feelings expressed during the nomination campaigns: Mr Sonko’s supporters were saying that they would abandon Jubilee and vote for Dr Kidero if their man lost the ticket; and from the other side, those leaning towards Mr Kenneth were also vowing to vote against their party if the nominee was Mr Sonko.

Either way, Dr Kidero whose term has been rather lackluster and uninspiring was bound to be beneficiary of the fallout.

Meanwhile, the battle for the Jubilee ticket was not just about Kenneth and Sonko, but also about presidential succession politics, projected forward to 2022 when it is presumed that President Uhuru Kenyatta will complete a second and final term and hand over the baton to Deputy President William Ruto.

RUTO PRESIDENCY
Into that was intertwined ethnic rivalries within the Jubilee coalition; and the uncertainties and fears of middle-class Nairobi voters who recoil at the prospects of a Sonko in the governor’s mansion.

It was a notable move when Mr Kenneth, a former Gatanga MP and one of the fringe presidential candidates in 2013, came out of political sabbatical last October to announce his support for President Kenyatta’s re-election and seek a political comeback in the Jubilee fold.

His announcement immediately sent jitters in Deputy President Ruto’s camp.

Flashy Nairobi lawyer Donald Kipkorir, who has positioned himself on social media as a Ruto and Kalenjin community wind vane, was quick off the mark, igniting a Facebook debate on whether Mr Kenneth intended to challenge the Deputy President for the Jubilee presidential nomination in 2022.

POST-UHURU KENYATTA
A group of Kalenjin politicians — notably Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago, Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi and Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter — also raised the alarm, alleging that a powerful central Kenya clique was grooming Mr Kenneth to succeed President Kenyatta, vowing that the Kalenjin would not allow themselves to be “used and dumped”.

Mr Kenneth denied being part of any such move, but that was the climate in which he declared his candidacy for Nairobi Governor on the Jubilee ticket.

Fuelling Kalenjin fears of betrayal was the fact that a group of prominent central Kenya figures under aegis of a group branding itself the Kikuyu Council of Elders or a revived Gikuyu Embu Meru Association (Gema) was openly discussing the community political direction post-Uhuru Kenyatta.

POPULAR FIGURE
The group, fronted by Equity Bank chairman Peter Munga, was said to be shopping around for a suitable successor in Kikuyu political leadership, and Mr Kenneth’s entry seemed to offer a key piece in the puzzle.

It also happened that a group of prominent Kikuyu city politicians led by Starehe MP Maina Kamande rallied round his bid.

It all came to nought. With the nomination out of the way, the stage is set for a mouth-watering clash between Mr Sonko and Dr Kidero, which could yet take some twists and turns.

Mr Sonko is a very popular figure in Nairobi, attracting hordes of supporters with his unconventional ways.

SONKO RESCUE SQUAD

He attracts attention of the youth and the under-classes with his penchant for flashy jewellery, attire and haircuts; as well as for the energy and resources he puts into rapid reaction to all sorts of problems.

His Sonko Rescue Squad that provides freelance fire-fighting, rescue and ambulance services is the stuff of legend.

He is always at hand to bail out needy cases, and put his neck on the line defending hawkers, squatters, slum dwellers, matatu operators and others who come up against the city authorities.

While that earns him a great deal of admiration and support, it also puts off the middle classes who see in him an unschooled rabble-rouser ready to buy support using funds of dubious origin.

CITY WOES
His answer to the transport problem in Nairobi would be to turn Uhuru Park into a matatu stage.

He would also see nothing wrong opening up the Central Business District and green spaces such as City Park to unlicensed hawkers and informal settlement.

And his solution to housing shortage might be slum expansion.

Then there is that well-documented penchant for violence.

That is the picture that puts off a lot of people who yearn for a modern, clean, working metropolis matching the best in the world.

THUGGISH TENDENCIES
At the 2013 elections for instance, TNA candidate Ferdinand Waititu well placed to capture the governor’s office, but many party supporters switched sides and voted for Dr Kidero simply because they did not want City Hall to be under politician with confirmed thuggish tendencies.

That is the dilemma many Jubilee supporters again confront as they contemplate Governor Sonko.

Yet his numbers cannot be wished away.

In 2013, he captured the Nairobi Senate seat with an awesome 814,000 votes, the third highest recorded for any individual candidate in the country after President Kenyatta and his main challenger, Raila Odinga.

ANTI-SONKO VOTE

Theirs were from a national presidential vote, Mr Sonko’s from a single county.

His main challenger for the Senate was Bishop Margaret Wanjiru, then in ODM before her post-election defection to Jubilee, who trailed with a still impressive 526,000 votes.

There will be a significant anti-Sonko vote within Jubilee.

That is what Dr Kidero might have to rely on to retain his seat, but a limp and uninspiring leadership over the last few years might dilute his basket.

The computations change completely if Mr Kenneth re-enters the fray as an independent candidate.

INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE

If Mr Kenneth intends to re-enter the race for Nairobi Governor as an independent candidate, he will first have to take a long hard look at the factors behind his thrashing at the hands of Sonko.

When he resume active politics, the suave, urbane corporate executive seemed just like the medicine Nairobi needed to rescue it from the lukewarm regime of Dr Kidero and keep at bay the prospects of a coarse Sonko.

However from the word go, Mr Kenneth was thrust headlong into the middle of Jubilee succession politics where he was viewed with suspicion by the camp of Deputy President William Ruto.

It did not help that he came to be seen, rightly or wrongly, as the Kikuyu establishment candidate out to establish community hegemony over the capital city and also scuttle Mr Ruto’s 2022 presidential succession bid.

That was what the populist and wildly popular Sonko mobilised against. There was an early attempt by politicians, particularly from Kiambu, to have their own man as Nairobi governor. Their initial choice was Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru, who was also spokesman for the Central Kenya caucus in Parliament.

KIKUYU POWER ELITE

Along the way the plan changed and the same group started pushing the candidacy of Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, who was part of a bigger Jubilee strategy of trying to woo the sizeable Luhya voting bloc of western Kenya,

The project aborted after the Mr Wamalwa failed to excite enthusiasm because of his own indifferent approach.

Then Mr Kenneth entered the scene, to be welcomed warmly by the Murang’a power barons in Nairobi politics who have always been at odds with their Kiambu counterparts.

With suggestions that Mr Kenneth had the backing of the Kikuyu power elite, Mr Sonko, who enjoy his own warm relations with President Kenyatta and boasts a formidable power base in the city, launched a strong fightback.

His main message was that he would not be cowed by any central Kenya plot to control Nairobi, and that if denied the Jubilee ticket would go on his own.

He put together ‘Team Nairobi’, composed of himself, Mr Waweru, former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru and nominated MP Johnson Sakaja, all declared aspirants for the Jubilee gubernatorial ticket now uniting to resist Mr Kenneth who they charged was an outsider being imposed on the city.

2022 THREAT

Word by then was going round that Mr Kenneth enjoyed the patronage of President Kenyatta rather than just the Maina Kamanda, which caught the attention of key figures around Deputy President Ruto who saw a 2022 threat that needed to be neutralised early.

That essentially was the internal war in Jubilee that characterised the Sonko-Kenneth contest, which defied various attempts from the highest offices to have the two strike a deal.

The lesson for Mr Kenneth is that he entered a contest when not quite prepared for the internal dynamics of Jubilee rivalries.

The more he revelled in apparent endorsement from President Kenyatta, the more aggressively his foes—Senator Sonko’s Nairobi machine and Deputy President Ruto’s camp—mobilised to shut him out.

MIDDLE CLASS

Having the majority of city Jubilee Kikuyu MPs and MCA’s would have suggested that Mr Kenneth had at his command a solid grassroots machinery, but it appears that he did effectively do what is required to bring out the vote at party nominations. Professional PR and marketing blitzes and glossy policy papers might impress the middle class, but do not bring out the vote.

At party primaries voters must be given some extra incentive to come out and vote. This includes getting down and dirty on the campaign trail, dishing out inducements and organising transport, allowances and meals. It also means employing large armies of campaign workers to mobilisers voters on the ground and ensure they turn out at the appointed time.

That is the reality of grassroots politics.

Email: [email protected]Twitter @MachariaGaitho.