COUNTY POLITICS: Clan factor and Raila link to shape duel for top seats in Kisumu

It will be an epic battle in Kisumu, the melting pot of Luo Nyanza politics after Senator Anyang’ Nyong’o and Deputy governor Ruth Odinga announced their intention to dislodge Governor Jack Ranguma, all close allies of Cord leader and regional supremo Raila Odinga.

Running on a platform of uniting the county against a backdrop of claims of exclusionist policy pursued by the incumbent, the more than half a dozen aspirants for governor’s seat accuse Mr Ranguma of favouring his kinsmen from Kano as clannism resurfaces to play a role in the coming General Election, yet again.

The governor will be banking on what he achieved in the past four years to bolster his bid for re-election, with the first litmus test being the party nominations for the Orange Democratic Movement slated for next month. He needs to secure it if he is to successfully defend his seat.

Kisumu is an unflinching ODM backyard and as such, whoever bags the party’s ticket is already 80 per cent assured of victory. This explains why the stakes keep rising.

On the other hand, unfulfilled campaign pledges will weigh heavily on his shoulders, with his competitors making a kill out of them.

As is the case in many counties, the senate seat largely remains unattractive.

FOOD IMPORTS

One stubborn criticism is that four years after Mr Ranguma promised to make Kisumu an export economy, the region is still dependent on food imports, with little sign that stalled factories like Kicomi are about to be revived.

Unemployment remains the leading concern among the youth, something his opponents are already exploiting to their advantage.

“Definitely the public service can only absorb a few into employment. That is why when we campaigned in 2013, we affirmed our strong belief that the private sector remains the ultimate engine of growth and that risk-taking and innovative businesses deserve reward for their entrepreneurship,” Mr Ranguma fires back.

The dwindling fish stocks in Lake Victoria and other attendant needs like fish cooling plants were major campaign issues last time, yet from the look of things, they will be vital talking points five years later, since nothing much has changed.

Being part of the western sugar belt, the welfare of cane farmers and struggling millers will also feature prominently in campaign rallies.

The Auditor General’s reports, which have accused the executive arm of government of embezzling funds, will hand his competitors arsenal with devastating consequences to his re-election bid.

“Its been scandal after scandal for the last four years. There are so many dodgy deals as laid bare by the Auditor General’s reports,” charges Dr Hezron McObewa, an aspirant for governorship.

WAS BANKED

In 2015, the county anticipated Sh1.8 billion in revenue collection but the reported collection was Sh526 million. Yet out of this amount, only Sh492 million was banked. It remains a puzzle how Sh34 million was spent, with the top auditor raising questions about blatant theft under the governor’s watch.

But it would be naïve for the aspirants to assume that unseating an incumbent will be a walk in the park. Governors across the country have built huge war chests, and in a country where many people do not mind being bribed to vote, this is a big advantage.

In the subsequent fiscal year, it was the same story, as the auditor questioned Sh405 million the county claimed was paid to staff but which was above the total sum of payroll figures, Sh23 million that was revenue collected and not banked as well as a further Sh58 million that the unit did not disburse to the Level Five Hospital.

The Controller of Budget, Ms Agnes Odhiambo, laments that the devolved government’s local revenue collection has been way too low, amid claims some counties were under-declaring their actual collection to embezzle the bulk of it.

FOUR YEARS

The National Treasury has sent about Sh20 billion to the county in the last four years. This does not include conditional grants, which run into hundreds of millions of shillings.

Charging that he inherited a non-functional system, Mr Ranguma sought to illustrate his achievements, on which he will be relying to secure a second term in office.

“We have eight ambulances to boost health service delivery, eight ICU (intensive care units) and 12 dialysis machines purchased for Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital. We have also hired 800 health workers to address shortage in the facilities,” he said.

He is also basking in the glow of a World Bank report that ranked Kisumu as one of the most investor-friendly among the 47 counties.

“Our digital system has reduced the human tendency to delay processes through the official red tape.

“Because we have graded and gravelled more than 600kms of our rural and peri-urban roads, as well as opened new ones where none existed, apart from successfully lobbying national and international agencies to invest on national roads within Kisumu, our farmers can now take their produce to the market faster and cheaper,” he said.

WATER SUPPLY

The governor says he has improved water supply to all corners of the county.

He said installation of lighting has restored security.

Unlike in 2013 when Kisumu (East, West, Central and Seme) settled for senator, as Nyando, Muhoroni and Nyakach took the governor’s seat following a pact negotiated after botched primaries, there is no sign the formula will hold this time after Prof Nyong’o, the senator, threw his hat in the ring, seeking to unseat Mr Ranguma.

Second to the governor’s race is the parliamentary election, which has attracted wide interest. Newcomers are seeking to dethrone the incumbents.

Equally, the resources controlled by Members of County Assembly – which have turned them into some sort of demi-gods, plotting to impeach governors at will, then mostly blackmailing them, and in turn being bribed to drop the bids – have raised more premium on the seat, attracting many aspirants, with each of the 35 wards registering at least 10 hopefuls.

The rest of the governor aspirants want assurances from Mr Odinga that he will not favour his sister, Ms Odinga, in the contest.

HAS SPREAD

The chaotic primaries ahead of the 2013 General Election resulted in a forced marriage between Mr Ranguma and Ms Odinga his deputy, breeding more animosity, with each accusing the other of backstabbing them. This has spread to the other arms of government, where factions have emerged.

There is also the feeling that the government is in the firm grip of Mr Ranguma’s Kano clan, with employees owing their loyalty to the governor. An overriding criticism in the course of sourcing for this story is that when he is away, the government stops functioning. He denies this.

Through his humanitarian activities, McObewa, a medical doctor, already has a strong presence in almost all parts of the county, something he hopes to ride on to victory.

He will, however, be forced to contend with the fact that he and the incumbent come from the same region, a fact that could either see them split votes during the primaries to the advantage of their opponents, or affect him, were the people to say that the area has already had a taste of the seat and it is time to give a chance to a leader from a different place.

'IS KEY'

“I have sunk 18 boreholes, one in each sub-county because I know water is key to reducing the disease burden. I am an employer in Kisumu. I have also built over 10 schools in the region,” he says.

Dr Asaka Nyangara, a senior UN manager in Yeme, says he will use his vast international connections to take foreign investors to Kisumu to jumpstart factories as well as set up new ones.

Ms Odinga is fairly streetwise, a quality that almost saw her win the party ticket last time. Were it not for her brother’s intervention, she would have run for governor. There was a feeling that allowing her to run would have fostered voter apathy at a time Mr Odinga was running for president.

The fact that she will be judged jointly with Mr Ranguma, being his deputy, could work against her. She protests this.

“Before blaming me for any shortcomings in the system, look at my situation. I have no roles and no resources assigned to my office.”

She says the party must settle on someone who demonstrated commitment to it.

“There should be no room for those who want to buy tickets.”

Mr Miser, on the other hand, brings youthfulness and what he calls a freshness into the politics he says has been diluted by the pro-status quo politicians.

LONG HISTORY

Prof Nyong’o is an old hand and other than knowing his way around the party, he has a long personal history with Mr Odinga, a factor that could count for him.

There has also been a groundswell of rumours that governors from the region were toying with the idea of defecting to smaller parties which are affiliated to Cord after their demand to be handed direct tickets were flatly turned down. They fear the incumbency curse may not allow them to clinch the tickets.

Clan politics is yet another factor that will patently influence the poll outcome.

Some like the Kanyakwar, Kogony, Karateng’, Kajulu and Kanyamedha, claim they are the original “owners” of Kisumu and want to have their way, a demand that pits them against “immigrants” who undoubtedly control a big chunk of the economy and make up about a third of the total population of 500,000.

Security will also be a major campaign issue, with two illegal gangs China Squad and American Marines, being revived for political mobilisation already conducting their meetings in the open.

The “Marines”, who are ODM supporters, control areas around the main bus park, while the rival group, said to have businesses in the lower part of the town centre, are Jubilee supporters.