COUNTY POLITICS: Mudavadi and Wetang’ula equation to influence race

There is consensus in Bungoma that picking either Mr Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress) or Mr Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) as the National Super Alliance (Nasa) presidential candidate will change the political equation and ultimately decimate careers of those rooting for the ruling Jubilee coalition.

The view is shared across the political divide with supporters of President Uhuru Kenyatta like Governor Ken Lusaka – Jubilee’s chief pointman in the region – said to be keenly following the developments.

Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula both come from western with the latter being the Bungoma senator. Having none of them on the ticket will therefore hand the ruling party a fighting chance in a region it is struggling to gain a foothold in four years later.

The other contenders for the Nasa ticket are ODM’s Raila Odinga and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Other than the Nasa politics, regional balance and tribe will play a key role in determining whether the incumbent retains his seat or he will be floored by the other three aspirants who have already lined up to dislodge him.

Political contests in Bungoma  are sometimes determined by the north-south divide.  The north comprises of Mount Elgon, Kimilili, Tongaren, Webuye West and Webuye East constituencies while the south has Kabuchai, Sirisia, Kanduyi and Bumula.

PRODUCES GOVERNOR

In the 2013 election, the general consensus was that the north produces the governor while the south gets the senator.

Although the population is predominantly Bukusu, the Sabaot of Mount Elgon hold the swing vote and each candidate is courting them.

The Iteso, Tachoni of Webuye and the Batura of Bumula sub county are other small groups that will determine the winner.

Consumers Federation of Kenya secretary-general Stephen Mutoro, Kanduyi MP Alfred Khang’ati and businessman Wycliffe Wangamati have all declared interest in the coveted seat.

Mr Khang’ati and Mr Wangamati are seen as the front runners for the ODM and Ford-K tickets respectively.

Mr Mutoro, who was initially in Ford-K, has now shifted to ANC citing concerns about the fairness of the nomination process.

‘’Although I had paid my nomination fee, I’m leaving Ford-K because it does not have internal democracy and besides, Musalia is the seniormost politician in the Mulembe nation,’’ he said.

Like Mr Lusaka, Mr Wangamati and Mr Mutoro are each scouting for a running mate from Mount Elgon.

The governor says he will retain Mr Hillary Chongwony as his running mate.

Mr Khang’ati on the other hand has trained his eyes among the Iteso to get a deputy.

UPHILL TASK

Dr Godwin Siundu, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi and political analyst with knowledge of western politics, argues that it will be an uphill task for the forces supporting Jubilee to win.

“The fact is Bungoma has always been comfortable in the opposition save for between 2002 and 2007 and partly in the subsequent government. History has it so from the days of Masinde Muliro.”

The don argues that how the region votes will be dependent on political choices Senator Wetang’ula makes.

“He became the fulcrum of Bungoma politics after his resounding win in the 2013 by-election. Being the top dog, he will want to ride on this to vanquish his opponents,” he said.

He predicts that clan may not play a significant role in the polls compared to the past.

“The high cost of living will override clan lenses,” he says.

But cracks beginning to show in the opposition over joint nominations and zoning of Bungoma could work in Jubilee’s favour. ANC and Ford-K are embroiled in a tough duel with the latter against ANC fielding candidates in what it considers its home turf.

The County ANC secretary-general, Mr Martin Waliaula, ruled out joint nomination or zoning of Bungoma County as Ford-Kenya bastion.

'CANT' ACCEPT'

“ANC is very popular now in the county as seen from the defections witnessed currently. We can’t accept any form of a joint nomination at all, we better pull out of NASA,” he said.   

Jubilee led by Water Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Governor Lusaka have vowed to recapture the seat in the August 8 General Election while opposition aspirants have launched a series of rallies to popularise their bid.

 “I will camp here to ensure Governor Lusaka retains his seat, we will win the senatorial and Woman Rep seats. We can’t allow opposition leaders to win anything here,” Mr Wamalwa told the Nation on Tuesday.

Mr Lusaka has launched door-to-door campaigns in order to salvage his image from the numerous scandals that have hit his administration including the overpriced wheelbarrows at Sh109,000 each which has earned the region the moniker of ‘wheelbarrow county’.

With the growing concern among politicians outside Jubilee strongholds of Central and Rift Valley that the folding of parties affiliated to Jubilee was a blunder, some Jubilee supporters in the county argue that it would have been easier to do the president’s bidding through the defunct New Ford Kenya that natives view as theirs. Governor Lusaka was the New Ford Kenya party leader.

But the county chief insists that ‘the experiment’ would work.

'STRENGTHEN PARTY'

“The whole idea was to unite the country. It serves to strengthen party democracy and it is working,” he said.

Mr Lusaka admits that it will not be an easy race against Nasa.

“We may have to go back to the drawing board if the opposition candidate for the top seat comes from around,” he said without making it clear if this meant switching loyalty.

The governor hopes to ride on his achievements to secure a second term.

“I have used my Jubilee and national government networks to realise a number of tangible projects for my county and the issuance of charter for Kibabii University where the President is the chancellor, tarmacking of Chwele-Lwakhakha road is ongoing," he said. It is the same for Musikoma-Mungachi road. Misikhu-Naitiri-Brigadier road is also being tarmacked. The revival of Panpaper factory has also brought life back to Webuye, offering employment opportunities to the locals.”  

He is appealing for a second term arguing the projects he has initiated risk being abandoned by a new regime.

He lists what he considers the highlights of his tenure.

“When I took over, roads were in bad shape, both urban and rural roads. We have tarmacked a total of 35 km of roads. Chwele market, Kapsokwony and Cheptais. Most roads are today passable.  We have constructed 14 bridges. We have graded over 400 km and opened up more than 100km of roads.