#FRONTROW: Forget Valentine’s, the real election day is February 14

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) clerks at Kongowea office prepare for the mass voter registration that starts on Monday. PHOTO | LABAN WALLOGA | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • All this presupposes that the election will be free and fair and that the declared results will be free of manipulation and last-minute “strongholds”.
  • The battle over the Election Laws (Amendment) Act shouldn’t be the opening act of another acrimonious campaign period or a setup for contesting the results.
  • There’s also a possibility that there will be an earthshaking upset in August that none of us can foresee at this time. It might deliver a shocking defeat for President Kenyatta’s administration and deny them the almost assured second term.

Kenya’s next president will be elected by Tuesday, February 14, 2017, a whole six months before the actual election day. The long-suffering citizens of this country could break up with Uhuru Kenyatta and fall in love with another politician, or renew their pitifully broken relationship with their fourth president. Valentine’s Day is the last chance to register as a voter in this year’s polls, described as the one with the highest stakes ever in the nation’s history. On August 8, when people actually turn out to vote, they will only be formalising what will have been sealed on that February day. Short of a calamity of biblical proportions or electoral mischief of the 2007 scale, the Commander-In-Chief will be whoever got the most supporters to register.

Alternatively, Kenyans might teach the Opposition a tough lesson and reject its agenda and candidate by re-electing Jubilee. They are all scenarios at this stage but the only sure way to ensure that there are few surprises then is by securing the support base now. Make hay while the sun shines.

This is not just a dress rehearsal for possibly the most contested Kenyan election ever, this is the actual show. Despite claims to the contrary, Kenyans will vote by tribe and the candidate who gets the right ethnic arithmetic will be the winner this August. Kenyan politics at almost all levels is devoid of ideology and philosophy, so the manifestos parties copy-paste during election season are a waste of paper. There are few, if any, people who are combing through those documents and determining who to support based on how they intend to tackle climate change or unemployment. Look at the glossy nonsense that were the Jubilee and Cord manifestos in 2013. They were both discarded as quickly as possible after they were launched and everyone supported their tribal chief.

BETTER THAN THEY DID IN 2013

What every political head knows this year is that they need to do better than they did in 2013. There were 14.3 million registered voters in the last General Election, against a target of 18 million. Before the latest mass voter registration that started on Monday, there were 15.9 million registered voters. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) expects to add up to 6 million new voters to its roll by February 14 in a best-case scenario. If the turnout is particularly poor, which they hope won’t happen, CEO Ezra Chiloba said they hoped to register 4 million more. If they hit their target, there will be nearly 22 million people going to the polls in seven months. The highest ever in the country’s history.

There’s also a possibility that there will be an earthshaking upset in August that none of us can foresee at this time. It might deliver a shocking defeat for President Kenyatta’s administration and deny them the almost assured second term.

Some Kenyans travel upcountry to register in their home areas, as is their right. Many politicians also like to transfer voters from one region to another to increase their chances of winning a seat. When that fails, dead voters have been known resurrect to vote and then head straight back to the afterlife. They often need a combination of all these tricks to make it, which should make you wonder why it is so critical for them to be “elected” that they will stop at nothing. To win the lottery of public office in Kenya, there is no indiscretion too big or too taboo to prick their conscience. Winning those seats is the ticket to fabulous wealth, a lifetime of power and privilege as well as the most overused title in the world: honourable.

While it is difficult to predict the lower races, the presidential maths will certainly be concluded on February 14. If the Uhuruto duo convince enough of their support base in Central and Rift Valley to take up their voting rights, they are assured of five more years. On the other hand, if the Cord/Nasa brigade can marshall their troops to pick up their ID cards and turn up at one of those 24,613 registration centres, then the election is theirs to lose. All the political grandstanding, name calling, theatrics and public relations in the months ahead will be completely useless without duly registered voters. Once in place, all they need to do on August 8 is what Americans call getting out the vote, making sure they actually show up at polling stations.

All this presupposes that the election will be free and fair and that the declared results will be free of manipulation and last-minute “strongholds”. The battle over the Election Laws (Amendment) Act shouldn’t be the opening act of another acrimonious campaign period or a setup for contesting the results. There’s also a possibility that there will be an earthshaking upset in August that none of us can foresee at this time. It might deliver a shocking defeat for President Kenyatta’s administration and deny them the almost assured second term.

Alternatively, Kenyans might teach the Opposition a tough lesson and reject its agenda and candidate by re-electing Jubilee. They are all scenarios at this stage but the only sure way to ensure that there are few surprises then is by securing the support base now. Make hay while the sun shines.

 

Send your comments to [email protected]

 

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PREPARE FOR PRESIDENT MARK ZUCKERBERG

If you were the leader of 1.8 billion people, would you want to be the leader of the free world too? The answer is not clear but it seems to be heading in the direction of yes. Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg could be running for president of the United States if some recent moves are anything to go by. Many voices in Silicon Valley are starting to wonder why the sixth richest man in the world suddenly wants to visit all the Amerian states.

“My personal challenge for 2017 is to have visited and met people in every state in the US by the end of the year,” he posted on January 4. “After a tumultuous last year, my hope for this challenge is to get out and talk to more people about how they’re living, working and thinking about the future.”

Because he’s already been to one of those places, he has only 30 more states to go before the year is out. He has already changed how his Facebook stock works so that he can remain in control of the social network even if he is no longer the majority shareholder. His next post: POTUS?

 

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WHAT REALLY HAPPENED AT EL ADDE?

Over the last year, the government’s defence and communications people have made it unpatriotic to question exactly what happened during the El Adde attack in Somalia. Even the basic details about how many of our brave soldiers were killed on that dark morning has not been given.

Were any of them taken hostage and what is being done to secure their release? It was one of the worst defeats for the Kenya Defence Forces in modern history and suppressing information about it will not make it go away.

For the family of Corporal Mohammed Noor Ousman, they had to wait two whole months before they got his body. In those harrowing 60 days, they weren’t sure of his fate. Yet the family isn’t bitter with the situation or the KDF that he gave his life to.

Asking questions about a tragedy like this is as patriotic as it gets. All gave some, but some gave all.

 

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FEEDBACK: ON KENYANS’ TENDENCY TO DOCTOR THE TRUTH

 Larry, the major issue is neither the truth nor impartiality, but lack of objectivity because journalists know that the more controversial the story, the more public interest it will generate and that means more newspapers sold. The truth is secondary to sales.

Regarding the election amendment law and your debate with the senator, you and other journalists moderating this issue are neither factual nor neutral. No one is asking the hard questions. Some of the questions I would have wanted you to ask are:

For those who don’t want a manual back up: What specific electronic back-up is there that can be sourced and tested before august? What are its features? What are the cost, timeliness and budget implications? Success stories? Does the IEBC as currently constituted have the capacity and technical ability to deliver this?

For supporters of this law: When will this back-up be printed? By who? What are the safeguards? How has this been misused in the past and what measures are there to remedy these previous malpractices? How many trees have to be felled to facilitate these printouts? The media can play a role in diffusing the increasing rivalry between the ruling party and opposition by framing their questions objectively, especially to politicians, and their reporting of stories making the headlines. The truth isn’t who is the better debater is but facts laid bare and objectively discussed, not necessarily to win the other side, but to educate; then the public can chose from a point of knowledge, not influence.

Ken Mwangi

Larry,

My major worry about the mainstream media is that most of them favour negative stories about the country over positive ones. The media focus on politicians as if they are the only driving factors in this country. I long for the day the media will not rely on politicians for every issue that affects society. You will  agree with me that a most of the people media houses invite to debates and talk shows are politicians

. As we gear up for the elections, I hope the media will not play into the hands of politicians and allow themselves to be used to propagate lies and hatred against their opponents. The mainstream media can help bridge the rifts between the different communities. In view of the fact that there is a tenuous link between being neutral and telling the truth, the media should use their wisdom to protect the country and bring communities together, or burn it and lack an audience.

Abraham Maritim