#FRONTROW: Independents likely to stage a ‘revolution’ come August 8

Kinoti Gatobu was elected to the National Assembly by the  people of Buuri at the ripe old age of 26 in 2013. He ran and won as an independent in a Meru County overrun by a strong party with a veteran politician at the top. “Kajana” had neither a boldface name before that nor a lot of money, but he connected with the voters in a way none of his opponents could. He became one of just four Independents out of 290 MPs in the current House. The others are Kibwezi East’s Patrick Musimba, athlete Wesley Korir and John Serut from Mt Elgon.

This August, a revolution is coming and the big political parties had better start preparing to lose to unaffiliated candidates who felt disenfranchised by the system and went freelance.

Funyula MP Paul Otuoma was the first prominent politician to declare he would contest the Busia governorship as an independent after walking away from ODM.

Former presidential candidate Peter Kenneth has all but announced that he will take  the battle for Nairobi outside the Jubilee party after Mike Sonko beat him in a nomination he condemned.

Several others might follow suit, including Kisumu’s Jack Ranguma, Kirinyaga’s Joseph Ndathi, Taita Taveta’s John Mruttu and Nandi’s Cleophas Lagat. Several more senators, MPs and woman representatives are likely going back to voters without the backing of parties as the political climate changes. If they didn’t get the eviction notice from the primaries, some will be kicked out  on August 8.

VOTER REVOLT

That a voter revolt took place in the nominations in the last fortnight is not news. What is surprising is that nearly all losers blame irregularities in the process, imagined enemies and everything else but themselves for their humiliation.

Take Kiambu Governor, Mr William Kabogo, for instance. Two days after he confidently told me that he hadn’t lost an election in the five times he had run, he was vanquished by Ferdinand Waititu’s 353,604 vot-es to his 69,916. Now suppose you believe the governor’s gripe that someone does not want him in Kiambu, that mystery foe must have had the foresight to seriously top up Waititu’s votes before they were announced.

Either that, or the people of Kiambu just made it clear that it was time for him to hit the road. After all, it is that same county that voted for a Siaya native, Cyrus Omondi aka Cyro Gearbox, as the Kahawa Wendani Jubilee MCA candidate.

In Nandi, Senator Stephen Sang is well on his way to becoming possibly Kenya’s youngest governor. In the same county, only five members of the county assembly retained their seats in the primaries, leaving 25 out in the cold.

The woman representative and at least three MPs also failed to convince voters to give them another chance. A similar trend has been witnessed across the country, with prominent allies of President Kenyatta, Deputy President Ruto and ODM party leader Raila Odinga finding themselves in unfamiliar losing territory.

It is a slow start but Kenyan voters are starting to demand more from their elected representatives and are not afraid to drop them when they feel disappointed or disrespected. Every election season, thousands of aspirants promise change but hardly any of them delivers. This time, some 40,000 people filed papers with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission seeking to vie for the thousand or so seats up for grabs.

LONG-SUFFERING VOTER

The long-suffering Kenyan voter is showing who’s the boss this election season and no amount of bribes, sweet talk or excuses will save wayward politicians. For those of us who pontificate from air-conditioned studios with great lighting in Nairobi, it has also been startling  to see who made it and who didn’t. Despite his many faults, Sonko appears to have easily seen off the challenge by Peter Kenneth.

In Kirinyaga, the ghost of the NYS scandal did little to hurt Anne Waiguru’s chances of winning the governor primary, despite what social and traditional media might say.

Nairobi-based power centres in the media, tribal kingpins and State House operatives have all been exposed as out of touch and irrelevant. If a Ruto or Raila ally can be badly defeated in Siaya or Uasin Gishu, anything is possible in the months ahead.

It is no longer business as usual and citizens are taking their country back. They no longer want to be held hostage by a powerful class that treats them with contempt after election day. This might just turn out to be one of the biggest political upsets since the advent of multiparty politics in Kenya.

It won’t just be Independents winning seats in the strongholds of major parties, it will also be a full-blown rebellion against the established order, arrogant kingmakers and the status quo. The Times They Are A-Changin’.

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