The curse of numbers

Whatever happened to the phrase ‘the more the merrier’? The revelation last year that Kenya’s population has surpassed the 38 million mark did not bear any good tidings to all.

And we are not alone: African city populations are projected to more than triple over the next 40 years, according to a new UN-Habitat report, The State of African Cities 2010.

Today, most of Kenya’s urban dwellers find themselves in a rut, with issues weighing heavy on their backs as they toil for clean water, clean air, food, shelter and warmth.

Though the admirable growth of sectors like health care, agriculture, infrastructure and education has, over the years, resulted in a decline in mortality rates, food insecurity and supported the development of skills to sustain the different populations, Kenya cannot afford to thump its chest.

Thus, as the country basks in the glory of urbanisation, informal settlements continue to burst their temporary seams to shelter the flood of rural-urban immigrants in search of a better future. Giant stone buildings, big cars and white collar jobs, though elusive, beckon them to life in abject misery in towns.

Perhaps an image doing the rounds on-line best summarises the issue of over-population in Kenya — and Africa in general — as a result of rural-urban migration.

The picture of a groaning, over-loaded lorry, weighed down by African men piled on top of their mattresses and other personal belongings, paints ever so effectively the tragedy of the African population boom of the ’90s.

While the image elicits funny comments on Facebook and other social networks, the reality is worrying. In fact, the development we were once so proud of is now sauntering on its way to stagnation. There are no longer enough amenities to cater for the increasing figures.

And, with an urban growth rate of 3.4 per cent, soon, there will be no shelter or services to cater for the cities.

Before the end of this decade, Nairobi’s population of a little over three million (as at 2009) will have increased by more than a million, just like Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa.

Lagos, the second fastest growing city after Cairo (with about eight million), will have to make room for 3.5 million more.

Urgent action

The projected congestion in the report spells doom to many African cities, which risk turning into sweltering concrete jungles.

Indeed, no African government can afford to ignore the rapid urban transition that dictates the need for urgent action. Scarcity of land and resources stares Africa in the face, warns Remy Sietchiping, a Land and Tenure specialist.

There will be more competition over land-based resources such as water and fibre; and the cost of land, as a commodity and resource, will be un-affordable for most of urban and rural poor.

“It is critical that land policies be implemented to leverage the field, particularly catering for the needs of the most vulnerable and ‘undocumented’ — yet legitimate — land rights holders,” says Remy, adding that, due to the unsustainable pattern of urban sprawl, it will be important to manage land more efficiently.

Already, people in informal urban neighbourhoods dread the thought of situations such as house fires, which require fast evacuations, because poor planning makes emergency entry and exit a complicated issue.

“Cities must become priority areas for public policies, with hugely increased investments to build adequate governance capacities, equitable services delivery, affordable housing provision and better wealth distribution,” says Joan Clos, the Executive Director of UN-Habitat.

Then again, Africa’s leaders have been accused of favouritism and nepotism when it comes to administering resources equitably across their countries.

Kenya’s Minister of Water and Irrigation, Charity Ngilu, recently found herself at the centre of a storm over alleged flawed procurement procedures involving construction of water dams in her home district.

Early this year, Zimbabwe’s Energy and Power Development minister, Elias Mudzuri, Home Affairs co-minister Giles Mutsekwa and Deputy Mines minister Murisi Zwizwai were named as having been under investigation by a party committee for corrupt activities, reports www.allafrica.com.

During the 2008 International Symposium on Informal Settlements held in Cairo, the need for African cities to be clear about institutional arrangements was expressed.

“Many cities have competing jurisdictions, and often no decisions are made because no one knows who is in charge.

It must be clear who has the authority over budget, decision-making, resources, revenue and investment decisions,” said Cities Alliance Programme Manager, William Cobbett.

This rapid population growth will merely propel slum proliferation and steep inequality, just as the report highlights. If the numbers are translated as human resource targeted at economic growth, then the rapid urbanisation will have benefited the continent.

There is, therefore, need for proper futuristic planning. And good planning is dependent on research, such as a country’s census.

However, it is virtually impossible to know the actual number of people living in slums because they are highly mobile.

As a result, it is difficult to plan accordingly for ‘shaky’ numbers, yet adequate data is critical for an informed and responsible planning.

Kenya’s Kibera slum’s population serves as a perfect example. According to the latest census results, Kibera is home to 384,000, a 14 per cent inter-decade decrease from the 1999 census.  

Most of these slum populations share a shrunken patch of land, roofing themselves with corrugated iron sheets loosely pinned on the poorly planned shacks.

Outside their doorsteps are insanitary sewer drainages and impassable roads. “When it comes to slum settlements, governments may find themselves doing a lot of fire fighting if they do not take the warnings that these reports bear.

“There’s need to pay attention to the situations projected and work out solutions while we are ahead,” says Soita Shitanda, Kenya’s Housing minister.