Is Kenya ready to go nuclear?

Twice in less than three months, the government has invited investors interested in setting up nuclear reactors through joint ventures to address the current power shortage.

But experts are questioning the country’s capacity, both technical and financial, to run nuclear energy.

The project’s financing, timing, capacity, security, source and transportation of raw material (uranium), waste disposal and international politics on nuclear business are some the factors that could hinder the country’s foray into nuclear energy.

“If we cannot safeguard our current simple installations from terrorists, how can we protect a nuclear reactor from terrorists who may attack it if not to hurt us, but also to lay their hands on uranium for their own ill intentions?” asked a retired security expert who is consulting for the government.

Yet the government seems determined. First was Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who on a tour of London, called on investors to set up nuclear facilities in Kenya.

His call has been echoed by Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi. Potential investors and experts in nuclear power generation have been invited to the National Energy Conference set for October 7-9 in Nairobi.

“We have invited a South African nuclear expert to advise us on nuclear power generation,” Energy Permanent Secretary Patrick Nyoike said.

The government is planning a small plant to generate about 1,000 megawatts initially, estimated to cost $1 billion (about Sh73 billion), Mr Murungi said.

It is a figure that the government seems to be sure it can raise from private investors willing to fund clean energy under public-private partnerships.

The shift to nuclear energy is understandable given that the country generates 1,100 MW of electricity — including emergency supplies from independent power producers — against a peak time demand of 1,050 MW.

There is great pressure for diversification of the sources from hydro and thermal power generation in the wake of changes in climate and spiralling world oil prices.

The move is central to the government’s ambition of doubling the number of Kenyans accessing electricity by connecting a million new electricity consumers in the next five years as part of the its move toward Vision 2030.

However, the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) has questioned the viability of such a project given the country’s energy demand.

“As it is right now, we cannot afford to go into such a project because it will not be economically viable since a nuclear power unit can only generate 600 megawatts but the country needs at least 1,000 megawatts,” KenGen Managing Director Eddy Njoroge said.

“The cost is just too prohibitive for such a small project.”

This makes a case for two plants. But given the government’s rule that no single installation should supply more than 20 per cent of the national power system’s capacity to avoid total collapse in case of failure, putting up the two plants would force Kenya to export energy.

However, with other investments such as the Sh4 billion in geothermal power generation factored in the current national budget, the two plants may be a big burden to the exchequer.

Coming at a time when the Government is dealing with issues such as the high cost of oil and food, the Sh73 billion needed for a single plant could be too much for the average Kenyan.

But to the proponents, it is a small price Kenyans have to pay for a better tomorrow.

“The initial investment is huge, but nuclear power generation is a viable option that can assure us of a stable, sustainable and clean power supply in the long-term if we want to develop economically,” Dr Gichuru Gatari, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, says.

This is a bold move given that nuclear projects remain controversial in the global geopolitics with the US currently squaring it out with countries such as Iran and North Korea over their nuclear programmes.

“We want to harness nuclear power for civil and peaceful uses which is now universally,” Mr Nyoike said.

Dr Gitari is quick to put in a word of caution: “If what we need is a solution for our immediate power crisis, nuclear power is not an option.”

The country has to cut through a labyrinth of international bureaucracy.

This is because nuclear power is regulated by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Atomic Energy Agency of the UN and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group of countries that supply nuclear material and technology.

In Africa, only South Africa operates a commercial programme while others like Ghana, Egypt and Morocco are said to be operating research projects.

Currently, more than 15 per cent of the world’s electricity comes from nuclear power with countries like France, Germany and Britain being the main players in the industry.

Safe storage and disposal of nuclear waste is a significant challenge to even countries with the most advanced technologies.

“We have very competent people in our security agencies and all we need is to inculcate a culture of ethics in them to effectively protect anything including a nuclear reactor,” Dr Gatari says.

Research and development in the industry has led to innovations that have given rise to fairly safe plants currently in the market compared to their older versions.

But still the threat of accidents such as the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear reactor disaster in the Soviet Union persists and could attract both local and international environmental lobbyists.

Placed in the Kenyan context where both sides agree that the country has a shortage of hands-on-expertise, the accident threat becomes a major issue.

“We could be required to send a few of the nuclear scientists we have trained since most of them may not even have seen a nuclear reactor in their life,” admits Dr Gitari.

It is a prospect that Mr Nyoike feels is not a big deal since it is estimated that it would take between five and seven years before a nuclear power project starts operating.

Human capital may not be a major issue since, following the end of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union, there may be nuclear scientists seeking employment opportunities who can be recruited to boost the local team.