Jubilee, Nasa turn sights to battle for turnout in tight 2017 polls

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chairman Wafula Chebukati meets with Jubilee officials on voter registration recently. FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Provisional figures released by the IEBC showed that a total of 3.7 million new voters had been netted during the just-ended exercise, with Jubilee Party and Nasa strongholds recording strong turnouts.  
  • The figures show that the voters’ roll has expanded to a provisional 19,562,690 voters.
  • The data released by the IEBC has projected a tighter race with Nasa strongholds expected to marshal up to 7.3 million voters compared to Jubilee strongholds with 7.0 million voters.

The Jubilee Party and the National Super Alliance (Nasa) are directing their energies on ensuring that their supporters turn out in large numbers on August 8 after the results of the just ended mass voter registration revealed a neck and neck race for numbers.

Provisional figures released by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) showed that a total of 3.7 million new voters had been netted during the just-ended exercise, with Jubilee Party and Nasa strongholds recording strong turnouts.  

The figures show that the voters’ roll has expanded to a provisional 19,562,690 voters even though the electoral commission will still embark on the arduous task of cleaning the register to weed out dead and under-age voters.

Releasing the results last week, IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati estimated that up to half a million names will be removed from the voters’ roll.

The data released by the IEBC has projected a tighter race than previously anticipated with Nasa strongholds expected to marshal up to 7.3 million voters compared to Jubilee strongholds with 7.0 million voters.

Both sides of the political divide are, however, oozing with confidence even though experts are warning that the 2017 race will be won by the party that manages to ensure a higher turnout than its opponents.

Siaya Senator James Orengo on Saturday warned that the Jubilee Party may be tempted to rig the next election after discovering that data from the just-ended exercise does not favour them.

STATE OF PREPAREDNESS

Last week, Mr Orengo wrote a letter to the IEBC demanding a report on the commission’s state of preparedness ahead of the August 8 General Election.

In his letter, Mr Orengo flagged a number of issues, including the risk of technological crisis as the software licences granted to the IEBC by the manufacturer of the Biometric Voter Registration kits is about to expire.

“We are demanding the disclosure of existing contracts with the original equipment manufacturers to ascertain the status of the servers,” said Mr Orengo in the letter to Mr Chebukati.

In the letter, the Siaya Senator also wants the commission to make disclosures of its connections with external operators.

“Do these include NIS (National Intelligence Service), Jubilee Party, NRB (National Registration Bureau), the immigration department and other parties?”

The Senator also wants the commission to explain if Safran Morpho, the company that supplied the kits, is still playing a role in the election.

The report released by the IEBC early in the week shows that Nairobi, which is considered a battleground county, managed  to register 461,346 followed by Kiambu (225,995), Nakuru (175,756) and Meru (169,803) — all considered Jubilee strongholds.

In Nasa strongholds, Mombasa enrolled 141,686 new voters followed by Kilifi (123,866), Machakos (114,320), Kakamega (114,126), Kisumu (98,857), Homa Bay (90,612), Bungoma (88,441), Kisii (87,892) and Kitui (83,299).

Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo, who is the Minority Leader in the National Assembly, believes Nasa is in a strong position.

“The numbers don’t lie. From what I’m seeing, it is obvious that it is possible to defeat Jubilee and send them home,” Mr Midiwo said.

But Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi claims they are ahead. He argues that the gains made by President Kenyatta in areas previously considered Cord strongholds cannot be underestimated.

“President Kenyatta has grown in Mombasa, we have seen many defections at the Coast and in Kisii. It can only get better,” Mr Linturi said.

ODM Director of Elections Junet Mohammed, who is away in France, argued that both Coast and Kisii regions are under lock and key.

TOUGH BATTLE FOR VOTES

It is projected that there will be a tough battle for votes in Nairobi, Kajiado, Narok, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Samburu, Marsabit, Isiolo and Trans Nzoia.

On Saturday, two university dons offered two clashing opinions on the state of the numbers and whom they favour.

Nairobi University political science lecturer Dr Adams Oloo argues that the numbers, as they stand, tilt in favour of Nasa.

“After 2013, a lot has remained static but it must be understood that each election has its own dynamics,” he argued.

He sees the new political realignments in Kisii and parts of Western as favouring Cord, arguing that Jubilee’s hopes in Nyamira and Kisii are likely to be dashed.

But his United States International University counterpart Prof Macharia Munene believes numbers and systems favour the incumbent and that the Nasa team’s hope of clinching power will remain a pipe dream.

FIGURES SHOW DISPARITY

“Of course the figures, as they are, show there was a disparity in the manner in which people registered. The fallout in various political parties will also have some effect,” he said.

He added: “Uhuru (Kenyatta) has an upper hand. His ability to penetrate communities will come in handy. Actually he is likeable; many people will vote for him.”

His views are shared by Starehe MP who claimed Nairobi is now a Jubilee zone, adding that many voters who previously voted in counties neighbouring the city have returned.

“I think we will hit Nasa by over 1 million votes. The biggest tragedy for them is that they will also lose Nairobi governorship. We have asked more than 500,000 people who previously voted in the rural neighbours to stay in the city,” Mr Maina Kamanda said.

He said all is being done to ensure the city is delivered to Jubilee and that the voter migration was part of the game.