High unemployment rate could evolve into revolution, experts warn

The number of unemployed youth in Kenya could rise to 14 million over the next seven years, a Kenyan expert has warned.

In an interview with the Saturday Nation this week, the Institute of Policy Analysis and Research chief executive officer, Prof Inonda Mwanje, said this high number of jobless youths could spark off a peoples’ revolution if it is not tamed.

Statistics indicate that over two million youths in the country are out of work. Another 750,000 join this lot every year from educational institutions. “If youth unemployment is not addressed now, we are creating a class problem,” said Prof Mwanje.

As a matter of urgency, he said, Parliament should dedicate a day to discuss this problem with the aim of seeking long term solutions.

Labour minister John Munyes puts the figure of unemployed youth at 1.9 million, majority of them aged between 15 and 24.

Formal employment

However, the chief economist at the Ministry of Youth and Sports, Mr Isaac Kamande, says there are nearly 2.5 million unemployed youth in the country.

“Barely 125,000 are annually absorbed into formal employment, which today has nearly 1.8 million employees. The informal sector, which has about eight million workers, absorbs the most,” says Mr Kamande.

Mr Odeny Odhiambo, the chairman of the Kenya Youth Foundation, says the specific data of youth unemployment might not be available.

“But it is true that nearly 50 per cent of Kenyans are living below the poverty line, and 60 per cent of them are persons below 18 years,” says Mr Odhiambo.

But Kenya is not alone. Of the six billion people in the world, nearly one billion comprises the youth, and over 850 million of these live in developing countries. There are calls for the Kenya Government to map its human resource because this will enable it tell which skill is found where, and direct special programmes to that area.

To engage the youth, the Government could also establish a national reforestation programme, starting with the Mau, with an aim of recapturing the globally recommended 10 per cent forest cover across the country.

“We will have restored our rivers and saved this country from the negative effects of global warming,” argues Prof Mwanje.

Capital Youth Caucus Association national chairman, Jared Akama, says there is a need to identify resources in different parts of the country and establish relevant industries so that area youths could be employed there.

Mr Akama, whose 48,000 member organisation crusades for, among other issues, youth employment, expresses concern that most projects by the Government are introduced without consulting the youth or sensitising them about the projects.

It has been argued that the Government’s action to tame the unemployment monster has been slow, but noticeable. The creation of the Ministry of Youth Affairs in 2005 is an indication that it appreciates the problem.

The Youth Enterprise Fund, the revolving loan facility whose budgetary allocation has been increased from an initial Sh1 billion to Sh1.75 billion, is one of the ways the State hopes to fight joblessness. Already, some Sh1.6 billion has been disbursed to over 55,000 youth enterprises across the country.

Central Organisation of Trade Union secretary-general Francis Atwoli, however, faults this scheme. He terms the Government’s move narrowly focused on entrepreneurship without regard to the fact that not all youths are well organised to access the funds.

The Federation of Kenya Employers Chairman Patrick Obath terms the programmes a stop-gap measure which cannot be sustained. “We will only be postponing the problem,” said Mr Obath.

Vijana Kwa Kazi, another youth employment scheme, sources its funding from the existing budgets for eight ministries (Sh10 billion) and the budget contained in their supplementary estimates.

But Mr Atwoli told the Saturday Nation that the issue of youth unemployment should be given a three-pronged approach; focused education, proper economic management and political stability. “We need to give the young people relevant professions. The education we provide to them must reflect employment opportunities,” Mr Atwoli said.

He said if economic development is enhanced and corruption reduced, Kenya will attract foreign investment, which will create jobs. Political stability also encourages investments which in turn creates employment opportunities, he added.