Close EU election could force Cameron to defer Kenya visit

IN LONDON

With the EU referendum poll in the UK on a knife edge, the proposed visit of the UK Prime Minister David Cameron to Kenya in early June could be in doubt.

The “in-out” poll on whether or not Britain should stay as a member of the European Union is at present deadlocked with the latest poll showing 49 per cent against and 49 per cent for “Brexit”, the term being used for campaigners wanting the UK to quit the EU.

Prime Minister Cameron has staked his reputation and the future of his premiership on winning a yes vote — for staying in — in the campaign and it seems increasingly unlikely that if the polls stay as close as they are over the next few weeks, that he will be able to justify visiting Kenya in early June, just days before the June 23 poll.

While improving relations between Kenya and the UK is undoubtedly a foreign policy goal of the Cameron government, the fact is that it is a lesser priority than winning the EU referendum, which could determine the fate of the rest of his premiership.

The UK premier’s visit to Kenya was arranged in a meeting between the two heads of state on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York last September.

At the time the UK Prime Minister had already promised an EU referendum to the British people, the most likely date of which was expected to be the summer of this year or 2017.

But with Mr Cameron succeeding in his effort to re-negotiate key aspects of British membership of the EU with his European colleagues, a decision was made to go for June with early polls indicating a likely victory for the “stay in the EU” camp.

But since then political momentum for staying in seems to have been lost with recent polls indicating an extremely close vote.

If Prime Minister Cameron were to lose the vote in June, it is likely that he would either immediately resign or be forced to do so by his ruling Conservative party.

The importance of the EU vote is likely to have been considered by diplomats working behind the scenes to arrange a meeting between President Kenyatta and Mr Cameron, and they may still consider there is sufficient time between the visit to Nairobi and the June 23 poll.

The last time the two leaders met was in London in 2013 during a conference on the Somalia conflict.

At the time, President Kenyatta was still facing trial at the International Criminal Court, making conversations between the two leaders difficult, but the case has since collapsed.

The Kenya government had hoped the June visit would lead to a resetting of relations with the UK, which have been problematic since the election of President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.

Issues of corruption, press freedom, democracy and human rights have all cast a shadow over UK Kenyan relations in recent years but increasing UK tourist numbers to Kenya, improved security and a growing desire by London to challenge China’s aggressive economic expansion into sub-Saharan Africa have all played a role in the desire to improve relations in the future.

For these reasons, a visit is still likely to take place some time in the near future. But whether it takes place in June remains in doubt.