Fertility rate to drop by half in five years

Experts are projecting that Kenya’s fertility rate will drop by half by 2020 as the country enters a new phase in demographic transition.

According to the latest Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS), the total fertility rate is 3.9 births per woman, meaning a Kenyan woman at the beginning of childbearing age will give birth to about four children — an aggregate of 1.2 million new births annually — down from five children per woman in 2008/9.

But according to projections, the fertility rate is likely to drop to 2.3 children per woman in 2020, according to Prof Agwanda Otieno, a population expert.

Prof Otieno told Sunday Nation that the country has already attained the second and third stages of the demographic transition.

This means that over the past 37 years, the country’s birth and death rates have dropped significantly, making the fertility rate decrease from the initial eight children per woman to four children per woman, according to the latest demographic and health survey released this week.

“We are signatory to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action in which the country agreed on the number of children per household and their spacing,” Prof Otieno said, explaining why the country’s total fertility rate has lowered.

The ICPD 20-year (1994-2014) programme of action states that countries that have not completed their demographic transition should take effective steps to do so, in the context of their social and economic development and with respect to human rights.

This, the population expert said, is one of the guiding principles in lowering the fertility rate.

Prof Otieno added that the drop in fertility rate complies with the demographic transition which has seen Kenya attain both the second and third stages of the transition.

For a country to attain these stages, its death rates must drop due to improvements in food supply and sanitation. Also, its birth rates must fall due to access to contraception and increase in status and education of women.

Most developed countries are in stages three or four, while the majority of developing countries are in stages two or three.

However, while some counties in Kenya — as indicated in the KDHS report — depicted a significant drop, others lagged behind. Counties like Kirinyaga (2.3), Nyeri (2.7), Kiambu (2.7) and Nairobi (2.7) had the lowest fertility rates nationally, while Wajir (7.8), West Pokot (7.2) and Garissa (6.1) counties had the highest fertility rates.

The high numbers in some counties have been attributed to lower levels of education, wealth and areas of residence.

The survey says women with little or no education will have up to six children each by the end of their reproductive periods if fertility levels remain constant.

“Fertility is an individual’s decision. Some communities still believe that having more children is a sort of old-age security plan, since the children will take care of them. This is why there is still high prevalence of child labour,” said Prof Otieno.

While attributing the decline in fertility rates to considerable use of family planning, Dr Nicholas Muraguri, director for Medical Services, advised: “The smaller the family size, the better chances of survival and prosperity of the family.”