Hard choices for Uhuru, Ruto and Raila over ICC

President Uhuru Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto and Cord leader Raila Odinga are entering a make-or-break period with a number of challenges threatening to choke their political careers.

The three are easily the most high-profile politicians in the country today and were all involved in a bitter political contest in the last General Election.

The President, who is set to be the only Head of State in the world to be tried for crimes against humanity charges while in office, is facing a crisis of confidence at home with a tax regime his government introduced in June and which took effect this week resulting in an unprecedented increase in the prices of basic commodities.

New development

Barring any new development, President Kenyatta will be out of the country on November 12 and 13 for the opening of his trial in the International Criminal Court at The Hague, together with his deputy who at that time will have already been two months into his own trial.

The absence of the two leaders in the country at the same time could occasion a paralysis in government, experts have warned, saying the Speaker of the National Assembly and the National Assembly Majority Leader who are number three and number four in the political pecking order might lack the requisite clout to adequately step into the President’s and Deputy President’s shoes.

With their attention diverted to what could be termed as a fight for their lives at the Netherlands-based court, the challenge on the domestic front would include the fear that gravitas could inevitably be taken off the revival of the economy and honouring of campaign pledges, a situation which the duo’s rivals could exploit for political mileage.

Focal point

Mr Ruto’s absence could also remove the sail off the Jubilee ship  as his position and charisma makes him the focal point of the Jubilee brigade.

As a man who is a breath away from the presidency, Mr Ruto’s long absence from the political scene and the outcome of the case could determine whether he clinches the ultimate prize.

He leaves behind an emboldened Bomet governor Isaac Rutto whom, Jubilee supporters believe, is keen on creating another centre of power in Rift Valley, allegations which the governor has denied.

The situation will however not be any better for Mr Odinga, who is battling to keep a fractious coalition he crafted a few weeks to his third stab at the presidency, intact.

Already, a number of Cord MPs and senators have distanced themselves from the referendum call, saying there was no consultation and Young Turks are digging in, calling for a generational change in ODM.

“A section of politicians within the Cord coalition are making erratic pronouncements and some of us are saying we were not consulted on, especially the bit about changing the manner of electing the president,” Mombasa senator Omar Hassan told Saturday Nation Thursday.  

Mr Odinga is also alive to the fact that, being outside government, he has no carrot to dangle to keep political support.

Highly publicised campaign

This is the advantage his rivals have been exploiting to the full, the latest being the issuing of title deeds in a highly publicised campaign which saw leaders from Coast - one of Cord’s strongest bases - warming up to the government.

The ICC also, far from giving him an advantage, could prove costly as his rivals will have an emotive issue to rally their supporters behind as they did in the last election.
“Mr Odinga is damned if he moves and damned if he does not. The dilemma for him is that if he takes advantage of the duo’s absence to campaign, he will get the flak for appearing to celebrate his brothers’ adversity.”

“If he takes a low profile during the period he risks fading into oblivion,” said Ol-Jororok MP Kamotho Waiganjo.

Distance himself

Deputy President William Ruto has distanced himself from Thursday’s motion by MPs to withdraw Kenya from the Rome Statute.

Reacting to the motion moved by his key ally, Leader of Majority in Parliament Adan Duale, Mr Ruto said he respected the doctrine of separation of powers and had no control over decisions taken by Parliament.

“What happens in Parliament is not under my jurisdiction,” Mr Ruto said through an aide.

On the impact of the motion to his trial which begins at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague on Tuesday, the Deputy President maintained that he has competent lawyers.

President Kenyatta, who also faces charges relating to the post-election violence was not available for comment on the motion as several calls to his office went unanswered.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, however, condemned the move by the MPs, saying it would not end the trials facing Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and former radio presenter Joshua arap Sang.

“The position remains the same. Pulling out of the Rome Statute is an exercise in futility and does not bring any honour to the nation or its leaders,” said Mr Odinga through his communication secretary Dennis Onyango.

MPs allied to Mr Odinga’s Cord Alliance staged a walkout from Parliament midway through the motion, saying they could not be party to the withdrawal from the Rome Statute.

The move was, however, welcomed by the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims (Supkem) which, through its secretary general Adan Wachu, said the cases facing the three Kenyans should be handled through local mechanism.

“We commend and approve the move by MPs to pull Kenya out of ICC because we are a sovereign State. There was no hue and cry when the US joined and moved out of the ICC. There was no hue and cry when Kenya joined the ICC and we don’t know why it should be there when we pull out,” said Mr Wachu.

“As Supkem, we advocate for local trials because Kenya has a functioning government and is not a banana republic. We call upon all Kenyans to support the MPs,” he added.

The move was, however, condemned by advocacy groups and law scholars.

Parliament’s action also sparked fear that it could trigger a domino effect, with other African states following Kenya’s lead.

“Parliament is sending a signal to victims of mass crimes in Kenya that their government is more concerned with sanctioning impunity than providing them with justice or strengthening the rule of law,” Sunil Pal, an official with the Coalition for the International Criminal Court, said on Friday.

A similar response came from Ms Elizabeth Evanson of Human Rights Watch.

“The withdrawal would send a message to Kenyans that their government was not interested in protecting their future rights to justice, affording access to the ICC as a court of last resort when justice is not possible nationally,” Ms Evanson wrote.

Netsanet Belay, Africa director at Amnesty International, warned that the action set a dangerous precedent for the future of justice in Africa.

Concern was also expressed by Paola Gaeta, director of the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights.

Additional reporting by KEVIN J KELLEY and PETER LEFTIE