Most governors are likely to retain seats, opinion polls show

An Infotrak opinion poll shows governors (from left) Josphat Nanok, Martin Wambora and Ken Lusaka are more popular than their rivals. PHOTOS | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Incumbents have the capacity to employ public resources for their re-election campaigns.
  • In Uasin Gishu, Governor Jackson Mandago could be pipped by newcomer Zedekiah Buzeki.

The majority of governors are likely to retain their seats if trends seen in a series of recent opinion polls hold.

Just 10 days to the elections, the seat of county governor remains the most-fiercely contested outside the presidency, easily overshadowing National Assembly and Senate races.

POPULARITY
Opinion polls over the past few weeks indicate that the majority of sitting governors may take advantage of incumbency and easily retain their seats.

An opinion poll released Thursday by research firm Infotrak indicates that Josphat Nanok of Turkana — the Council of Governors chairman, and Okoth Obado of Migori are poised to retain their seats with support of more than 70 per cent of voter support each.

However, Nyandarua Governor Daniel Waithaka will lose to former Head of Civil Service Francis Kimemia, recording support of just 9.3 per cent of the votes.

POWER
Other incumbent governors enjoying wide support according to other recent polls include Wycliffe Oparanya of Kakamega with 68.3 per cent support, Hassan Joho of Mombasa at 63.2 per cent and James Ongwae of Kisii at 60.1 per cent.

RESOURCES

The majority of governors being returned would be contrary to the established trend for National Assembly elections, where typically about 60 per cent of MPs lose their seats.

Like in the race for president, incumbency seems to offer distinct advantage to candidates, probably because of the resources they control.

Incumbents have the capacity to employ public resources for their re-election campaigns, often using government staff and vehicles; and even paying for campaign billboards, banners and advertising using public funds under the guise of publicising achievements of county governments.

COUNTY FUNDS
County bosses exuding confidence in their re-election prospects are citing positive transformation of their counties.

The latest report by the Controller of Budget supports this, stating that counties have recorded a 13.1 per cent increase in the uptake of funds in the first nine months of the 2016/17 financial year compared to a similar period in the previous fiscal year.

However, a large number of governors have been accused of corruption, mismanagement and misuse of funds, which apparently is not harming their prospects.

WIN
The governor race in Turkana has Mr Nanok (ODM) enjoying 77.7 per cent popularity against Senator John Munyes of Jubilee’s at 14.3 per cent.

Migori Governor Okoth Obado (ODM) would also retain his seat with 71.9 per cent support against his main opponent Ochilo Ayacko’s (Independent) 20.7 per cent.

In Kakamega County, Mr Wycliffe Oparanya leads with 68.3 per cent, with his main challenger, Senator Boni Khalwale coming second with only 13 per cent.

LOSS
Mr Joho of ODM will get 63.2 per cent of the votes, followed by Jubilee candidate Suleiman Shahbal, whom the poll projects to secure 15.3 per cent.

The list is not exhaustive because not all counties have been surveyed and only polls done over the past two weeks have been considered for this report, which looks at surveys by Infotrak and Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa).

The governors who look most unlikely to retain their seats include Mr Waithaka of Nyandarua at just 9.3 per cent, and Joseph Ndathi of Kirinyaga at just three per cent support.

DEFECTION
Most races for governor are however neck-and-neck and could go either way.

An interesting finding in the Infotrak poll is that Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, running on the Jubilee Party ticket after his defection, could retain his seat in an otherwise fiercely pro-opposition zone.

The poll gives Mr Lusaka 52.2 per cent popularity rating ahead of Ford-Kenya’s Wycliffe Wangamati (31.9 per cent), ODM’s Alfred Khangati (5.2 per cent) and Amani National Congress’s Stephen Mutoro (0.1 per cent).

KIDERO/SONKO
The National Super Alliance (Nasa) sibling rivalry divides the opposition vote somewhat, but the numbers show that Mr Lusaka would still enjoy a cushion even if the Ford-Kenya, ODM and ANC votes were consolidated.

The races that are too close to call include Nairobi, where Governor Evans Kidero is in a dead-heat with challenger Senator Mike Sonko.

Infotrak showed incumbent Governor Peter Munya would win Meru with 42 per cent against Senator Kiraitu Murungi’s 40.7 per cent.

WAMBORA
In Uasin Gishu, Governor Jackson Mandago could be pipped by newcomer Zedekiah Buzeki, while David Nkedianye of Kajiado might just hold off fierce challenges.

A Tifa poll last week showed that Mr Amason Kingi of Kilifi would retain his seat at 51 per cent support.

In Embu, Mr Wambora (Jubilee), who twice survived impeachment, is comfortably ahead with 48.4 per cent against Senator Lenny Kivuti (Maendeleo Chap Chap) at 26.2 per cent.

CREDIBILITY
In Kajiado, Governor Nkedianye of ODM leads with 52.7 per cent against Jubilee’s Joseph ole Lenku at 41.0 per cent.

“We have done our groundwork and are assured of victory,” Mr Lenku said, dismissing the poll.

A sample of 1,000 respondents were interviewed with a margin of error of -/+ 3.1 per cent.

However, questions have been raised about the credibility of county polls following unverified reports that some of them are financed by sitting governors.

PRIMARIES
Their accuracy was also questioned after some predictions at the party primaries in April turned out way off the mark.

For instance in Kiambu, Infotrak had predicted Governor William Kabogo would handily beat challenger Ferdinand Waititu for the Jubilee ticket, but he was trounced.