Nasa out to correct 2013 'big' mistake

The National Super Alliance (Nasa) seems to have learnt a thing or two about the 2013 elections when low voter turnout partly cost its predecessor, the Coalition for Reform and Democracy, victory.

As they embarked on rigorous campaigns on Sunday, the Alliance’s new lieutenants seemed to have known that voter turnout more than crowds at your rallies move results.

BLOCS

“We love crowds of people but victory for Nasa will depend on whether you vote,” said NASA’s campaign team leader Musalia Mudavadi who is also a co-Principal in the Alliance.

“Victory is determined by number of those who actually vote,” he told a gathering at a rally at the Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi.

In 2013, Mr Mudavadi contested on the Amani Coalition, coming a distance third in a race fought fiercely between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta.

Now things have changed, Mr Odinga, Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper, Moses Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya and Isaac Ruto of Chama Cha Mashinani have come together to form the National Super Alliance.

But this grouping, same as President Kenyatta’s revamped Jubilee Party, will rely on the same voting blocs as in 2013.

TYRANNY

Here, Nasa leaders made a public declaration "to wake up early on August 8, 2017 to vote to ensure Raila Amolo Odinga becomes the next President of Kenya.”

But voting and numbers were on their minds.

Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto was exuding confidence, telling a crowd that Jubilee’s mantra of “tyranny of numbers” has been dissolved.

“For four years, they claimed they had tyranny of numbers. Now wait and see how Kenyans will teach them what tyranny of numbers is,” said the Governor who was elected on a URP ticket, a part of the Jubilee Alliance, in 2013 but has since fell out with the ruling coalition.

So how important is voter turn-out? Official figures from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission will not be out until verification of the voters’ register is complete.

But the Nasa has claimed its support base is worth 10 million voters this time.

50.07PC

In 2013, Mr Odinga’s loss was blamed partly on his strongholds not turning out to back his candidacy.

In Coast region, which was his stronghold, there was the least turnout from his support bases with only 7 in every ten voters of the then 1,171,240 registered voters.

The rest of the regions registered more than 80 per cent turnout, according to an official tally later published by the IEBC in 2014.

Mr Odinga won 612,057 votes beating President Uhuru Kenyatta at 158,083 votes.

Eventually, Kenyatta managed 50.07 per cent of the total votes cast against Mr Odinga’s 43.7 per cent.

He clinched the presidency by a razor-sharp margin of 8,419 votes that helped him tip over and satisfy the constitutional requirement of 50 plus one votes to avoid a runoff.

Cord challenged this result in court, citing various irregularities and arguing the vote had been rigged against them. They failed to prove this before the Supreme Court Judges and the Court threw out their petition on a technicality.

TURNOUT

IEBC’s data though showed that all strongholds of Mr Kenyatta recorded a high voter turnout.

Central had the highest at 92 per cent earning him 1,895,075.

Mr Odinga had 84,010.

On the other hand, Mr Odinga’s Nyanza stronghold recorded the second highest turnout at 89 per cent.

The former PM garnered 1,508,776 votes against the 181,961 that Mr Kenyatta got.

Rift Valley, another stronghold of Mr Kenyatta, which recorded a turnout of 88 per cent, and it seemed to cancel out any victories Raila had scored in Nyanza because the President managed 2,188,422 votes against Mr Odinga’s 707,541.

So, apart from the actual registered numbers, it appears votes may be a new battle front in the campaigns that began on Sunday.