Sacking poll officials unlikely to cure institutional failures

Opposition politicians and supporters head to the streets for the third round of weekly protests — which culminate in violent clashes between police and protesters — to force out the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

Cord appears to be stepping up its demands. It no longer wants just the removal of the commissioners but a review of the entire body of electoral law, though it is not clear which specific sections of the law it deems faulty.

It also rejected as a “ploy” and time-buying gimmick, an offer of talks by Deputy President William Ruto, with Senators James Orengo and Johnson Muthama asking for “structured dialogue”, (what does this mean?) and then only after the whole gamut of commissioners have been sacked.

Mr Muthama has promised the mother of all demonstrations on Monday in which Kanu is expected to take part.

Jubilee, for its part, is reported to have shelved an earlier plan to call rival demonstrations.

But a top-level meeting chaired by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto was reported to have resolved that Jubilee would stick it out and not concede to an ad hoc sacking of IEBC commissioners or a meeting between Mr Kenyatta and Cord.

Jubilee and Cord have reportedly dug in for a long, disruptive season of street protests.

The protests are lawful, but Kenya’s cycle of electoral instability is deeply damaging to the economy.

RETHINKING OUR ACTIONS

Big Kenyan companies, especially Kenya Airways and the tourism industry, looking to recover after the damage wrought by Al-Shabaab and travel advisories, are bracing for possible losses as tourists flee and companies withhold investment, fearing another cycle of election-related violence.

And the circumstances are ripe for election chaos. The Monday demonstrations are against IEBC, which means that the opposition will not accept the results of an election conducted by the commission, whether free and fair or not, unless of course it wins.

In any case, a dispute is a likely outcome of the 2017 presidential election.

Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for resolving election disputes in Kenya that both opposition and government would accept.

The opposition has said it has no respect for the Supreme Court, which it believes favours the ruling coalition.

Five factors need to be taken into account in the resolution of this damaging conflict.

First, both the government and the opposition must realise that they have a duty to ensure the safety of the public, political stability of the nation and the over-riding need to repair the national brand.

This might be more important than the individual rights of politicians to seek — or keep — political power.

NOTHING NEW

Secondly, ordinary Kenyans need to step back and ask themselves, what is at stake for the country in the competition between Jubilee and opposition for power?

For the political elite and their circle of ethnic supporters, a lot. State largesse, access to public sector jobs and deals are some of the benefits of power.

For the wider Kenyan public, not much. The Kenyan political sector is one of the most under-developed.

Compared to information technology, banking or any other endeavour, Kenyan politics has not innovated new ways to organise the State in order to achieve efficiency, equity, stability and development.

The ideas encoded in the new constitution are from the 1990s and before.

Qualitatively, the difference between Cord and Jubilee is perhaps just a matter of branding and the credentials of some of the individuals.

The key personalities in both have been in politics more than 20 years and have been together in more than one party and together served more than one government.

Neither Jubilee nor Cord is a radical departure from the normal personality-centred, corruption-fuelled Kenyan politics.

Thirdly, though it can wield street power, if it wishes to reform the electoral process for the benefit of the future — rather than just the next election — Cord must make a better case for the reform of IEBC.

It is not enough to sack examination officials every time a candidate fails an exam, you have to demonstrate the unfairness and explain how the exam protects against such an unfairness in the future.

WHAT TO DO

The sacking of individuals does not cure institutional failures, as we have seen before. What specifically is wrong with IEBC? A place to begin is to examine the process of appointment of senior staff and the qualifications required of them.

And if changes to the process of appointment are to be made, how will that change be effected?

The process currently in law is elaborate and long, which could take months. The other route, through Parliament, might be convenient, but will not guarantee durable and appropriate solutions.

Equally, politicians have tried to cure the problems at IEBC by seeking to have influence within the commission as opposed to ensuring no party has such influence.

In the end, we hire commissions that do not have the authority to enforce electoral law and to ensure candidates and parties accept defeat.

A solution to the electoral mess cannot come from politicians alone. They must arise from the entire society.

Fourth and related to the foregoing, it is anomalous that the Kenyan electoral process is not expected to produce defeat; That is why candidates defect when they lose at the nominations.

This comes from a tendency and propensity to rig elections at every level. Credible and honest elections are not just fair, but they are a means to cure the diseased polity.

Finally, Jubilee needs to reflect on the role of government in resolving disputes and ensuring political peace.

A reasonable, inclusive, accommodating and open approach is what democracy is all about.