Who among Cord has best chance against UhuRuto?

A committee picked by Cord to come up with a formula to select its presidential candidate is analysing the strengths and weaknesses of the three principals before recommending who stands the best chance of beating Jubilee in next year’s presidential election.

Senators James Orengo (Siaya, ODM), Johnson Muthama (Machakos, Wiper) and MP Eseli Simiyu (Tongaren, Ford Kenya) have embarked on elaborate consultations and analysis on identifying the best candidate.

The issue has in recent weeks threatened to tear apart the opposition coalition. Mr Raila Odinga (ODM), Mr Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Mr Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and their supporters have each separately indicated they are the right man for the job.

Unlike Jubilee, which has agreed on Mr Uhuru Kenyatta for President with Mr Ruto as his running mate, Cord must contend with a punishing process — a delicate balancing act that has the potential to implode. The idea is to reach a consensus on the candidate and avoid going through a vote.

A source in the committee, who spoke in confidence due to the sensitivity of the matter, told the Sunday Nation that the three, supported by a technical team, have intensified a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis of the principals in recent weeks.

“It should be known that our role is largely advisory. Equally, we will be getting advice from a team of independent experts on how to handle the issue of the presidential candidate. The final decision, however, lies with the three principals,” the source said.

Age could be one of the considerations. At 58 years, Mr Wetang’ula brings the age advantage to the table. This could come in handy to deflate Jubilee’s narrative of youthful leadership used against Mr Odinga in the 2013 elections.

But equally, age could also be the Achille’s heel for Weta – as Mr Wetang’ula is sometimes referred to – since he could be asked to shelve his ambition for his older and arguably more experienced counterparts with an understanding that he will be supported in future.

At 71 years, some have suggested the next elections could be Mr Odinga’s last realistic chance at the presidency, while Mr Musyoka, 63, is also no spring chicken but age still gives him enough headroom. 

CONTROLS SMALL FRACTION

But there is a widely-held view in ODM – most recently voiced by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, who is also the party’s deputy leader – that Mr Wetang’ula controls only a small fraction of the Western vote beyond his native Bungoma County with the Orange party dominating the other areas.

But even then, his critics say, Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka of Jubilee affiliated New Ford Kenya and a county assembly leaning towards the ruling coalition make the Senator’s backyard a veritable political battleground rather than a shoo-in for Cord.

By launching his presidential bid in Kakamega last month, Mr Wetang’ula appeared to have been attempting to stamp his authority as the regional kingpin, perhaps with an eye on the coalition negotiation table that values leaders who carry with them voting blocs.

The event was, however, marred by violence and sparked a war of words between Ford Kenya and ODM. Ford Kenya has also intensified the narrative that it is the natural home for all Luhya politicians to enhance the elusive unity.

Mr Odinga is largely seen as having the Nyanza vote under lock and key but, based on his performance in the last election, he can also claim strong support in Coast, Western and Nairobi regions. On his part, Mr Musyoka proved in 2007 and 2013 that he can deliver the Ukambani vote.  

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, an ally of Mr Wetang’ula, told the Sunday Nation that the only way to tap the six million “unbanked” Luhya votes is to make the Ford Kenya leader the presidential candidate.

“Weta is the dark horse in Cord. He will be able to bring on board all those who have been asking what is there for them,” says Dr Khalwale, who has indicated his intention to be Kakamega governor on a Ford Kenya ticket.

In his overall assessment about the other co-principals, he adds: “Kalonzo comes from what I would call a small tribe, which is a huge advantage. Giving him the ticket would be a great opportunity to ask all the other communities who have never imagined one of their own in State House to support his bid. Mr Odinga is obviously now the front-runner, that is an issue we can also use to our advantage in the coalition.”

Questions have also been raised on whether Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetang’ula can marshal the war chest needed to mount a presidential campaign.

Mr Odinga is known to have a vast international network that his supporters say he has used in the past to raise campaign funds.

ENJOYS CONNECTIONS

While Mr Musyoka also enjoys connections beyond Kenyan borders, given his stint as the country’s Foreign Affairs minister, his fundraising abilities have not been put to the test. 

Dr Khalwale advises the committee to forget about a pact that created Cord ahead of the 2013 polls and devise a new mechanism of arriving at the candidate.

“Emotions aside, the current hype in Cord cannot be contained by naming one of the principals as the first among equals but by giving a clear formula of arriving at the candidate. That way, the followers will be cushioned from the rigours of the process and handle its aftermath,” he says.

The resurfacing of the debate on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that supposedly stated Mr Odinga would be president for five years and hand over to Mr Musyoka has also been a source of tension. Mr Odinga has said the MoU is not valid since he lost the vote while some of Mr Musyoka’s allies want the deal fulfilled no matter the circumstances.

To guard against fallout from the nomination, Cord is looking at the prospects of having an expanded leadership structure that could bring back a powerful position below the Deputy President, with some suggesting a prime minister just like in the Grand Coalition government formed in 2008.

The thinking, according to Cord insiders, is to ensure that each of the three politicians, and by extension their voting blocs, end up with a “substantive seat”.

A number of politicians from Ukambani including Machakos Town MP Victor Munyaka (Chama Cha Uzalendo), Mwingi Central MP Joe Mutambu (Wiper) and Mbooni MP Kisoi Munyao have insisted that Ukambani voters will not support Cord if Mr Musyoka is not the presidential candidate. Some of the Cord critics from the region have, however, been working closely with Jubilee and were behind a recent delegation that met President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House. Mr Musyoka has declared he will not work with Jubilee.

Then there is the perception that Mr Odinga is such a polarising figure that people in some regions, particularly Central Kenya, suffer from “Railaphobia” – a deep-rooted fear of the Cord leader – and will go out of their way to vote against him.

WIDELY ACCEPTABLE CANDIDATE

Those who support this argument consider Mr Musyoka a more widely acceptable candidate who, with a “Kalonzo Tosha” endorsement from Mr Odinga, could lead Cord to victory. Wiper secretary-general and Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar says his party leader is a safe bet, who stands a good chance to beat Mr Kenyatta.

It is a trodden path for Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka who, in the run-up to the 2007 elections, went separate ways after failing to agree on who would be the ODM-Kenya candidate against President Mwai Kibaki.

Mr Musyoka eventually stood as the ODM-K presidential candidate while Mr Odinga sought a new home in ODM. 

Even though Mr Odinga had Mr Musyoka as his running mate in 2013, the shadow of the bitter Orange split in 2007 still lingers. But the coalition has held on relatively well after losing the presidential ballot.

ODM secretary-general Ababu Namwamba holds that Mr Odinga is tried, tested and proven. He says the former premier represents what Cord stands for.
That Mr Odinga has a unique mobilisation ability is a fact his opponents in Jubilee and competitors in Cord admit. This could explain why his co-principals value his endorsement.

But one major criticism against the scion of the country’s first vice-president Jaramogi Oginga is his inability to keep political allies. Maseno University political science lecturer Tom Mboya says Mr Odinga should learn to bend over backwards to accommodate his partners. 

“No doubt the politics of the country revolves around him. His ability is unparalleled. He, however, needs to drop the tag, mostly reinforced after all the Pentagon members left him, that he does not treat his partners right,” Mr Mboya says.

Pentagon was the top decision-making organ of ODM ahead of the 2007 elections. It included Mr Ruto, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, Mr Joe Nyaga, Mr Najib Balala and later Mrs Charity Ngilu. They all went their separate ways. 

Mr Mboya says the perception that Mr Musyoka is a fence sitter, ready to hop to the side most convenient for his political needs, may be his undoing.

“He brings the numbers in Cord but perhaps he must work on the notion that he is always on the edge,” he says.

ODM director of elections Junet Mohamed says the trio has demonstrable ability to lead the country as “each one of them brings a wealth of experience”.