Harare in limbo as ‘Goblin’ exits stage for ‘Croc’

This file photo taken on April 7, 2016 shows Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe attending a meeting with the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association in Harare. Mr Mugabe has been removed as president of Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party and replaced by his former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa on November 19, 2017. AFP PHOTO | JEKESAI NJIKIZANA

What you need to know:

  • Zanu-PF kicked out President Mugabe and gave him until noon Monday to resign.
  • War veterans’ leader Christopher Mutsvangwa said Mr Mugabe was running out of time to negotiate his departure.
  • The fact that he no longer leads his party means the end is certain for his 37-year reign.

CAPE TOWN

Which is better: the Crocodile or the Goblin? Or is one just as bad as the other?

These are among the questions Zimbabweans are asking after the military took over this economically and politically troubled southern African country.

The “Crocodile” is Emmerson Mnangagwa, long-time associate of President Robert Mugabe.

He is inextricably linked with the notoriously inept, corrupt and violent rule of Zanu-PF since independence. His nickname in Zimbabwe is sometimes used as a sign of respect but more often a reference to the dangers he embodies.

The “Goblin” is the president, a new nickname derived from the recent prosecution of a young American woman for her social media comment about Mugabe.

On Sunday, Zanu-PF kicked out President Mugabe and gave him until noon today to resign as the country’s president or face impeachment.

EXPELLED

Party spokesman Simon Khaya Moyo said the Zanu-PF Central Committee resolved that “Grace is on the list of people to be expelled from the party”.

Mr Obert Mpofu, the official chairing the gathering, said the party had come together “with a heavy heart” and hailed the beginning of a new era, “not only for our party but for our nation Zimbabwe”.

He said Mr Mugabe had contributed to “many memorable achievements”, but that “Grace and close associates have taken advantage of his frail condition to loot”.

Before the meeting, war veterans’ leader Christopher Mutsvangwa said Mr Mugabe was running out of time to negotiate his departure.

“He’s trying to bargain for a dignified exit,” he said, following up with a threat to call for mass protests if Mr Mugabe refused to go.

Though Mr Mugabe technically remains president, the fact that he no longer leads his party means the end is certain for his 37-year reign.

Ahead of his meeting with generals to discuss his exit, Mr Mugabe was “wailing profusely” saying he wished he could speak to his first wife, Sally, and son Michael Nhamodzenyika who died in 1966 at the age of three, an aide said.

SALLY

“He is spending most of his time looking at an old photo of Sally,” the aide said. Sally died of kidney failure in 1992.

“He has been staging a hunger strike over his house arrest and is refusing to take a bath or speak.”

Will a Mnangagwa presidency, with Zanu-PF still in control of all organs of the state, be any better?

There is relief — especially among Zimbabweans who have fled the ravages of their homeland for the relative safety of South Africa — that Mugabe is about to become an ex-president.

It may be argued that it was Grace Mugabe, along with her “Generation 40” (G40) supporters, who triggered the bloodless coup.

There has been a purge, mainly of former fighters against white minority rule, which culminated in Mnangagwa’s dismissal in early November.

Because of his liberation struggle credentials and close personal ties to Mugabe, Mnangagwa was widely expected to be the next president once Mugabe retired or was rendered ineffective by age or disease.

RIVAL

As such, he was Mrs Mugabe’s arch rival for the presidency.

With both Mugabes now out of the picture, the focus falls on Mnangagwa, whose reputation for ruthlessness does not bode well for a future Zimbabwe as being freer, fairer and politically tolerant.

Mnangagwa played a key role in keeping Mugabe in power.

Among incidents in which he was involved include the suppression of Matabele dissent in the 1980s.

Another shameful piece of history that Mnangagwa cannot escape is the suppression that followed the opposition Movement for Democratic Change winning the first round of the 2008 ballot that almost unseated Mugabe.

The “unity” government which followed was short-lived. Since the exit of MDC from any role in government in 2013, the Mugabe regime has persisted in its persecution of critics.

Many consider Mnangagwa responsible for overseeing Gukurahundi massacres between 1982 and 1986 in which 20,000 Ndebele perished.

In recent times, especially since the ousting of Vice President Joice Mujuru three years ago, Mugabe has routinely appeared in public with Grace on one side and Mnangagwa on the other.

FRAIL

As the elderly president grew increasingly frail, the struggle to succeed him became frenzied, with the two major camps vying for power — Grace’s G40 and Mnangagwa’s “Lacoste” faction.

Mnangagwa is the embodiment of the old guard. He enjoys strong military backing and especially from the veterans’ association, a powerful coalition of former combatants from the independence struggle which began in 1964 and ended in 1979.

Last year, the group broke ranks with Mugabe in a public letter, declaring that he had presided over corruption.

Many believed Mnangagwa orchestrated the group’s letter to warn would-be rivals.

Despite his reputation as being little different from Mugabe, what helped Mnangagwa has been the profound hatred by many towards Grace.

Ordinary Zimbabweans have christened her “Gucci Grace” because of her extravagant lifestyle.

And she has a reputation for cruelty, which was recently entrenched when she thrashed a 20-year old model in Johannesburg.

DEMOCRACY

How Mnangagwa will rule is unknown.

He may choose the “Mugabe option” of effective rule by fiat or he may cobble together a transitional government.

It’s also deeply unclear whether Mnangagwa and his allies have any real interest in introducing democracy to Zimbabwe.

Two key questions arise: Which side will prevail, and will violence break out?

The answers to both appear to hinge on Mnangagwa, a hard-nosed realist and survivor.

It may just be that he has realised that Zimbabwe needs a radical transformation, mainly of the nearly collapsed economy.

There is reason to believe an economically more stable and moderate regime will attract investors back into the country.

But its political fate will rest in how safe or otherwise the wily Mnangagwa feels — and as every Zimbabwean knows, “the crocodile” bites.