Nation holds its breath as Nigerians prepare to cast votes in tight polls

In exactly one week from today, Nigerians go to the polls to elect their next President in a tightly contested election.

The election pits incumbent  Goodluck Jonathan against Mohammed Buhari, a former military ruler.

Vivian Adeyemika and her husband, a banker in Lagos will spend the night at a hotel in Victoria Island,  20 minutes drive from their Lekki home so they can vote.

“Our vote matters. This year, we cannot let anything go to chance; we have to do our part to bring in our choice of candidate. Even if he does not win, we will have done our part,” she says.

All but necessary travel is restricted in the country on voting day. Kunle, an engineer who works on the Island says he will possibly not vote as he registered for his card near his workplace, but he is a resident in Ikeja.

LAST MINUTE POLL BOSS?

To cast his vote Kunle would have to cross the 10km Third Mainland Bridge answering to  a barrage of soldiers whose task is to ensure that movements are contained to voters and not troublemakers. “It would be too risky for me,” he says.

The nation will be holding its breath, hoping that the elections will finally come and more importantly, they will be free and fair under Prof Attahiru Jega, current chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

As late as Monday, seemingly orchestrated protesters congregated in Abuja, the nation’s capital, demanding the removal of Prof Jega. The protests, led by groups that support Jonathan wanted the INEC chairman to be sent on compulsory leave on account of his incompetence in preparing for the elections.

Should Jega be sent home, it will be a tragedy for democracy, but not altogether surprising. He assumed office after his predecessor, Maurice Iwu, was sent home months to the 2011 elections.

Part of the President’s credibility lies in whether he will replace Jega at the last minute or allow him to freely preside over this election. 

The Presidential and National Assembly elections were initially scheduled for February 14 until several factors forced them to be rescheduled to March 28.  The Governorship and State Assembly elections will be held on April 11.

Announcing the change of dates, Jega cited safety concerns stating that the security agencies had written to say they were unable to guarantee support for the elections had they been held in February.

In the following weeks, the military has run a joint force operation with neighbours Cameroon and Chad in the North against Boko Haram. It has been largely successful.

Senators from the North East have come out to say that 18 of the 20 local government areas that were under Boko Haram  have been liberated, according to Beegeagle, a blogger who reports on Nigeria’s military strategy.

“As BH get uprooted from the far-flung border districts, they are likely to blend into urban centres to carry out a campaign of suicide bombings. The Nigerian forces are even better at urban warfare, and are now prepared for it,” notes Beegeagle.

The military has since received positive goodwill, beginning with the Nollywood fraternity — a huge influence in the country— who last Sunday turned out in military fatigue for the Presidential interactive session.

TECHNOLOGY FAILURE

In a tweet, the military appreciated their efforts, calling for Nollywood to go further and produce a movie titled 'Never Again'.

The six-week break was also a godsend for INEC as it gave the it time to fully prepare itself logistically. Coming against a barrage of criticism for its own unpreparedness, INEC seems to have put its house in order.

The number of voter cards that remained uncollected has decreased and more than 75 per cent of registered voters are now ready to go to the polls.

Yet the issue of whether INEC will employ the use of technology in reading the cards to reduce fraud has been contentious. Those against the use of the card readers have cited their failure during testing but overall, the commission says quality assurance tests have proved successful and is confident they will work.

Indeed, this is a closely contested election and those involved have everything to lose or win.

Last year, President Goodluck had an almost clear chance at getting back to Aso Rock, but if he does, he will have fought for his legitimacy.

Buhari, though remembered as a brutal dictator, is admired for fighting corruption and his personal simplicity in life. He is the only Nigerian to have left the Presidency without amassing tonnes of wealth for himself; a trait that many say speaks for itself.

The business world is however torn between stability and a new dawn. With so many projects having been sanctioned under a Goodluck Jonathan administration, many are of the opinion that the economy is better off with continuity.

There is much for them to worry about. The election comes against a backdrop of falling oil prices and a devalued Naira, which the Central Bank is scrambling to protect. No matter the electoral outcome, this is a tough year for Nigeria, in what Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company has called, the beginning of a 7 lean year period for Nigeria.

Anne Mucheke is a consultant with Santuri Media and lives in Lagos