Election scare: Uhuru’s men in fight for political survival

At least three high-ranking Jubilee politicians are sitting on the edge of their chairs as strong opponents line up to claim their seats.

Majority Leaders in Parliament Kithure Kindiki (Senate), Aden Duale (National Assembly) and Kipchumba Murkomen (Prof Kindiki’s Deputy) are nowadays making more trips to their constituencies than at any other time since their election to try to wad off the increasing competition.

Their challengers seem to have seized the opportunity to do their groundwork when they were busy discharging their duties in Nairobi and elsewhere, some failing to balance between national calling and home duty.

It would be a fatal blow for Mr Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto were the three to lose in the General Election.

They would be deprived of not only dependable allies but also founder members of the ruling coalition whom they have relied to whip others into line.

Prof Kindiki faces an epic onslaught from businessman Francis Kiambi “Matanka”, his chief supporter in the 2013 polls, with whom he has since fallen out.

Mr Kiambi is said to have amassed a huge war chest and is now ready to splurge it.

Last year, he won Sh366 million worth of tenders to construct county headquarters at Kathwana Market.

Recent sentiments by Governor Samuel Ragwa, the Professor’s sworn political rival, perhaps best capture it: “Mr Kiambi is not a child. He has a war chest and is very prominent. He has money as he is a wealthy man and he can stand on his own.”

However, the law scholar downplays the events in his backyard.

“As far as I’m concerned, I will win the election for the second term. That does not stop others from running against me.”

He says the development is not unique to Tharaka-Nithi.

“You remember in Othaya there was always a candidate running against President Mwai Kibaki despite the fact that he kept on losing with less than a thousand votes when Kibaki was receiving over 50,000 votes. Even President Daniel Moi used to be challenged in Baringo Central.

"All serving legislators and even President is being challenged by opponents; that is democracy,” he said.

ONSLAUGHT AGAINST DUALE
Those close to Prof Kindiki say his announcement that he planned to be Mr Ruto’s running mate in 2022 must have exposed him to the firepower of those from the larger central Kenya equally keen on the slot.

Having him out of Parliament next year not only dims his star but knocks him out of the race for Deputy President.

Kiambu Governor William Kabogo is said to be among individuals keen to pair with the DP in 2022.

He must also stamp his authority on his Meru backyard where Senator Kiraitu Murungi remains the kingpin. 

In Garissa Township, Mr Farah Maalim is raring to go against Mr Duale.

“I have the backing of my constituents who have strong faith that I will change the fortunes of this town. I will do things differently,” Mr Maalim told the Sunday Nation.

Opposition chief Raila Odinga is rooting for the former Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, in a way making the Garissa Township race an Uhuru-verses-Raila duel.

Mr Duale is hoping to ride on the latest ranking by the National Board of Constituency Development Fund which placed him at the top in terms of efficient use of the constituency funds to secure another term.

The Board lists Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu and Mukurweini’s Kabando wa Kabando in position two and three respectively.

“Garissa is today connected to the national grid because of my effort. We have functional street lighting and at least 15 km of tarmacked road among other achievements. We plan to do more,” he said.

But he must also contend with the incumbency curse which dogs almost every sitting politician.

It also appears the powerful position he holds could prove to be a form of insurance and work for him.

The Sunday Nation has learnt that this is something the elders, notorious for whimsically deciding who runs for which elective seat in the North, are alive to.

They are said to be reluctant to lose the influence and closeness the abrasive lawmaker enjoys with President Kenyatta and his deputy which they say has brought with it good tidings. 

“They know anointing somebody other than Duale has the real risk of denying us a seat in Jubilee’s high table next year,” argues Mr Mohamed Muhidin from the area.

KIMAIYO'S CANDIDATURE

Reports have been rife that to escape “the looming humiliation”, Mr Duale is considering shifting his political base to Balambala constituency, currently represented by Mr Abdikadir Aden (ODM) in the National Assembly.

Mr Duale has a different explanation.

“It is not true that I want to run away. Why would I yet I’m satisfied that I have served my people well? My parents were born in Balambala and my clan is the majority there. While the request that I move came from the elders, the motivation is the kind of development I have brought in Township.”

Part of Balambala Constituency forms what used to be Dujis Constituency that he represented in Parliament before the 2010 Constitution re-drew the boundaries.

Losing to Mr Maalim or any other candidate will perhaps make Mr Duale the greatest casualty and, being the President’s foremost defender, wading off attacks from the opposition makes him a premium target and being the leader of North Eastern Parliamentary Group further elevates him.

The reality means that while they must be seen as drumming support for the President’s re-election, they must equally divide their time in such a way that they do not drown in the intense heat coming from their opponents for they are fat cats the opposition would want to dislodge from their seats as a way of getting at UhuRuto.

But while they want them out, the opposition may choose to be tactical by not directly endorsing their opponents as this may end up working for the President’s men.

The support, save for Garissa where Mr Odinga has made it known, must therefore be subtle.

In Elgeyo-Marakwet, Senator Murkomen faces stiff opposition from former Inspector-General of Police David Kimaiyo whom he accuses of eyeing his seat on grounds that he orchestrated his sacking.

“Fair enough. Why can’t he tell the nation why he was also sacked from the airport 17 months later? Why can’t he tell the nation why, after his departure, the security of the nation has improved under [Mr Joseph] Boinnet?

"Verily verily I say unto you, Elgeyo Marakwet County will not be under Sieke (malapropism for siege once used by Mr Kimaiyo). At least not under my watch!” he charged.

But the former crime-buster is reportedly no pushover.

WASHIALI'S CHALLENGER
In response, the former IG told the Sunday Nation that he had done his groundwork and it is only a matter of time before he dislodges the vocal ally of the Deputy President.

He will be running on a Kanu ticket. The party has considerable following in the Rift Valley region while Mr Murkomen looks forward to defending his seat on the newly formed Jubilee Party ticket.

Political commentators like Dr Joshua Kivuva reckons that Jubilee will employ every trick in the book to ensure its lieutenants make it back to Parliament.

“With their support bases supporting Mr Kenyatta, the Jubilee machine will come to the rescue of Prof Kindiki and Mr Murkomen, but Duale must work extra hard to come back as Garissa politics largely revolves around clans which can defy national trends and euphoria,” says the political science lecturer from the University of Nairobi.

The don states that Mr Kimaiyo’s lacklustre stint as IG may come to haunt him in the campaign trail, handing his opponent an advantage.

The showdown in Elgeyo-Marakwet will bring the Deputy President and his archrival in the Rift Valley, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, head to head. It will be an expensive contest.

Were the three to fall, they would not be the first high-profile casualties of stiff political competition as history is replete with luminaries who fell by the wayside such as Minister Najib Balala, Sam Ongeri and even Mr Odinga who was running for presidency having been the premier before the 2013 polls.

UhuRuto, as the presidential duo is referred to in political circles, would thereafter have to recruit new political wingers should they secure another term in office.

Another key Jubilee pointman from Western, Mumias East MP Ben Washiali, who is Jubilee’s Deputy Chief Whip in the National Assembly, will not have it easy either.

He is facing mounting challenge from former Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress and ODM.