Why stakes are high for Uhuru, Ruto, Raila ahead of 2017 polls

President Uhuru Kenyatta is pulling out all the stops to ensure he does not become a one term Head of State, as the Opposition works to form a super alliance ahead of the 2017 elections.

Aware of the high stakes, Mr Kenyatta has reportedly brought in more advisers outside his traditional team to specifically work on his bid for a second term.

Multiple sources interviewed for this article, but who spoke to the Sunday Nation in confidence, said many of the new advisers are drawn from academia.

And, for variety purposes, he is said to lately consult more frequently with older hands like Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi, the same man Mr Kenyatta tasked to lead the merger of parties affiliated to Jubilee coalition, and a strong tower in the election of President Mwai Kibaki.

For Mr Kenyatta, his Deputy William Ruto and Opposition chief Raila Odinga, the stakes appear to be higher than for other political players.

The creation of this new set of advisers is an addition to the many strategies employed by Jubilee in an attempt to trounce their opponents. Mr Kenyatta and his deputy have led a concerted offensive in Cord strongholds with Gusiiland, Luhyaland and Coast being the prime targets.

Another plan, the Sunday Nation has learnt, will be to sponsor or at least encourage more presidential contenders from the opposition to run with the aim of reducing Cord’s votes while at the same time trying to keep Jubilee strongholds intact.

Even though recent opinion polls show the President is ahead of his rivals and though there is a perception among a section of supporters that 2017 is a done deal, Mr Kenyatta is taking no chances amid intense mobilisation by his opponents.

RE-ELECTION ARSENAL

Insiders with knowledge of the goings-on in Mr Kenyatta’s court paint a picture of a re-election arsenal that is far larger than what he assembled in 2013. Back then, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, his running mate, were fighting crimes against humanity charges.

He is already working on his re-election budget that could run into billions of shillings.

Senate Majority Leader Kithure Kindiki, a Jubilee insider, agrees that unlike in 2013, the next election brings with it immense expectations and anxiety.
“Most of the projects we have initiated require more time to take effect. For instance, the SGR (the Standard Gauge Railway) will not make so much sense if it does not reach Malava and beyond, Jubilee needs another term to finish it,” he said.

He added that the stakes have been driven higher because “for the first time, the country is being governed by an administration that follows its campaign manifesto”.

“Jubilee will be judged based on its (manifesto). We must ensure President Kenyatta is re-elected because our lifeline as Jubilee depends on it next year and beyond,” he said.

Faced with the grave charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) which carried severe penalties if convicted, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto hired some of the best campaign consultants in the world, mainly sourced from the UK.

And now with the ICC burden off his shoulders after the criminal charges were dropped, Mr Kenyatta will have to re-invent himself and find another rallying call.

Observers have pointed out that by projecting ICC as serving foreign interests, the duo was able to create a siege mentality among their supporters, riding on it to victory.

Compared to Mr Odinga’s supporters who have had to endure three losses — 1997, 2007 and 2013 — the Central Kenya voters have known nothing less than victory since President Moi retired 14 years ago. Mr Kenyatta wouldn’t want to stop that streak.

Like a baby kangaroo in a pouch, Mr Ruto’s 2022 State House dreams are largely dependent on his boss’s re-election, and as such it will be like two elections in one. In the event they are jointly shown the door next year, Mr Ruto will find it hard convincing his Rift Valley supporters that he made the right choice in leading his URP party into a merger with Mr Kenyatta’s TNA.

It will even be harder making them believe that a continued alliance is in their best interest.

The downside for the DP is that a loss for Mr Kenyatta will embolden alternative voices in his backyard who are keen to challenge his style of leadership.
It would give them a fertile platform to tell the people that it is time they sought another alliance which would guarantee them the presidency as opposed to the status quo.

The creation of a monolith party by Mr Kenyatta, the Jubilee party which other than securing the presidential seat is meant to boost the numbers in Parliament, is seen more as an acknowledgement of the upcoming daunting task.

Jubilee Party, which will be launched next weekend, is a product of a merger of about a dozen parties. It is hoped that DP Ruto will inherit Jubilee supporters once his boss hangs up his boots.

SHELVE HIS AMBITION

For Mr Odinga, it is now or never. The situation explains why his diehard supporters like Siaya Senator James Orengo have dismissed a suggestion that he should shelve his ambition in support of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi.

If he clinches the coveted Cord ticket, Mr Odinga will be running for the fourth time and his advisers say he must give it his best shot ever.

Mr Orengo, a close ally of the ODM party leader, says the duel is a do-or-die contest for their man.

He believes that Mr Odinga has realistic chances of defeating President Kenyatta but stresses that this is only possible in a free and fair contest.

“A lot of frustrations and burden of stolen elections will be hanging in the horizon. Fair registration of voters and a robust electoral infrastructure is key to a Raila presidency. Anything short of this will once again see subverting of the popular will of the people.”

He agrees that this being Mr Kenyatta’s last run, he will certainly give it his all.

“Losing will make him a one-term president, not an admirable legacy among Africans.”

On the other hand, should Mr Odinga run and lose, it could also spell a death knell for Cord, an amalgamation of ODM, Wiper under former Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka, and Senate Minority Leader Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford-Kenya.

To Mr Orengo, “the one bullet” phrase variously used within Cord to mean Mr Odinga will make a last stab at the presidency next year is mere political characterisation.

“Like Mandela, Raila is a conviction politician not a career one. This category of politicians only retire when the job is done,” he said. There have been suggestions he could support someone else with Mr Mudavadi’s name being mentioned.

Majority Whip Katoo ole Metito, however, sought to downplay the ballooning anxiety in the corridors of power as the election date fast approaches saying that Jubilee was confident that voters would give them a second term.

“We will be banking on our track record in the last five years to earn another term. From roads to provision of electricity and restoring the country’s image on the global stage, Jubilee deserves another term in office,” he said.

On a broader scale, Prof Winnie Mitullah, the Head of the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Nairobi, says the billions of devolved funds will further create “mini presidential contests in counties”.

She thinks there could be heated and potentially violent contests after party primaries after party hopping was banned.

“It does not help in cooling off the already rising temperatures. It is a scary situation because these nominations will more or less be the real elections. Once you secure the party ticket, you are as good as elected.”