As referendum year dawns, will three-pronged bid do the trick?

Cord leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s forecast that 2016 is the referendum year could indeed come to pass.

There are, so far, three parallel pushes to amend the Constitution via popular initiative — and all of them expected to climax in the year we are ushering in on Friday. That is besides Cord’s Okoa Kenya initiative.

The jostling has served to offer a window into the high octane politics expected to dominate 2016, which will also unveil various aspirants keen to unseat the current crop of elected leaders.

A bruising face-off is imminent between the government and the opposition that could shape the country’s political architecture ahead of the General Election.

Cord management committee co-chairman James Orengo said that all the county assemblies they have met expressed support for Okoa Kenya. “In January, we will meet the remaining clusters of assemblies to enlist their support. Our aim is to surpass the minimum constitutional requirement of 24 assemblies.”

“Before this, we shall have organised a “mini-Bomas” of all political parties, civil societies, religious and professional bodies to discuss the way forward,” said ODM director of campaigns Junet Mohamed.

Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria (TNA) is currently collecting signatures for his “Punguza Mzigo” (reduce the burden) initiative. His plan is to reduce MPs from 290 to 200, reduce the number of governors from 47 to 16 and abolish nominations to Parliament and to county assemblies.

Mr Joe Mutambu (Mwingi Central MP) has sponsored the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill 2015, which was published a fortnight ago with the main aim of reducing the number of counties to 25, abolition of the Senate, scrapping of women representative position and doing away with nomination slots for political parties.

Another radical proposal that Mr Kuria puts across is abolition of the Senate and the position of women representatives. But observers say this is self-defeating since he needs the support of both the Senate and the County Assemblies to actualise his ambition, yet they cannot sign their own suicide note.

Together with Boresha Katiba, led by Jubilee MPs, the likelihood of a referendum is all too real, raising eyebrows within Cord over the overnight interest in what was initially detested by those in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s camp.

Wiper Secretary-General and Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar dismissed the parallel initiatives by Jubilee-leaning MPs as only meant to derail Okoa Kenya.

“They (Boresha Katiba and Punguza Mzigo) are not genuine. It is a Confucius strategy by Jubilee for obvious reasons.”

Tiaty MP Asman Kamama, also the chairman of the National Assembly’s administration and national security committee, and his Kilgoris counterpart Gideon Konchella, say constitutional lawyers will formulate a preliminary Bill for the Boresha Katiba drive.

Soon they will be collecting signatures to send to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

“The leaders will then agree on the timing of the referendum. If the ruling coalition agrees to take up (Boresha Katiba), we will not refuse,” Mr Konchella said. He stated that even though they agree with certain proposals in Cord’s Okoa Kenya initiative, they do not support some clauses.

The majority of Jubilee politicians have expressed support for Mr Kamama’s drive, prompting observers to point out that MPs cannot take on an assignment of this magnitude without the blessings of the prince (President Kenyatta).

He has announced that at least 185 lawmakers have confirmed their support.

The IEBC has up to February 9 to send the Okoa Kenya referendum Bill to counties for consideration.

In preparation, Jubilee is mobilising its resources at county assemblies level since any of the referenda will be won or lost here.

The unspoken fear in Jubilee circles is that allowing Mr Odinga to lead a successful plebiscite could spell doom to Mr Kenyatta in 2017. It could give Mr Odinga a broader war-chest. Although inquiries conducted after the disputed presidential poll in 2007 could not determine who between Mr Odinga and Mr Mwai Kibaki won, it is widely believed that the No vote on a proposed Constitution that the former Prime Minister led in 2005 placed him in a better fighting position. The Jubilee camp will be seeking to deny him this opportunity.

Mr Kuria says Kenyans are over-represented and that his referendum would save the economy some Sh50 billion annually. “Look at the way counties are doing the right thing by forming economic blocs. We started with Jumuiya ya Kaunti za Pwani (an economic bloc of counties from the coast).

Then we had the North Rift Economic Bloc (NOREB). Governors need to agree that these blocs should be the basis of the revised counties.

Mr Kenyatta has in the past voiced his opposition to a referendum, both by members of his coalition and by the opposition.

When governors first announced plans to change the laws to have more money sent to counties, he asked them to resign and seek a fresh mandate, charging that they were acting against the wishes of the ruling coalition’s development agenda.

The county chiefs have since gone mute on their Pesa Mashinani call, with reports that a number of Jubilee-leaning governors retreated for fear of political repercussions after Mr Kenyatta’s dressing down.

What excites the government most about Mr Kuria’s Bill is the prospect of reducing the wage bill. Jubilee blames the high wage bill on the two tier-government brought about by devolution.

Most poignantly, senators support a referendum that would strengthen their House, which has had a number of supremacy run-ins with the National Assembly.

It will be interesting to see if senators will back Cord’s Okoa Kenya initiative, which is laced with sweeteners such as handing the senate more roles in legislation and appointment of key state officers.

A recommendation of a committee of the Senate on constitutional and legal review, chaired by Senator Kipchumba Murkomen (Jubilee) in September, said as much. “… that the Senate approves the processing of the general suggestion for the draft Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2015 by way of a popular initiative in terms of Article 257 of the Constitution.”

But National Assembly Majority Whip Katoo ole Metito insists they must first exhaust the option of amending the law in Parliament before they can seek a referendum.

IEBC chairman Issack Hassan has said it is possible to conduct a referendum before the General Election, easing fear among those pushing for the exercise that they could be time-barred.