Coalition or single party, which camp will triumph?

With President Uhuru Kenyatta leaving no doubt about his support for the merger of parties affiliated to the ruling coalition, it is clear that the next polls will be fought predominantly between a unitary Jubilee Party and a conglomerate of parties in Cord.

While the Raila Odinga-led Cord has formally shelved plans to collapse its affiliate parties into one unit ahead of the next elections, the Jubilee alliance has announced that come March, it will have converted into a single party.

The development brings to the fore two competing political ideologies that the erstwhile competitors will once again take to the campaign trail after elections boss Issack Hassan confirmed August 8, 2017 as the Election Day.

The implication is that unlike the previous election when three leading presidential aspirants, Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga of Cord and Mr Musalia Mudavadi, now Amani National Congress leader, were sponsored by coalitions, the next elections will largely be fought between coalitions and one unified Jubilee party.

But there is always the possibility of an overnight change in the political architecture, given that Kenya’s electoral scenarios are ever-shifting.

The scenario would mirror the 2002 elections when a deeply entrenched Kanu was dislodged by a coalition of opposition parties, although the outcome may not necessarily be the same.

In separate interviews with the Sunday Nation, each camp sought to justify the route it has chosen to take.

ODM director of campaigns Junet Mohamed gave an overview of some of the considerations. “We want to continue espousing the divergent views of the country, something that is not tenable in a single party. A mix of ideologies and views that can all be cooked in one pot,” he said.

President Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto met members of Jubilee coalition from across the country two weeks ago, presiding on the death of affiliated political parties. The meeting brought together Jubilee MPs, governors and county assembly speakers and was held at State House.

“In the country’s political dynamics, only a coalition can work. The reality is that we vote along ethnic, regional and in some cases religious lines.

Different blocs feel more at home when the first basis of mobilisation is a party they see as theirs,” Mr Mohamed, who is also the Suna East MP, added.

But the fear of disintegrating, particularly at the nomination stage, clearly informed the move by the opposition leaders.

For those in Cord who refused to let go of their parties, an overriding fear of dictatorship by the majority was evident. Some MPs who spoke to the Sunday Nation said Cord is now the richer, since intraparty hopping would still be possible without hurting the coalition’s presidential ambition in case a member feels short-changed during nominations.

But proponents of the one-party approach — like the chairman of the steering committee on merger and Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi — says it will help the DP inherit President Kenyatta’s central Kenya political sanctuary in the 2022 polls.

“We also want to see Mr Ruto ascend to power in 2022. That is why we are doing this (merging parties). We want to synchronise our energies and efforts into one national party for easy and efficient mobilisation,” he said.

National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale said strong political parties are essential for a vibrant democracy. “Our democracy will mature only if we kick out tribal-based affiliations and move to political parties grounded on ideological foundation,” he said.

Mr David Murathe, vice chairman of JAP, one of the Jubilee parties facing extinction, had earlier expressed hope that Cord would also dissolve its member parties in what he believes would have ushered in stronger political institutions.

“Our hope has always been that we move towards building stronger parties. We would have been glad for the sake of our democracy if Cord and other parties took a cue from the president’s party,” he said.

“For our democracy to firm up, we have to severe links with parochial and primordial loyalties,” Mr Duale added in what would likely be interpreted as an affront on those not willing to follow suit.

Ford Kenya Secretary General Eseli Simiyu said they were still able to achieve their political objectives without dissolving parties. “In the past 10 years, the country has been governed by coalitions. But we cannot afford to kill parties with a national heritage, like Ford-Kenya,” he said.

Cord is made up of three principal parties — Ford Kenya, whose party leader is Senate Minority leader Moses Wetang’ula, Mr Odinga’s ODM, and Wiper, led by former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.

The idea of collapsing opposition parties into one unit had been mooted immediately after the last elections, with the need to eliminate duplicity of energies and achieve better mobilisation of members being the main motivating factors.

But when Jubilee made the announcement first, it was unlikely that Cord would do the same, to avoid being labelled copycats. A selected group of MPs drawn from the three parties have silently been reviewing the prospects of a merger and their advice informed the final decision by the coalition chiefs.

But perhaps the earliest indication that Cord would maintain the status quo was seen when it zoned the country on the basis of the support each party had — the Battlegrounds and the Red Zones.

Initially, there was concern over political “cannibalism” that has been seen before as Cord affiliates seek parallel support from the 47 counties, slowing the match to State House.

Mr Tom Mboya, a political science lecturer at Maseno University, said coalitions work best for heterogeneous constituencies like Kenya’s. As opposed to alliances, matters of party discipline are easy to handle, he said. “You see many cases where Cord MPs vote with their counterparts from Jubilee in Parliament.

Though there could be good reasons for this, it is easier to rein in deviant members when under one political party, unlike in coalitions. Crucial decisions can also be made quickly,” he said.

In a situational analysis of political parties in Kenya sometime back, Mr Wolfgang Ahner-Toennis, a resident representative for Kenya of Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation, under the title, “Weighing options for electoral victory”, writes: “Unlike many countries in sub-Saharan Africa where one dominating political party determines the structure and development of political competition, Kenya presents a situation where more than one party of comparative strength present similar chances of garnering the majority in an election.”

Mr Ruto’s URP party has been hesitant to close shop, and in some cases has voiced concern that its members may not have anywhere to turn to should the deal go sour. Contrary to the current arrangement where they have a pre-election pact with TNA on how to share power, they may not make demands on certain appointments.

When Mr David Kimaiyo retired as Inspector General of Police, URP politicians insisted that a replacement must come from the Rift Valley. Mr Kenyatta complied and appointed Mr Joseph Boinnet.

So serious has the matter become that the DP hosted URP members at his Sugoi home this week to allay their fears.