Did Ruto overrun his opponents or is it a case of tactical retreat?

What appeared to be a coordinated two-pronged rebellion facing Deputy President William Ruto in his Rift Valley stronghold has considerably waned in recent months, raising questions about the ability of his critics to launch a credible challenge. 

The DP had for months come under intense pressure from the double attack of bellicose Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto (URP) on the one hand and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi on the other. The URP leader has had a firm grip in the regional politics since the 2007 General Election.

The region was instrumental in delivering the presidency to Jubilee.

PESA MASHINANI

To complicate matters, Governor Ruto had intensified campaigns for the Pesa Mashinani referendum seeking more money for counties.

Mr Moi, the Baringo Senator and son of retired President Daniel arap Moi, and his Kanu brigade had travelled the region purportedly to address the concerns of maize farmers aggrieved by the prices offered for their harvest.

Other politicians like Kericho Governor Paul Chepkwony (URP), renegade Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter (URP), Narok Senator Stephen ole Ntutu (URP) and Kanu Secretary-General Nick Salat were also defiant.  

Since he relinquished the chairmanship of the Council of Governors to his Meru counterpart Peter Munya in May, Governor Ruto appears to have slowed down while Mr Moi also seems to have gone into hibernation.

It is a coincidence that has raised eye-brows, considering that multiple interviews with insiders in both camps indicated that no truce was struck.

Early this year, President Uhuru Kenyatta stepped in to put out political fires in his deputy’s backyard in two trips, one to Bomet and the other to Nandi.

In April, fears of a domino effect in the region prompted the DP to claim that his opponents were praying that he loses the crimes against humanity charges he is facing at the International Criminal Court in The Hague to give them room.

“I have tried with a lot of difficulties to understand why Isaac and Gideon are fighting me. If you see the duo, inform them to continue digging the grave for Ruto, but remind them not to dig deep because they might find themselves inside the same (hole),” the DP told a public meeting in Njoro, Nakuru County. He added that the plan to fight him politically would fail.

Observers said this was meant to draw the sympathy of the masses and cool political temperatures.

GOOD STUDENT

At the same time, some analysts said that the DP was being a good student of Chinese military general and strategist Sun Tzu who, in the Art of War, warns against underestimating one’s opponents, thereby going full throttle for them.

With the governor seemingly taking a beating from the Jubilee lieutenants, Deputy Speaker and Sotik MP Joyce Laboso, an ally of the URP boss, appears to be gaining confidence in her intention to win the Bomet seat in the next elections.

The DP’s right hand man and Kericho Senator Charles Keter (URP) attributes the “slow-down gear” to “hostile reception on the ground”. “These people have lost steam. That is the price you pay for starting something that has no agenda,” he told the Sunday Nation. He believes Governor Ruto and his allies have realised the political might of the DP in the Rift Valley cannot be taken for granted.

“To be honest, you cannot challenge William (Mr Ruto) in Rift Valley. You do so at your own peril, we have not told any of them to shut up but see, they cannot keep the momentum,” he said.

But the Governor and Kanu’s Mr Salat rejected this view.

“That was a temporary timeout. We will see who will eventually be run out of town. The DP keeps chasing our shadow. That is why he insults us at every public rally he attends in the Rift Valley,” Mr Salat told the Sunday Nation, alluding to the DP’s criticism of Kanu and its leaders last weekend.

Unlike the DP, who has state machinery at his disposal, he said, they could not afford to move around the region without taking a break. “His activities are backed by the state so he can afford to be all over the place; for us, every penny counts,” said Mr Salat.

Governor Ruto, right, said nothing had changed, but he did not want to steal the limelight from Mr Munya, the new council boss, who needed to settle on the job first. 

“I handed over the chairmanship of Governors Council. I am resolute on what I have been pushing for,” he said.

NEW PARTY

The county chief scoffed at the DP’s push to herd Rift Valley politicians to join the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP).

“The hawkish elements in TNA and the ultra-sycophants in URP are the ones who will end up in JAP — and may be merchants and outright looters. I am in this for the long haul: To move away from tribal politics and to ensure devolution works,” he said.

Mr Salat accused the DP of disparaging the former ruling party, which is allied to Jubilee, instead of seeking to forge closer ties.

“History will never be changed and it can only be repeated. What Mr Ruto should know is that he owes his political ascendency to Kanu as he was a Kanu project and his political career was well moulded by the former president,” said Mr Salat.

The Deputy President has in the past told Senator Moi “to accept to be led since others also subjected themselves to his father’s rule for 24 years”.

The bid to popularise JAP in Rift Valley has run into headwinds after a number of influential politicians voiced resistance and insisted on strengthening URP, which is in a coalition with President Kenyatta’s TNA.

The DP has in the last two weeks intensified his tours in the region to drum up support for JAP as their 2017 vehicle.

Additional reporting by Francis Mureithi