Opposition within: Echoes of Raila’s LDP in Ruto’s brigade

Having lived through a one-party system where Kanu had a firm grip on the country’s politics, many Kenyans were taken aback when Cabinet ministers allied to Mr Raila Odinga’s Liberal Democratic Party publicly opposed positions taken by President Mwai Kibaki as the honeymoon of Narc’s 2002 election victory ended.

In Kanu’s heyday, no government functionary or individual elected on its ticket would dare go against the party stand.

But things have changed since the historic 2002 elections that kicked Kanu out of power.

And the ruling Jubilee Alliance bringing together URP and TNA is showing signs of sliding towards the direction of Narc, despite its commendable unity efforts so far.

Keen observers now say the situation mirrors the tribulations of Narc under then President Kibaki, with URP taking the part of LDP.

Mr Kibaki was, for instance, forced to contend with a rabble-rousing LDP over a contentious Memorandum of Understanding that the Kibaki side of government apparently trashed after the election victory.    

Mr Kibaki would later sack the LDP faction from government and form the Government of National Unity after he suffered a humiliating defeat at the constitutional referendum in 2005. LDP opposed the government sponsored charter.

TENSION CREATED
And now, most of the trouble for the ruling coalition appears to almost always stem from a section of URP MPs — some openly showing dissent, others doing the same behind the scene.

They have a number of grievances against President Kenyatta with the latest being his “reluctance” to re-admit URP-leaning Cabinet secretaries Felix Koskei (Agriculture) and Davies Chirchir (Energy) who have been cleared of graft allegations by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission.

The International Criminal Court case against Mr Ruto has also created tension, with some of his allies claiming he had been abandoned.

URP MPs like Alfred Keter (Nandi Hills), Zakayo Cheruiyot (Kuresoi South) and governors Isaac Ruto (Bomet) and Paul Chepkwony (Kericho) have distinguished themselves as vocal Jubilee critics.

They have been raising issues their colleagues would rather not address so as not to jolt the ruling coalition.

When Devolution and Planning Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru moved Mr Kiplimo Rugut from the helm of the National Youth Service last year, for instance, they were up in arms, charging that their community was being targeted in the reorganisation in the public service.

And last weekend, Uasin Gishu Senator Isaac Melly and Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi went against the Jubilee position when they called for the suspension of Ms Waiguru over the loss of Sh791 million at NYS.

“We are concerned about the manner in which people are treated differently, especially for Cabinet Secretaries, when claims of graft surface,” Mr Melly told Sunday Nation.

BLACKMAIL TOOL
In some quarters, the threat to impeach Ms Waiguru by Mr Keter is a blackmail tool meant to have Mr Kenyatta reinstate the suspended ministers. The MP denies this.

Political analyst Joshua Kivuva thinks the genesis of the problem is the feeling in URP that they are in government “yet in the cold”.

“Of course more trouble stems from what they consider selective justice when it comes to the war on corruption,” Dr Kivuva says.

He argues that Mr Ruto will be forced to actively stop MPs from his backyard from supporting the impeachment – to avoid a major fallout.

“The allegation about the motion being a diversion from the ICC issues is being used to blackmail MPs. When it comes to Waiguru, people are coming to lecture us about Jubilee. What is so special about Waiguru?” asks Mr Keter.

The MP was responding to National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale who said, “His history within our coalition is known to all and sundry, from the standard gauge railway to the weighbridge in Gilgil.

We know what Alfred Keter has become for Cord. He speaks for some dark forces, people who want to create a diversionary tactic.”

But other commentators like Prof Winnie Mitullah point out that the bickering in Jubilee is good for democracy.

“It simply means that these fellows have rejected the herd mentality. The official government mouthpiece may dismiss, even condemn them, but any serious leader would pay attention to what they are saying,” she argues.

A DIFFERENT TACTIC
Just like Mr Odinga would come out to ask his lieutenants in LDP to be patient with Mr Kibaki hoping he would honour the MoU, Mr Ruto has been condemning the likes of Governor Ruto as having sold their soul to the opposition and out to rock the Jubilee boat.

Give it to him, the DP has been unflinchingly loyal to Mr Kenyatta, at least if the public display of camaraderie is not plastic.

Mr Kenyatta and his deputy parade themselves as being very close, ties that apparently stem from the days they were together in Kanu.

To many political analysts, the DP comes across as a shrewd politician, having negotiated a better deal for his party than the power-sharing arrangement between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki.

Unlike Mr Odinga who would later openly take on Mr Kibaki, Mr Ruto has apparently employed a different tactic – patience.

He has declared that he would wait until Mr Kenyatta finishes his two terms before he can offer himself for election in 2022.

“Today, Mr Mudavadi (former deputy prime minister Musalia Mudavadi) is in the political cold because of listening to Kanu party leaders who misled him into believing he could beat President Kenyatta,” Mr Ruto said in August while at a public function in Nandi County. 

LDP CONTRIBUTION
He added: “Narc leader Martha Karua is also out of Parliament because she was misled into fighting President Kenyatta who enjoyed massive support among voters in Kenya. I will not make such a mistake.”

Some observers have also pointed that the 2010 Constitution, which requires that pre-election pact among political parties be deposited with the registrar of political parties, has helped keep the two parties together without which a party would easily drop its partner after ascending to power.

Leading figures in government like Mr Duale however disagree with the LDP/URP comparison, insisting the kind of synergy between the President and his deputy is comparable to none in the country’s history.

Even opposition figures like ODM Secretary for political affairs Opiyo Wandayi say the contribution LDP made in terms of laying ground for change cannot be compared to “domestic fights” in the ruling coalition.

But only time will tell whether or not the grumbling will turn into a full blown rebellion.