Fear of dictatorship courtesy of Jubilee’s numerical strength

Buoyed by their numerical strength in both Houses of Parliament following last week’s polls, members of President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party are destined to take total control of the country’s legislative agenda in the next five years.

National Assembly’s Leader of Majority in the Eleventh Parliament, Aden Duale, is already savouring the moment.

He says once Parliament gets down to business, Mr Kenyatta’s party will prioritise the removal of Auditor-General Edward Ouko and Chairman of National Lands Commission Muhamad Swazuri from office.

Ouko and Swazuri are among the senior officers in government the Jubilee administration has been uncomfortable with and whom Duale vows to eject from office, “courtesy of our superior numbers”.

On Friday, the Garissa Town-elect MP promised to expound on his sentiments but, by the time of going to press, he had not come through.

However, Jubilee Party vice- chairman David Murathe appeared to echo Duale’s position by emphasising parliamentarians allied to the party were going to take full advantage of their numerical strength to push through friendly legislation: “Last time we had the so-called tyranny of numbers, but this time we are calling it ‘tyranny reloaded’ — we are larger and stronger and it will not be business as usual for those keen at frustrating the President’s efforts of building a better Kenya for us all.”

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Mr Kenyatta’s declaration as victor of the presidential race has, however, been challenged in the Supreme Court by the National Super Alliance (Nasa).

This means Jubilee’s quest to influence the legislative agenda could — to some extent — be checked by the Executive, in the event the Supreme Court fails to uphold Mr Kenyatta’s win and his key rival, Raila Odinga, wins the subsequent runoff poll.

But if Mr Odinga’s suit is dismissed or he loses in the runoff, Jubilee will have a free hand to influence legislative changes in Parliament with full backing from the Executive.     

With slightly lesser numbers, the Jubilee friendly MPs determinedly pushed through legislation — some under very chaotic circumstances — during the Eleventh Parliament.

In December 2014, for instance, National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi engaged Opposition legislators in a shouting match as he presided over the passing of security laws amid flying objects and hurling of abuses by MPs.

His deputy, Joyce Laboso, was splashed with water by Homa Bay County Woman Representative Gladys Wanga.

DRAMATIC FASHION

In a similarly dramatic fashion in December last year, the Jubilee legislators passed amendments to Election Laws (Amendment) Act providing for “complementary” transmission of results and identification of voters in case technology fails, in a record 45 minutes! The legislative coup was executed as security was stepped up around Parliament Buildings with police anti-riot trucks around Parliament.

“Going by the behaviour of Jubilee in the last Parliament, there is reason for every rational thinking Kenyan to be worried. I see them doing everything in their capacity to dismantle the law, I see them populating senior government positions with individuals allied to them, and I see them pursuing partisan and ethnic agendas with impunity,” reacts public law advocate Harun Ndubi.

The lawyer views attempts by the Non-Governmental Organisation Coordination Board boss Fazul Mahamed to deregister Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) and African Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG) as the Jubilee administration’s move to crack down on operations of the civil society. 

“With these numbers (of MPs), Kenyans must now brace themselves for rough times ahead. It is clear to us Jubilee now expects of us three things — silence, obedience and loyalty. Only a vibrant and fearless civil society, the media and judiciary can rescue Kenyans from being taken back to the oppressive single-party era,” argues Ndubi.

DETENTION

During the single-party era in the 1960s through to 1992, Kenya’s first President Jomo Kenyatta and his successor Daniel arap Moi consolidated their hold on power through repressive laws including detention of politicians critical of their regimes.

Freedom of speech and association was stifled and only two sets of parliamentarians – the so-called “seven bearded sisters” and later the “Young Turks” – mounted resistance to bring about change.

“The seven bearded sisters”, as labelled by then Attorney-General Charles Njonjo, were the seven combative anti-establishment legislators in the 1970s.

They included Siaya County senator-elect James Orengo, Abuya Abuya, Koigi wa Wamwere, Machengu wa Mwachofi, Chibule wa Tsuma, Wasike Ndombi and Lawrence Sifuna.

Also associated with this group were Chelagat Mutai and Onyango Midika.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, another group of young professionals took the political scene by storm.

They agitated for re-introduction of multi-party politics at the most difficult of times with some getting clobbered by security forces and detained in the process.

YOUNG PROFESSIONALS

This team of young professionals in their 30s and 40s included Paul Muite, Gitobu Imanyara, Kiraitu Murungi, Martha Karua, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, Dr Oki Ooko Ombaka, Anyang’ Nyong’o, Raila Odinga, Wamalwa Kijana, James Orengo and Prof Rashid Mzee. 

Their efforts were beefed up by church leaders such as retired Archbishop Ndingi Mwana a’Nzeki, the late Bishop Alexander Muge, Rev Timothy Njoya, the late Archbishop David Gitari and the late Bishop Henry Okullu.

Also actively involved were members of the civil society – Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Dr Willy Mutunga, Pheroze Nowrojee and John Khaminwa, among others.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, a commentator on political affairs, concurs that Jubilee’s commanding control over the two Houses is bound to fuel the fear that a revamped and re-energised party can drift towards the tyranny of yesteryears.

However, he opines that the President-elect will prioritise democracy, consolidation of institutions and inclusivity as foundations of development and prosperity as his enduring legacy.

According to Kagwanja, the “tyranny of numbers” from the two Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, who are in partnership in Jubilee,  has MPs and Senators from more regions of Kenya than after 2013, making for diversity of voices from across the country: “Kenyatta now has the requisite majority in Parliament to make effective legal changes to entrench the new constitution.”

FRIENDLY LEGISLATION

However, Murathe explains that Mr Kenyatta “will utilise the numbers positively” to enable him to make friendly legislation in order to execute his development agenda where previously his hands were tied.

The Jubilee party official separately reassures Nasa rivals that his party members will cooperate with the opposition in addressing the politics of exclusion — real or perceived — “with a view to ensuring everybody is included in governance, for this is the legacy the President wants to leave to Kenyans”.

However, an upbeat Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) director of elections, Junet Mohamed, believes the numbers will ultimately change in favour of his party leader, Mr Odinga, “once we get past the Supreme Court and win in the subsequent runoff”.

JUBILEE

“Once we overturn these results in our favour, we shall have the majority on our side by winning over independent legislators and those from parties not aligned to either Jubilee or Nasa,” says Junet, observing that MPs tend to align themselves with the government of the day.

Presently, however, the Suna East MP says the opposition is not scared of Jubilee’s so-called “tyranny of numbers” because “it is better to have fewer and committed members than a huge lot with divided loyalties”.

On the “brighter side of things,” according to Ndubi, “Jubilee’s tyranny of numbers might just blind them into becoming a terrible bully government, leading to its own downfall at the ballot in 2022”.

In the meantime, the numbers in the two Houses could change owing to parliamentary election petitions. Nonetheless, this will not fundamentally change the balance as the Jubilee Party is destined to remain in the drivers’ seat.