Governors face stiff contests in 15 battleground counties

Early campaigns for the prestigious and powerful position of governor have started months before next year’s election.

While all the 47 counties are set to be the scene of heated contests for the governor’s position, an analysis by the Sunday Nation points to 15 devolved units that will be tough election battlegrounds as new entrants seek to send the incumbents packing.

They include Nairobi, Meru, Mombasa, Murang’a, Kiambu, Machakos, Kisumu, Marsabit, Bomet, Kitui, Narok, Siaya, Garissa, Tana River and Kakamega.

The immense premium attached to the county chief’s seat has made gubernatorial contests “mini presidential elections”.

Political watchers say the massive mobilisation of resources and voters that has started more than one year to the polls points to the value of controlling the devolved units.

The stakes are highest in the 15 counties due to a number of factors.

TANA RIVER

In the volatile Tana River, for instance, the race has assumed an ethnic angle with the majority Pokomo vowing to marshal their numbers and vote out Governor Hussein Dado who is an Orma.

Former Galole MP Dadho Godhana and his counterpart from Garsen Danson Mungatana are said to be preparing to set up campaign secretariats.

With the Wardey group seen as providing the swing vote, the two major blocs will each be seeking to form an alliance with that group to gain an edge.

What, however, worries the residents is the possibility of a repeat of the violence which shocked the nation in 2012, when at least 52 people died in tribal clashes.

In places such as Nairobi, Kitui, Narok, Mombasa, Machakos and Kakamega, the competition will be between the main coalitions - the ruling Jubilee and the opposition Cord - right from the primaries. 

NAIROBI

Being the seat of national power and a melting pot of ethnic groups, Jubilee and Cord both lay claim to Nairobi and, as such, they will be testing their mettle in an election that could go either way.

With Governor Evans Kidero not facing stiff challenge from within Cord, he is likely to face off with one of the Jubilee politicians who hopes to fly the ruling alliance’s flag. 

Senator Mike Sonko, Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and MPs Dennis Waweru and Johnson Sakaja have already lined up for the ticket.

Both Deputy President William Ruto and Cord leader Raila Odinga have expressed their determination to ensure their coalitions clinch the seat.

Prof Ben Sihanya of the University of Nairobi, a political commentator, says it is unfortunate that one of the most important county seats will be filled on the basis of ethnic and political calculations with little regard for the individual capabilities and agenda of aspirants.

“The outcome of these elections will be largely about which coalitions or party leaders the candidates align themselves to and not their manifestos,” he said.

He predicted that candidates in these counties will land the nomination certificates depending on the depth of their pockets.

MURANG'A

In Murang’a, Governor Mwangi wa Iria is threatening to sue Senator Kembi Gitura and Kigumo MP Jamleck Kamau for alleged defamation, claiming they linked him to the goons that have been terrorising area residents.

The fact that the governor is facing investigation over corruption allegations, which he says are politically engineered, gives his opponents fodder to challenge his record.

The divisions between the northern and southern blocs could also feature.

BOMET

Bomet in the Rift Valley presents a somewhat unique case. Were it not for the fallout between Governor Isaac Ruto and the Deputy President, it would have been more of a Jubilee in-house competition within URP rather than the inter-party fight it promises to be.

Governor Ruto, considered a rebel, has opposed the merger of Jubilee parties and formed his own party. 

The fact that he was able to withstand Jubilee’s onslaught in the recent Nyangores civic by-election where Jubilee’s Richard Leitich lost to People Patriotic Party of Kenya’s (PPK) Andrew Maritim implies he may not be a pushover as some people have suggested.

Whether it is National Assembly Deputy Speaker Joyce Laboso, former Konoin MP Julius Kones or a new entrant that is anointed, the contest will be keenly followed.

KIAMBU

No county has so far witnessed the kind of mudslinging seen in Kiambu between Governor William Kabogo and Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu - both allied to Jubilee and President Kenyatta.

From accusations of having fake degrees to that of building militias, the plot can only get murkier.

There could be a similar situation in Siaya and Kisumu where Mr Odinga’s allies will be squaring it out with real prospects of generating negative energy and potentially causing voter apathy that could affect Mr Odinga’s presidential ambitions.

Kisumu Senator Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o has made it clear he wants Governor Jack Ranguma’s seat.

Ranguma, meanwhile, is expected to rely on casting Nyong’o as an outsider who does not belong in the so-called KKK alliance (Kisumo, Kajulu and Kano) who see themselves as the real natives of Kisumu city.

Matters will be complicated even further if, as expected, Kisumu Deputy Governor Ruth Odinga officially throws her hat in the ring.

In Siaya, Governor Cornel Rasanga is likely to face Senator James Orengo. This could present a headache to Mr Odinga in balancing the interests of his allies.

MARSABIT

The situation in Marsabit is more or less the same as that in Tana River County with Borana elders gearing up to endorse one of their own to run against Governor Ukur Yatani.

The current National Hospital Insurance Fund board chairman Mohamud Ali is expected to take on the governor in a place where clan holds great sway in local politics.

The Borana group is mobilising its 17 sub-clans to win the seat as Mr Yatani relies on his Gabra group and other minorities.

The Burji, Konso, Sakuye, Garii, Rendille, Turkana, Wallow, Maasai and Galla are also resident in Marsabit.

KITUI

Former Lands Cabinet Secretary Charity Ngilu, considered the iron lady of Ukambani politics, has her eyes trained on the Kitui seat currently occupied by Dr Julius Malombe.

While she is expected to run on a Narc ticket, Dr Malombe and Senator David Musila will be seeking the nod of party members to hoist the Wiper flag.

Whoever bags the ticket will face off with Mrs Ngilu, again an epic fight that will require Wiper leader and former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka to do serious campaigning for his candidate.

Elders of the Abudwaq clan in Garissa have endorsed former Information PS Ali Korane to run for the seat after eliminating others from the clan so as to present a single candidate to take on Governor Nathif Jama from Auliyan.

Mr Korane is preparing to use the perennial water shortage in the region as his major rallying call.

Mr Korane narrowly lost to Mr Jama in the 2013 polls, having bagged 35,098 votes against 37,910 for Mr Jama.

NAROK

The governor has every reason to be worried about the move by the elders. The script in Narok will not be very different from 2013 when the influential Ntutu family waged an all-out war against Governor Samuel Tunai.

The dominant Purko clan again appears set to front two candidates, a fact which worked to Mr Tunai’s advantage in 2013.

Already, former Information PS Joseph Tiampati and Narok West MP Patrick ole Ntutu have declared their intention to run.

There are, however, efforts by Purko elders to prevail upon one of them to step down.

MOMBASA

In Coast, Mombasa presents a headache to the Cord alliance. Whereas Wiper plans to field a candidate, ODM too has made it clear that it intends to hold on to the seat.

Senator Hassan Omar, who is the Wiper secretary-general, and Nyali MP Hezron Awiti, who is the treasurer of the same party, both want to be governor.

Whoever is picked between them will fight it out with Governor Ali Hassan Joho of ODM.

The Wiper candidate in 2013, Mr Suleiman Shabhal, is among those eyeing the Jubilee ticket.

MACHAKOS

In Machakos, the battle will be between a Wiper candidate who is yet to be identified and Governor Alfred Mutua, who is expected to officially ditch Wiper and stand on the Maendeleo Chap Chap ticket.

His ties to Jubilee and President Kenyatta mean Wiper will be keen to punish him for his defection but, like most of the serving county chiefs, he has the advantage of incumbency.

KAKAMEGA

Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya (ODM Deputy Party Leader) is likely to face Senator Boni Khalwale, also from the Cord family, in a contest that is expected to produce fireworks.

It is one of the cases where Cord principals may find themselves campaigning for different candidates as the senator plans to vie on a Ford-K ticket, the party led by Senator Moses Wetang’ula.

MERU

Meru presents a case of allies-turned-fierce foes as Senator Kiraitu Murungi plots to dislodge Governor Peter Munya.

While a recent poll showed that the Senator has the solid backing of his Imenti sub-tribe, Governor Munya has the Tigania on his side.

In the Kikali (Kiraitu, Kajuju and Linturi) formation that brings Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi and Women’s Representative Florence Kajuju together, the Senator hopes to win over the Igembe group although Mr Munya also boasts strong grassroots networks there.

Mr Linturi exuded confidence that his camp is assured of victory. “We have the numbers. Let the governor enjoy it while it lasts,” he said.