How 2017 elections maths saved ODM rebels from party expulsion

ODM has applied a blend of ruthlessness and benevolence in dealing with rebel members with the regions they come from being the main guide.

Those from Gusiiland and Coast have been treated with somewhat kid gloves while those from Luo Nyanza and Central being punished severely as in the case of nominated MP Isaac Mwaura, Mathare MP Stephen Kariuki and Karachuonyo MP James Rege.

Insiders say much as the unequivocal message was that no dissent would be tolerated, the scale was different for those under disciplinary process depending on where they come from.

Observers point the decision to pardon MPs Richard Onyonka (Kitutu Chache South) and Simon Ogari (Bomachoge Chache) after they apologised to party leader Raila Odinga over their dalliance with Jubilee at the party’s National Governing Council last week was informed by a conviction that kicking them out may scare away the support Mr Odinga needs to propel his State House bid.

Mr Onyonka and Mr Ogari said Jubilee went back on its promises to them.

“ODM believes that votes from Kisii in particular will be key for its presidential candidate and, as such, they want to gather all, of course with a few exceptions like Deputy Governor Joash Maangi,” argues Mr Tom Mboya, a political commentator from Maseno University.

It further explains why Kisii Senator Chris Obure has yet to be reprimanded in equal measure even though he leads the Gusii Unity movement which oscillates towards Jubilee. But, in a reality check, the outfit has scaled down its operations since Jubilee was thrashed by ODM in a ward by-election in the senator’s backyard.

The crackdown on rebels by opposition parties ODM and Wiper led by former Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka – also a Cord principal – has plunged the politicians into a dilemma with prospects of by-elections beckoning. While Wiper has just begun a disciplinary process on those not toeing the line, the Orange party has already expelled 10 from among its ranks.

Those expelled have already appealed the decision through their lawyer Kioko Kilukumi.

On Saturday, ODM Disciplinary Committee Chairman Fred Athuok told the Nation that he was aware some of the expelled members had petitioned the party to have the National Governing Council (NGC) reconsider their case.

“I know through their lawyer they have appealed to ODM but the fact that they have petitioned to rejoin the party does not mean that they are not out,” Mr Athuok said.

Those shown the door include Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya and Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba, who was the party’s secretary-general.
Others are Ms Zainab Chidzuga (Kwale Woman Rep), Mr Samwel Arama (Nakuru West), Mr Masoud Mwahima (Likoni), Mr John Waluke (Sirisia) and Viwandani MCA Samwel Nyang’wara.

The party’s NGC, however, pardoned Marsabit Governor Ukur Yatani and Igembe Central MP Cyprian Kubai.

DISCIPLINARY COMMITTEE

Mr Athuok said the planned meeting with the other group of rebellious MPs summoned to appear before the party’s disciplinary committee last Thursday did not take off since it was re-scheduled to a later date.

The MPs were Mpuru Aburi (Tigania East), Mustafa Idd (Kilifi South), Gideon Mung’aro (Kilifi North), Chachu Ganya (North Horr) and James Rege (Karachuonyo).

Mr Athuok said the expelled leaders may lose their seats if the Registrar of Political Parties gives the nod to the party’s request to de-register them in what would precipitate by-elections. The Registrar, Ms Lucy Ndung’u, has said she’s studying the communication from the party before making a decision.

Party Secretary-General Agnes Zani has urged the politicians to file appeals not later than Thursday next week.

She faulted the legislators’ joint appeals through Lawyer Kilukumi, saying they must do so individually because diverse actions were taken against each of the MPs based on recommendations made by the party.

In public, the legislators have continued to put on a brave face but we have established some are silently trying to reach out to the party leadership for pardon through their lawyer.

Sirisia MP John Waluke said he was not bothered by the threats because he was confident that he would win back his seat on a Jubilee ticket.
“I have no fears. I will retain my seat at 8 am any time the election is called,” he said.

The reality, however, is that no politician wants to be subjected to an election at a time they are gearing up for the General Election next August.

Forcing them to defend their seats will be as disruptive to their programmes as it will to their resources.

Mr Waluke argues that the electorate has mandated him to work with Jubilee and hence will vote him in on the party’s ticket.

Mr Mwaura, who is a nominated MP, is also likely to lose his nomination slot for going against the party rules and regulations. He plans to run for Ruiru Parliamentary seat on a Jubilee Party ticket.

Karachuonyo’s Mr Rege, who had been given a grace period, confirmed that he was still a member of ODM but would seek re-election on a Jubilee Party ticket in 2017.

“The fact that I am working with the government does not mean I have defected to Jubilee Party. I am not there yet,” Mr Rege said.