Uhuru’s rating up in new survey but Cord says results ‘doctored’

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s approval rating has risen to 68 per cent over the last three months, up from 47 per cent last November, according to a new opinion poll published on Thursday.

The survey by Ipsos shows that only 31 per cent of those interviewed disapproved of Mr Kenyatta’s leadership.

The approval rating was highest among Jubilee supporters, at 85 per cent, up from 73 per cent in November.

The poll was immediately disputed by Senator Minority Leader Moses Wetang’ula, who described it as “a ploy to hoodwink Kenyans that Uhuru is still electable”.

“These are cooked figures to depict some imagined popularity on the part of Jubilee,” said Mr Wetang’ula, one of the three top Cord leaders.

According to Ipsos, the poll was conducted between June 4 and 18, around the time that the Cord leaders, was holding rallies to push for the resignation of the electoral commissioners.

The results did not take into account President Kenyatta’s “development” tour of Ukambani between June 10 and 12 or the agreement between the Teachers Service Commission and the Kenya National Union of Teachers (Knut) and the

Kenya Union of Post-Primary Education Teachers (Kuppet) on salaries.

They also did not factor in the deal between Jubilee and Cord to nominate seven members each to a special parliamentary committee on the IEBC.

All these events, if considered, could have influenced the outcome of the survey one way or the other.

The poll indicates that opposition to President Kenyatta’s leadership has waned among Cord supporters.

In November, 75 per cent of Cord supporters interviewed in a similar poll said they disapproved of Mr Kenyatta’s leadership. Three months later, this has dropped to 60 per cent.

Mr Kenyatta’s approval was highest in Jubilee strongholds of central Kenya (88 per cent), Rift Valley (71 per cent) and Eastern (68 per cent).

However, in what is likely to generate some heated debate within the political class, the poll shows that the Cord strongholds of Coast and Western also approve of President Kenyatta’s leadership at 66 and 52 per cent, respectively.

On Thursday, Mr Wetang’ula said that Mr Kenyatta had not done anything to justify his supposed improved ratings in the two regions.

“What has he done in Western to boost his ratings in the Mulembe nation? Even in Coast, the ratings fly in the face of the recent Malindi by-election, where voters returned a resounding victory for Cord,” he said.

Mr Kenyatta also scores favourably in North Eastern (58 per cent) and Nairobi (57 per cent). His approval is lowest in Nyanza, at only 30 per cent.

Respondents who approve of his performance cite infrastructure development (31 per cent), education (15 per cent), the economy (13 per cent) and fighting corruption (eight per cent).

Those who disagree cite his lacklustre fight against corruption (39 per cent), poor economy (19 per cent) and lack of infrastructure (six per cent).

The poll shows that 90 per cent of those who feel that Kenya is headed in the right direction also approve of the President’s performance with only six per cent thinking otherwise.

“Yet, on the other hand, nearly half of those holding a negative view regarding the country’s direction likewise give the President approval (49 per cent). To put it another way, while nearly all of those who feel Kenya is headed in ‘the right direction’ also approve of his recent performance (90 per cent), not even half of those who feel the country’s direction is ‘wrong’ fault his recent performance (44 per cent),” the pollsters explain.

“Such a contradiction underscores two key questions raised earlier. One is, how much of the support enjoyed by such a political leader rests upon identity rather than (attributed) performance? The other is; given the reduced/shared powers of the presidency under the Constitution, how much credit or blame should the President be given for the (perceived) performance of the (national) government?”

JUBILEE GAINS

The poll shows that Jubilee has maintained its advantage over Cord with 46 per cent support against 32 per cent.

This represents a one per cent rise in Jubilee’s support which stood at 45 per cent last November against Cord’s 32 per cent.

Some 73 per cent of the respondents said they either have “a lot” or “some” confidence in the President, as opposed to 59 per cent, who said they had either “a lot” or some” confidence in Deputy President William Ruto.

Fifty per cent of those interviewed said they have “a lot” or “some” confidence in the current Cabinet.

Interestingly, whereas 72 per cent of Jubilee supporters have confidence in President Kenyatta as an individual, only 33 per cent have confidence in his government.

By contrast, only 13 per cent of Cord supporters have confidence in President Kenyatta, and seven per cent in the government.