Plot to craft Nairobi winning team for 2017 jolts Jubilee house in city

It came out as a mere pronouncement by political cheerleaders at an ordinary church fundraiser. The event was not even in Nairobi and the players are not voters in the city.

But the endorsement of Water Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa by four central Kenya MPs to run for the Nairobi governorship has jolted the Jubilee house in the city.

The possible entry of Mr Wamalwa has ignited a political raucous within Jubilee and Cord, with Governor Evans Kidero’s backers, led by Nairobi ODM chairman George Aladwa, keeping a close eye on the development as it could destabilise the solid Cord bloc from western Kenya.

The Wamalwa factor comes in as various political players in Nairobi continue to prepare the ground in an anticipated titanic battle for numbers from various interest groups.

While Dr Kidero is almost assured of his party’s ticket, the Jubilee house will have to pick its flag bearer.

It is not lost on analysts that Dr Kidero rode to power after Jubilee’s grassroots nomination yielded former Embakasi MP and now Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu.

By the time investment banker Jimnah Mbaru, the preferred choice of the middle class, came into the fray, it was too late.

He got 52,000 votes against Mr Waititu’s 618,000 votes. Dr Kidero garnered 692,000 votes.

This week, Jubilee is split in the middle over the Wamalwa candidature. One camp oscillates around Deputy President William Ruto and Mr Waititu.

The second camp constitutes all the city’s Jubilee elected MPs led by Starehe’s Maina Kamanda and Kasarani’s John Njoroge, who also chairs the Nairobi Parliamentary Group.

The Ruto-Waititu camp has managed to pull in a majority of Nairobi MCAs, who have had several meetings with Mr Ruto on the 2017 poll.

This camp began taking shape three months ago when Mr Ruto hosted, in his office, Jubilee leaders at City Hall led by Chief Whip Hashim Kamau (California) and Deputy Minority Leader Patrick Ngaruiya (Kahawa West).

Others at the meeting were Deputy Whip Michael Snaich Wainaina (Kariobangi North), Peter Warutere (Roysambu) and Millicent Mugadi (Ziwani). Minority Leader Abdi Guyo skipped the forum.

COMPETITIVE PROCESS
On Tuesday, this group rose to more than 50 MCAs and was hosted by Mr Wamalwa at his house for dinner.

Mr Ngaruiya said: “As leaders, we engage the DP often. We went to Mr Wamalwa’s house because some city leaders had taken a position insinuating we were hostile to other communities seeking seats in Nairobi.”

Mr Kamau added: “There is nothing wrong if we get a new entrant. The more the merrier. The voter will decide eventually.”

The Kamanda camp revolves around President Uhuru Kenyatta who is said to have called several MPs on Wednesday and Thursday to cool political temperatures.

The inclination of this camp is towards Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru’s candidature.

The group also appears accommodative of hopefuls such as Nairobi Senator Mike Sonko and Nominated MP Johnson Sakaja.

According to Mr Kamanda, the team plans to cling together after nominations.

“Our spirit is that there is something for everyone. Losers will share other positions. Nairobi is big enough for all of us,” he told the Saturday Nation on Thursday.

Other MPs in this camp are (Woman Representative) Rachel Shebesh, Yusuf Hassan (Kamukunji), Waihenya Ndirangu (Roysambu), James Gakuya (Embakasi North), John Ndirangu (Embakasi Central) and Bernard Mutura (Makadara).

Embakasi West MP George Theuri, the only Jubilee MP who had reservations about it, came back to the fold last month.

The MPs categorically rule out a boardroom candidate.

Mr Njoroge said: “No one is stopping anyone from running. However, the Nairobi grassroots voter can never accept a selected candidate. In 2013, we would have chosen Jimnah Mbaru if we had our say.”

Mr Ndirangu added: “We were forced to go with an inferior candidate because he is the one who won the nominations. As much as we want other communities to top up our votes, such a candidate must win a competitive process.”

KIDERO'S PRAYER
Jubilee leaders seem to have been irked by Mr Waititu’s “breach of political protocol” by jumping the gun and endorsing Mr Wamalwa.

They also warned of a project tag on Wamalwa, now that Mr Waititu is eyeing a move to Kiambu.

On Sunday, Kiambu and Nairobi MPs in this camp will hold a rally in Ruiru to state their position on the raging political fire.

The MPs will be hosted by Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, himself in tough battle to defend his seat against Mr Waititu, who is keen to oust him next year.

The rally is expected to castigate those advancing the narrative that the Kikuyu need to support another community for the city’s top seat despite their commanding majority.

But the strategists pushing the Wamalwa candidature see in it a master stroke that would kill two birds with one stone.

First, it could slice a chunk of the western Kenya vote from Cord and tilt it in favour of Jubilee.

Secondly, it would help Jubilee to woo western in the presidential election.

Former Town Clerk Philip Kisia, who ran on a Federal Party of Kenya ticket in 2013, has often said the western community should go for the top seat in Nairobi.

A Jubilee Senate aspirant, Mr Mutinda Kavemba, said the party must put up a line-up representative of the face of Kenya, not only at the county’s four top positions, but also in the 17 parliamentary and 85 ward seats.

Candidates aside, several factors will come into play. Top would be the ability to harness ethnic numbers, resource mobilisation capacity and acceptability by the middle class.

The middle class rarely takes part in nominations but 2013 showed they determine who is eventually elected.

An analysis of the latest Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission figures for Nairobi County shows the Mt Kenya bloc has 836,084 registered voters, in addition to the URP-leaning Kalenjin community with 35,578 voters.

Cord’s key blocs of Luo Nyanza and western Kenya have 266,835 and 257,941 votes, respectively, while Wiper’s Lower Eastern bloc has 142,312 voters.

Political analyst Martin Andati said alliances at the national level would impact on Nairobi’s arithmetic.

“It will be about being pragmatic in alliance building. Community interests will guide this. Other factors will follow.”

Mr Andati said Dr Kidero must pray that Cord’s national composition does not change an inch.

“If Wiper goes away, Kidero is done. If the western Kenya rebellion leads to a crumbled Cord house, he is also done,” said Mr Andati.

GOVERNOR'S FAILURES
Jubilee youth activist Okibo Motari asserted: “The small communities such as Gusii, Asians and Somalis will be critical. For lack of meaningful change in the city, they might protest the Kidero administration.”

Aware of the intricacy of ethnic balancing, the Dagoretti South MP had announced early this year that Jubilee was ready to relinquish at least four parliamentary seats to western Kenya communities in addition to the deputy governorship.

On Friday, Mr Waweru said: “We shall sacrifice anything to ensure our team wins. We shall negotiate and be as inclusive as possible.”

Mr Gakuya said the Mt Kenya bloc needed a top-up of 100,000 votes from all the other communities combined to sail through.

Away from the ethnic chessboard, Dr Kidero will have to contend with the charge by critics that the city has fared badly under his watch.

Heaps of stinking garbage are an eyesore in many estates, while broken sewerage pipes are conspicuous in various residential and commercial buildings.

The unending traffic nightmare linked to a lack of a modern plan to ease the city’s congestion contributes to the governor’s low marks.

However, the county government termed its tenure as a structure-laying phase.

It cited several achievements such as equipping the Mbagathi Hospital with 120 beds and 20 incubators.
Dr Kidero’s health focus has also made several hospitals 24-hour facilities. “Nairobians can be treated throughout the night at Ngara, Karen, Dandora, Riruta and Mathare North health centres,” he said.

He also said the number of garbage trucks had risen to 43 from 13, but 100 are needed to collect 2,400 tonnes of solid waste every day